Also Trump has become a felon since he last said he wasnt standing so id bet that also has something to do with it.
farage change of mind probably influenced by huge turnout for tommy Robinson march.
Is that Reform UK the company, or Reform UK the party?
and the Mirror and maybe the Independent, but how much influence do they really have?
Readership of newspapers has declined enormously and most younger people in particular are more influenced by Tik tok and instagram than the Times
he probably wants to keep his 100% record intact.
Hopefully he does!
I think it's really as simple as he had no intention of standing but the backlash from not only his decision not to stand but his reasoning that he would be too busy helping Trump I think was a wake up call for him.
Combine that with Tice being an awful performer and the lively scenario that despite reasonable poll numbers Reform wouldn't gain any seats.
Lastly, he announced he wouldn't stand too early. Left him nothing to negotiate with. Don't be surprised if we hear about another deal with the Tories a la 2019.
Farage already getting called out for this
MeMeanwhile The new Tory attack ad had a few ahem flaws that won't go down with the "patriots".
I wonder how many people in the UK actually know that the flag is not symmetrical.
The people who it is designed to appeal to probably do.
Never mind the UK. I didn’t know it wasn’t symmetrical and could be flown wrong. If I’ve read wiki right, the white part is over the red on the flagpole side in the crosses, which when you have that figured out, it’s obvious what’s wrong.
Or that most of the time, it's not the "Union Jack".
I never knew that
Me either but yes I see it now. Still a horrible flag do.
I think that one is known now but Jack is just accepted as the norm.
It's like when people point out the country is called Chile and not Chilli. Everyone knows but the wrong name has become accepted.
Just like Trump Farage is for Farage and Farage only. He's running because he thinks he'll be elected, and this time he's probably right. The goal thereafter is to take control of what remains of the tory party.
This thread has made for interesting reading, seems like the focus was more on what Starmer and Labour is and isn't than what the Tories are. Shows you where they are just about, people being sick of them after 14 years in charge and the absolute state they are in. Add in the gaff prone start to the elections it has been terrible for the Tories. Sunak looking like a drowned rat in his announcement of the election, having councilors pose to ask questions. Policy announcements that will alienate the next cohort of voters and their parents, being caught out again and again on the trail with the location selections (Titanic in Belfast and being asked if Sunak is in charge of a sinking ship) and being filmed with a Lib Dem float going past you today.
Then the announcement that Reform will have Farage at its head and he will be running. I was actually worried with him not standing that it would weaken Reform and what they are poised to do. They will take votes from the Conservatives and this will really hurt them. It means that Sunak will now have to fight Labour to his left and Reform to his right. He is not going to win any votes in the centre so he will pivot even further right which will make him even more unelectable than he currently is.
The 2019 majority was made even more stark by the Brexit Party running only in seats where Labour was vulnerable and giving the Tories a free shot in their own marginal seats. That may not have been the first time tactical voting was used, but it was where it probably was the most stark and damaging. If voters do not lose focus and go tactical to get the Tories out then it will be ugly for them. I think this will refocus the minds of those looking to do this as a sharp turn to the right will remind people what is at stake. Then again in this mad world you could still see a pact between the Tories and Reform and that would really shake things up.
You'd have to think it will cost the Tories a lot of marginal seats. Tory percentages will go down, leaving the way for Labour MPs in those constituencies to get elected.
Yep, I was wondering whether something like that was behind it. Anyway from the FT…
I'm torn between YouGove and MiC.
That seems a good spread, we don't know whether Farage standing will move the needle one way or the other against the Tories.
Given that the reported support comes from Tory supporters and very little from Labour supporters, it can only harm the Tories.
It could also help the likes of the Dolphin and Lord Bucket Head.
Presumably at least one of those two will now nominate in Clacton.
I'm just lookng through some of the odds for the Constituencies and i think the bookies have made an error with the odds for Portsmouth North.
Basically can get Penny Mordaunt at Even money to be re-elected. She's safe as houses.
Also, you can be gaurenteed, counties like Surrey, Berkshire will always vote Tories. It wouldn't matter how bad they have performed.
Constituency polls have her out on her ear.
Only 4 Tory councillors left in Portsmouth.
wowsers.
Thanks for the heads up. And i'd have considered her one of the ones that aren't too bad.
Ive seen one poll suggesting she is only 2-3% ahead of Labour but that poll has reform on like 1% which I find hard to believe, electoral calculus puts reform on 14% which will leave her mid 20s and gives Labour an easy win, i reckon shes toast.
Two very interesting voting maps here, really showing the gigantic disparity between voting demographics and who the Tories are pandering to these days. The utter wipeout of the SNP with the Over 65s is also quite intriguing, showing that perhaps Time is on the nationalists' side; will certainly depend on what Labour brings to the (Scottish) table in the coming years.
Meanwhile, further proving that we have somehow dropped into a scripted reality and politicians aren't remotely configured or trained to wing it, Grant Schapps phoned a Sky News reporter… as the reporter was live on air talking about Schapp's own potential loss of seat - and the reporter took the call! Schapps then hung up in what presumably was a moment of pant-filling panic at Tory HQ.
I accept this is the Politics forum, and of course something like this isn't remotely germane to the overall tone of discussion, but sometimes you gotta sit back and regard just how hamfisted this party has become.
Polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice has said Nigel Farage’s decision to take over as leader of Reform UK will deal a significant blow to the Conservatives, potentially costing them as many as 60 seats.
Mr Curtice noted Mr Farage’s announcement, as first revealed exclusively by The Independent at Monday lunchtime, came on the same afternoon as the release of YouGov’s first MRP poll for this election, which has the Conservatives down nearly 20 points in the vote and at risk of losing three in five of their seats.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/john-curtice-nigel-farage-tories-election-b2556181.html
This could be very interesting. The Brexit party stood down candidates in Tory seats in 2019 but, if it can field them this time, it could do an awful lot of damage now that Farage is the leader. It's been infuriating to see the left/liberal/social democratic vote splinter every time. It'll be interesting to see it on the right.
Tories have long stopped caring.
What it may well do is see defections from the Tories over to Reform.
You wonder if the polls start showing this in a couple of weeks whether a pact will be reached between the 2 parties? Will there be enough time by then or will the parties have committed to their lists and they will not be able to withdraw at that stage?
WHile I don't agree with this behaviour I get the feeling he may get this kind of reception in many places he visits.
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