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The accelerating fall in Sinn Féin support

Kermit.de.frog

Another poll today showing a firm downward trend for SF among voters. Down 6 points to 28%. What do you put it down to?

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2024/02/08/irish-times-poll-sinn-fein-support-hits-lowest-level-in-three-years-falling-by-six-points/

Housing crisis? - ongoing but the public see a lot more units under construction now. The public may not like the cynicism of SF politicians objecting to housing up and down the country.

Economy? Full employment, healthy surpluses - too much of a gamble for a population that overall is comfortable?

Immigration? - SF vulnerability here given their traditional voter base. Given the rise in support for Independents it would seem this could be a huge issue for them and the party stance does not reflect many working class voters.

The north? - most people don't care.

...

What do you put the flight from SF down to?

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Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122221531#Comment_122221531

What it does to competitiveness in the economy, the damage to young people etc far out weighs the small gain you mention.

House prices that reflect economic fundamentals and long term economic stability is always a good thing.

The Mathematician

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122221867#Comment_122221867

Yes, but it is all probability. There is a much higher chance of the error being within 1% than being between 2% and 3%. There is also a small probability of the error being more than 3%.

However all this is under the assumption that the sample is random, and to my mind, this is the real problem with polls. Polling companies try to account for this, but it is not easy.

[Deleted User]

Always look at trends. A one off poll is fairly meaningless.

SF have been trending downwards.

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122221744#Comment_122221744

Oh… Well that's kind of.. meh then. Essentially, other than trending, it's meaningless with a 3 percentage point margin of error.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122221740#Comment_122221740

I have been both RedC and the now defunct/merged IPSOS political polled over the last two decades.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122221739#Comment_122221739

It means 23-29. Polling is not that exact a science.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122221721#Comment_122221721

Polls are always effectively useless

You would have to question who they poll in the first place, to me if would suggets they have a list of people and keep on bashing that same list, with the number of polls coming out over the last few years and if it was total random at this stage the majority of population would have been hit, but I have never found a single person who has been hit

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122221721#Comment_122221721

That's 3 percentage points. I would have assumed the margin of error was percentage based, not percentage points. So 26% +/-3% would be between (26*0.97)% and (26*1.03)%

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122221512#Comment_122221512

No. Simply, NO. Any party who takes any measure to reduce the value artificially of my house has lost my vote for life.

boardise

If a poll reports a margin of error of 3 % -does this mean that a party with 26% could be on 23, 26 or 29% while a Party with 23% could be on 20,23 or 26%. The parties could be level or either could be 3% ahead. This would mean that the poll is effectively useless.

standardg60

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122221512#Comment_122221512

House prices are decided by how much people are buying them for, if they're buying them, how are they 'too High'?

ednwireland

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122221512#Comment_122221512

that really depends on what you paid.

are the banks going to reduce your mortgage to match ? Will they let you move house with negative equity (they didn't before)

[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122221531#Comment_122221531

I would add to that, any young person who has bought a home in the last few years and fears being pushed into negative equity, anyone considering trading up/down and thinks the value of their home may fall more than the value of the home they are buying, anyone who understands that if house values fall, developers will stop building and lenders will stop financing, anyone with even a rudimentary understanding of economics/lived through the last recession when property prices crashed and unemployment/emigration spiked etc,etc

run_Forrest_run

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122221512#Comment_122221512

not if:

you own your own house outright
you are a landlord
you are part of the Government receiving revenue from property tax and stamp duty

[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122221512#Comment_122221512

The more important questions you should be asking yourself is, what would have to happen in our economy for that type of catastrophic collapse in house prices, and what makes you think that if such a collapse occurred, that the less well paid/unemployed would firstly hold on to their jobs, would banks lend for houses dramatically falling in value/would people be able to afford a 300k home?.

That is why she was ridiculed.

Geuze

Surely we all want lower house prices?

We are all agreed that house prices are too high, aren't we?

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122221480#Comment_122221480

I think the milk is well and truly spilt on that one. They told every single homeowner in Dublin they were going to basically half the value of their main asset and the inheritance they'd leave to their children as a result.

They not only made themselves unelectable for home owners but whole families.

Incompetent beyond belief and now you're saying "they meant to say something else" which makes them look even more incompetent!

