Old thread seems to be permanently locked. It will be interesting if anything can come of this at last.
Threadbanned Posters:
I don't know Irish law that much.
Seems fair. And since the house was vacant for 90% of the time, I can see how the locals might have been tempted to short-cut across it.
What I'm hazily seeing (in the eye of imagining) is a car driving up, someone opening the lane gate, driving through, turn the car, and stopping in front of the same gate while the driver hops out and goes into Sophie's little field. (Why?)
She sees this from her window and decides to confront them. Pulls on her boots and heads down towards the gap into the lane.
Remonstrates with whoever-it-was ("Get off my land!") - and this goes BADLY wrong. They grab a nearby loose block, a slab from the wall, and commit a horrible violent crime.
That's roughly When and How as I picture events.
The Why and the Who are missing.
The why is missing cos it probably didn't happen
But she WAS found dead, in her outdoor shoes, beside the open gates, later that morning; something definitely happened.
Ya but not some dispute over access or random incident at gate
The manner of her murder and the fact that she was an attractive woman visitor points in a particular direction
In the absence of evidence I don't see why the need to focus on unlikely theories
You've answered the Why in your own post.
"Remonstrates with whoever-it-was ("Get off my land!") - and this goes BADLY wrong. They grab a nearby loose block, a slab from the wall, and commit a horrible violent crime."
As for the Who in your scenario, someone who believed they had a right to be there, but Sophie obviously disagreed?
So you appear to be both ruling the Bailey theory in and then out???
?
I believe bailey is rightly the chief suspect
Despite there being absolutely nothing to link him to Sophie? Despite there being no evidence that he knew her or that she was even in town, he drunkenly wandered a few miles to her house on a winters night in the off chance that he'd get his leg over? When a stranger came to her house looking for sex, she put on her boots and walked them down to the gate? When he'd finished killing her, he walked to the sea in the opposite direction to clean himself off before making the long journey home and all the while he didn't get a shred of her DNA on his clothes (which the gardai took from him)?
It's a really stupid theory, especially if one looks at the more credible theory that it was a morning murder and not a night-time murder
So you think she was murdered because she was attractive. But was she really that attractive and irresistible to men? The recent pictures of Sophie before her death show an average looking 39 year old woman, in fact probably a bit dowdy if I be honest. Yes she was beautiful in her younger years but her recent pictures show a ordinary plain woman. This notion that she was an amazingly beautiful, sex mad woman who had men falling at her feet was put forward by the media to sell newspapers but its not true. If Bailey wanted sex there were other willing women in wacky West Cork! Now I say this as a woman so maybe a man can give us a different opinion on Sophies looks.
I dont mean to be insulting to Sophie either with this post but I do think its worth discussing. Also I do realise that the fact she was a woman alone could be a factor but very few people knew she was alone - the Ungerers, the Hellens, Daniel Du Plantier, possibly Alfie and the publican. Bailey wouldnt have known for certain that she was alone though.
I don't think she was murdered because she was attractive
Being an attractive foreign visitor probably provoked the interest
The initial encounter and rebuke probably provoked the murder
But you have no evidence that Bailey knew she was staying there, or that she was there alone. It makes absolutely no sense and is only in people's consciousness because some members of AGS went around spreading rumours about his involvement
So what was the motive then in your opinion if you dont think it was sexual
People viciously murdering a person because they were caught going through that persons field is far fetched.
It just doesn't happen.
I know people will come back with examples of neighbours killing each other over disputes and access etc, but they are the results of issues that fester for years, decades and even generations.
Usually it is a change in circumstances that causes an issue to blow up, change in ownership etc. "Bull McCabe" style (that would be a good username).
In any case we're talking about trespassing, which would be an offence against Sophie herself. More evidence points towards that than a sexual crime. All hypothetical of course.
I see this pretty much the same. I find it hard to believe that Bailey's motive would have been sexual. That is if he did it.
Furthermore, the killer would have to have known that Sophie was at her cottage at a time of the year when she would normally not visit, and the killer would have to have known that Sophie was alone.
