Separate discussion for the EU election results.
Looking at Dublin Andrews and Doherty will get elected but will also hoover up transfers. I think if Boylan SF gets a strong transfer 40%+ from her running mate she's in with a good chance as I think when Brid Smith is eliminated she will transfer strongly to SF.
I think one of Cuffe and Aodan O'Riordan will be elected but not both. I think the two Boylans will battle for the other seat with Claire Daly's transfers deciding who gets it. The Social Democrat transfers will decide between Labour and the Greens
And look at GERMANY ..
This is the result of today’s European Parliament elections in Saxony, one of Germany’s eastern regions. Far-right pro-Russian AfD got 41%. Far-left pro-Russian BSW (Sahra Wagenknecht) 12%. Scholz’ SocDem would not even get into the parliament with their 4,8%. In September, we have local elections in Saxony. We will have a direct Moscow governance in this region.
Ivana uses a lot of words to say nothing. Probably a very nice lady all the same.
No, that's not how it works at all. Count 7 can still be distributing second preferences etc.
On the second count it can only go to second preferences obviously but after that it's basically a crapshoot and yes it goes to the next available candidate.
Is PR-STV not tauught in CSPE in secondary school?
Whos yerman on RTE that looks like the lad out of Circle of Friends
Are the Independent Alliance lumped in with the "Independents" or the "Others"?
Talking up a dead party
That'd be 5 seats - If Andrews and Doherty are in, then Lynn Boylan is reliant on running mate transfers, Daly on Smith transfers to her not Lynn, O'Riordain and Cuffe hoping to be last man standing between them, and Niall Boylan hoping for transfers from all the smalls.
That's 4 fighting for 2 - and I just have a feeling Cuffe and O'Riordain will keep picking up transfers from everywhere, while others get lots or none.
east(ern) germany is tradtionally right wing, would be expected there.
My mistake, sorry.
Great shout
Indeed, hardly surprising for east Germany to be swinging further right.
They have no surplus, still almost 10k shirt of quota each, but so far ahead that almost certain to get there
Its not like they have been counting for the last 2 days i suppose
Take 3 minutes out of your day and educate yourself
Latest estimates in EU .. ( Euronews )
Be careful here.
The 8th count is not linked to 8th prefs, 9th count to 9th prefs - that is false, that is a wrong way to think about PR-STV.
A second pref can come into play in any count, after the 1st.
Yep mea culpa on this one. I blame being tired
Ya it goes to the next available person who can get the transfers
Warning signs everywhere in France. Politicians need to start dealing with societal issues especially immigration.
Everyone looks far-right to a rabidly self-hating, no-borderist, climate socialist. There is nothing unusual going on here.
Far right did very poorly in Finland - The Finns party are in the government since 2023, but only got 7.6% of the votes (they got 17.5% in last year's GE) and got a single seat out of the 15 available (down from 2). Left Alliance, who have never had a successful election, went from 8.2% in the general elections to 17.3% and three seats (up from 1). Even the Greens who were supposed to get massacred got two seats (no change).
I think Lynn Boylan will get enough votes from Doolan to keep her clear of the 4th/5th place eliminator.
Cuffe would do well from FFG if either of those had a surplus, but there wont be much of a surplus to distribute.
So it will come down to how the also-rans transfer. There are 35,000 potential transfers below Aisling Considine which could in theory significantly alter the 3-6 running order, but I suspect it will be a rising tide lifts all boats. I've a feeling O'Riordain will get more transfers that Cuffe, I think Labour are picking up more votes in these elections than the Greens, even if the Greens aren't doing as bad as feared.
I don't mind which of the 2 get in as long as that Russian shill Daly doesn't get in.
Ya the only one that really confused me until I really looked into it was how surplus worked
State of play in Germany .. Greens got hammering ( Euronews )
Something I never understood about the surplus distribution system. Let's say quota is 1000, candidate A gets elected with 1500. Suppose the electorate on one side of a constituency gave 500 number 2s to candidate B and the other síde of the constituency gave candidate C 500. Well, how do you choose the surplus fairly?
Italy from RAI Uno .. giorgia meloni's party topping the list
Seems to be up to the electoral officer. Irish democracy.
Read my post again four seats. Andrews Doherty one if the Boylans ( suspect SF Boyland to shade it) and one of Cuffe and O'Riordan.
On the left you have the hard left SF's Boylan, Brid Smith and Claire Daly abd the soft left mainly Cuffe, O'Riordan and the SD vote. They each more or less a quota a piece. Votes will transfer between but a good chunk will stay within these blocks. The fly in the ointment is that the ultra right transfer to Niall Boylan strongly there is 3-4 with 15-20 k votes. If Daly transfers to him he may overtaje Lynn Boylan however unlikely
I call it Andrews, Doherty, Lynn Boylan and I think O'Riordan will shade it over Cuffe because he will get more transfer espefrom the SD