Let's be real, there has always been a nagging concern in the back of people's minds as to the standard of some SF reps and it's not policy related, more ability at a more basic level. Once you get past the top 2 or 3 TDs (and that's being generous) you're in pretty sparse territory regarding people you'd be putting much faith in to actually be able to just do certain roles.

[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122221480#Comment_122221480

Perhaps if you read the original Times article, you would see that she clearly stated average house prices in Dublin, not affordable housing.

For some reason the link function has stopped working, the interview was published in the Times on December 20th.

Geuze

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122221442#Comment_122221442

The 300k refers to the selling price of the 4,000 affordable houses that SF plan to build in Dublin.

It does not refer to general house prices.

ednwireland

in 2011 there were 230000 homes in negative equity, the last of those were expected to be clear in 2020.

that's what reducing the house price looks like.

[Deleted User]

Mary Lou just rowed back on another SF housing viewpoint. A couple of weeks ago she wanted average house prices in Dublin to fall to €300k, when it was explained what the prevailing economic conditions would be necessary for such a drop, and the number of people who would be plunged into negative equity, she was ridiculed. Now she says she meant the average price of affordable housing, six months later.

They really are utterly incompetent, housing should be the easiest way of attacking the government, but SF suck at it.

Rosahane

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122214089#Comment_122214089

About 18 years or so ago the Mrs and daughter were invited to a James Connolly memorial event, can't remember what it was but was in Moore St and invitational Connolly family or something. Daughter was scheduled to sing the "Daughter of Connolly" song so they were at the front of the audience.

MLD barged through to the front row between them - no invitation or connection but just wanted to be noticed.

Says it all really!

Water John

Margin of error depends on sample used, but 3% plus or minus would be fairly normal. Trend over a number of polls by the same co are good indicators of direction. Saying SF is up or down 1% means little or nothing.

Beta Ray Bill

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122218721#Comment_122218721

What's the Margin?
10%?

hotmail.com

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122218590#Comment_122218590

The things you mention all fell within in the margin of error.

Beta Ray Bill

I remember something like this happened in a couple UK Vote a few years back.
There was weeks and weeks of media polls saying that Britain looks set to remain in the EU (I think it was like 150 polls done and only 55 wanted to leave)

And then in the 2015 there was set to be a hung parliament based on the election polls, But the conservatives got nearly 40% of the vote.

Polls can be wrong, especially when the result of the election can mean a huge change to the status quo (which is what a Sinn Fein led government could mean - I get this is a local election, but it's an indicator). And there are many rich and powerful people out there that might not want that.

we'll know next week for sure

zerosquared

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122212392#Comment_122212392

Sounds like the plan is to import half of Gaza here out of solidarity with peoples front of Judea and then have “demographics take care of it”

Ozvaldo

The vote yes for on the referendums has finished them off-no longer a relevant option imo.

Galwayguy35

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122214089#Comment_122214089

Its like McDonald and Doherty are competing to see who can shout louder at Harris in the Dail while at the same time saying nothing of value.

2 years ago they would have nearly had an overall majority if there had been an election.

They are a party in disarray these days.

Francis McM

It is interesting to see Sinn Fein getting Pat Cullen to stand for them in Fermanagh-South Tyrone. She is an ex nurse and a.f.a.i.k. to date has refused to condemn the murder of innocents.

If she wins in Fermanagh and South Tyrone, she will – as is the policy for S.F. – not take her seat in Westminster. Nor will it bring change: SF has held that seat by the slimmest of margins ( 57 votes or something) for most of the past few decades. And see how health care in N.I. has slipped in the past few decades, nearly as bad as here now. Although many thousands of people from as far away as Cork / Kerry have gone north for medical treatment, unable to get it in this state.

https://www.echolive.ie/corknews/arid-41086942.html

The former Royal College of Nursing chief, Pat Cullen, coming out as a Republican and now suddenly standing as a SF candidate in Westminster elections will further erode public trust in supposedly non-political bodies.

Especially as the main town in Co. Fermanagh is Enniskillen, which became famous ( infamous?) worldwide due to the bombing by SF/IRA. Condemned by everyone worldwide at the time from the President of USA to President of Russia. Cullen was a nurse in the eighties:does she believe there were "any alternative" to murder of a student nurse by the armed wing of the political party she now represents?

Will be interesting to see how or if it affects S.F. support or not, especially in the Westminster elections.