In rural communities people do talk, but I don't think word spread around that fast. In the end, it's only the people you've mentioned who knew for certain, that she was here, and alone. That also doesn't mean they all are the killers.
Of course sexual assault cannot be ruled out; it is a regular factor in murders of women.
But there was NO sign of sexual interference on the body; and no disturbance at the house. No bodily fluids, no sign of struggle, no DNA of an unwanted visitor.
Looks like whatever happened, happened in the lane beside two open gates, in outdoor shoes, and a dressing-gown over pyjamas. The dressing gown had come OFF and was caught in the brambly hedge, duly noted. Sexual motive, maybe? But a neighbour might have driven by at any time…and Sophie's own car was parked beside the house; her assailant couldn't be sure that there was no-one at the house, even possibly watching.
Nothing can be called "probable" or "improbable" - ALL of it is extremely unusual, to say the least.
What is the least elaborate explanation that fits the few known facts?
It's not just a sexual assault, it would be a sexual murder, which is exceedingly rare. 1-2 out of every hundred murders. Given that there hadn't been a murder of any sort in a hundred years makes it statistically at least 1 in around 10,000 likelihood. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
Already explained above
Rage fuelled killing sparked by rejection and an initial violent encounter
Sex may/may not have been the major motive for the visit to her house. There can be more to an attraction than simply sex.
I think the possible motives have been often discussed. There is no real evidence pointing in any direction on what was more or less likely.
you could add
and possibly more motives to the list.
If the motive was known it would go a long way towards solving the crime, but it isn't known and there seems to be little if any evidence to narrow down the possible motive or killer(s).
Some theories are more likely than others
Hitman sent by husband is unlikely . Bjsc said so and i agree
Drug connection is unlikely .Another fanciful idea imo
bjsc also detailed several points which suggests a morning murder, and use of a vehicle… which is contrary to the AGS scenario for Bailey that you seem to favour.
The AGS scenario for Bailey is a fanciful idea.
You were doing ok there until the last paragraph where you felt the need to point score
I don't disagree with the first paragraph
I would disagree on that. Also Bjsc is not infallible. First of all, we have no evidence pointing into any direction that one story is more likely than the other. And second, the focus on one specific scenario ( Bailey ) is one of the main reasons why the case was never solved in the first place.
Sophie's husband had by far the strongest financial motive and that can't ever be denied. Plus at the time of the murder he already had a relationship with his next wife, she gotten pregnant soon after as well. He also didn't bother to travel to Ireland after the murder even though he was her husband, and closest next of kin. He also would quite possibly have known that Sophie was alone that night, they spoke on the phone.
The drug theory is probably mostly "softened" by the fact that nobody on the peninsula lived a lifestyle beyond their normal means, no big fancy cars, luxury properties or frequent and extensive travel to exotic locations that could have stood out. Whoever was involved with drugs only may have made a small amount of money on the side. The drug theory is probably more in relation to avoid a jail sentence or cover up some corruption of those (possible guards ) being involved rather than big time money. Alfie and Leo had contacts with drugs as well, Alfie was a known user, and Leo had a brush with the law regarding drugs. So it's not impossible to think that there was a connection to her murder.
Yes bjsc is not infallible
Given the lack of evidence we have to speculate as to the likely scenarios
As I said imo given the brutal manner of her death and the fact she was an attractive visitor makes the rebuffed visitor scenario likely
There doesn't seem to be anything pointing to the husband aside from the fact that he may have profited financially by her death
We just have no evidence, thus I can only examine certain motives.
What's also unclear to this date, is how it really happened. She was murdered by the gates, that's the most common knowledge we have. How come there is her blood on the door of the house? Was she injured there? Or was it the killer returning to the house? And for what reason?
And if it wasn't Alfie and Shirley, how come they didn't hear anything at all? But in the end, it could also have been a very silent killing as well, like Sophie knocked out upon the first blow and that totally unexpected to her.
…and if her lover or son had answered the door at 3am, what then? Would his excuse for being there be that he had walked miles for a cup of sugar?
What photographs do you refer to?
Why do you think a drug connection is unlikely?
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