Old thread seems to be permanently locked. It will be interesting if anything can come of this at last.
Threadbanned Posters:
You're asking a lot of questions. Maybe fire up a few answers of your own.
You may have missed mine.
I believe it's unlikely that Sophie was involved in or got caught up in the drugs trade and was murdered because of it
I believe the gardai had it right with their theory and bailey is the likely culprit
What percentage likelihood would you give it being Bailey, in your opinion?
Based on what exactly out of curiosity, because there is no evidence linking Bailey to the murder, just lies, misinformation, destroying evidence that may indicate his innocence and allegedly bribing people to vecome witnesses?
What you're alluding to here @Deeec , even though maybe not intentionally, is plain old misogyny. If you become more objective and eliminate the unlikely scenario of a intended sexual murder (for which there is no evidence at all), then suddenly the case is blown wide open pointing completely away from Bailey. The bottom line is that the gardai made it up out of thin air, and people are still swallowing it up.
Most likely him
I said it before . Don't have exact percentages in mind
Drugs and hired hitman are unlikely possibilities
How is it most likely him?
There is no evidence that he actually knew her. There is no evidence that he knew she was in the area at the time and there is no evidence that he knew that she was (unusually) there alone.
Even the more likely time of the murder does not suit the Bailey theory.
You've made your decision based on what the gardai told the media and which has been torn to shreds by multiple DPPs.
Why are you unwilling to give a percentage, do you not know your own mind?
Why are you looking for a percentage
Just interested if people on this thread are acting in good faith and willing to actually put a quantitative value on their own beliefs or, just prefer to shoot down other people's opinions, contributing nothing. If you're not willing to put a percentage then I would put you in the latter group.
Fire up percentages yourself for the different scenarios
Sophie doesn't need to be involved or caught up in the drugs trade. But she could be a innocent victim of drugs related activity.
I keep mentioning this here, the media reported that Sophie had met with two French men who were hiding out from a criminal gang. Do you accept that Sophie could have been a victim of this criminal gang looking for these men?
Your scenario is being "caught up in drugs trade"
Do I think it's a likely scenario. No
I already did, earlier in this thread.
Its a long thread what are they
I asked you first
You said they're posted fire them up again
Im not alluding to anything - you are right though that misogyny could be the motive. The poster Drury has repeatedly posted that Sophie was an 'attractive woman visitor' and has implied that Bailey is definitely the culprit in their opinion based on this assumption. They have not defined though what was 'attractive' to Bailey about Sophie. The media sold papers by implying that Sophie was a stunningly beautiful, promiscuous, famous film maker - reality is she was probably none of these things.
If it can be shown that Sophie met with 2 French criminals, then this could be very relevant. I wonder if anyone saw this meeting? And when* it happened?
In December 1996 she was only here for three days before the tragedy. Much of her time is accounted for, but this meeting might have occurred on an earlier visit.
Or it may have been cooked up out of thin air by the tabloid Press. But all leads, however unlikely, deserve investigation.
This is what I said about Bruno as an example. <1%.
I would say similar for a hitman, perhaps 1%
For Bailey I would say <10% based on what I've seen here, and it has been dropping since I started reading this thread (where it was at 30-40%)
The unknown DNA I would put at around 50% personally.
Any other scenarios you would like me to assess?
What about your percentage then @drury..
Did i say that bailey is the culprit based on Sophie being attractive ?
That's certainly not my view anyhow
Look over your posts - you repeat that Sophie was an 'attractive visitor' again and again without developing your theory further.
If you are not saying Bailey murdered her because she was attractive to him in some way then what the hell are you trying to say. Tell us!
From the media report the guards thought it was possible, it was they that mooted it. Why then do you think it not a likely scenario if the media reports are true and the guards do?
The other interesting snippet from that media report that I mentioned previously is a single line that stated something about guards investigating a jealous wife of a male friend of Sophie's.
Daniel stated that Sophie was quite taken with Tomi Ungerer. Of course I am in no way making any connection between that media snippet and the only people Sophie visited that weekend.
You're totally misreading my posts
The fact that she was an attractive french woman merely stoked the interest
Its not that which links bailey to the crime or the reason for the murder
I already stated the reasons for the murder -rejection and violent initial encounter
What links bailey to the crime is everything in the public domain and whatever else isn't
The dodgy case file etc
That's why I make him the likely killer and no more than that
Is your scenario that Bailey randomly walked over to Sophie's cottage around 2-3am on the off-chance of sex?
I think you are missing the point - I want you to discuss why you think Bailey was attracted to Sophie - what stoked his interest?
What was so special about Sophie that makes you think he went there late at night/early morning, risking that she wasnt even alone?
How tf do i know exactly?
Probably knew her as said by many witnesses
May have known she was alone
May have been attracted to her , thought of himself as a poetic type ?
My theory is only what I believe is most likely
I believe bailey lied about the alibi and knowing her
That a large percent of the belief that he killed her
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