Nobody sees Laura Keyes as favourite. Dee Ryan is running as the FF candidate which automatically makes her one of the favourites.
That's a big presumption. I'm sure Laura Keyes is someone's favourite and she will get some number 1s.
See, we are in different spheres, as I would not consider anyone running for FF or FG or Greens as anywhere near the tops. Those parties have garnered no favours the last few years. The political machines only work if the wheels are oiled, but we've seen them falling apart at the top level in recent years, which would affect those who had family traditions of affiliations. Those under 40 who can't move out of their parents will not be inclined to put any of those parties in charge of the county.
A lot of her support being women and "being well known among women" are two very different things.
Some people who like Keyes might call her a front runner on social media but she isn't one.
Look at the regular political polls. SF, FF and FG are consistantly the big three and are a long way ahead of the likes of Labour/Greens/SD. And at the last locals 5 years ago, FF and FG took 24 of the 40 seats. A candidate from one of those three parties will be the mayor.
Also I'm not sure you understand the concept of somebody being favourite for a position, if you think being 'someones favourite' makes then the actual favourite.
You know what, I'll leave you all to have your conversations without my input. I'll watch the race unfold from the outside and see where the chips land.
If I was a betting man, my money would be on Maurice first and then Helen but who knows someone else might throw their name into the cart and upset all the apples.
For an independent to win it would have to be a huge public figure and one that I don't think exists in Limerick right now.
For smaller parties they would need to be riding some Spring tide or Green wave which none of them are right now.
I think your right about Quinlivan unless FG have some mad ace up the sleeve.
Don't forget Labour!
?
They got less than 5% first preference votes in the last general election.
Whoever runs for them would need a huge swing in their votes to be in the running to be elected. Remember, this is first past the post, like the presidential election or by elections
The vote is not first past the post and neither is the presidential election.
Ok, probably worded it poorly, there's only one winner unlike electing councillors or TDs in normal elections. For the DEM it will be the person who reaches the quota first or the last person standing after everyone else is eliminated.
Maybe they're trying to convince John Kiely to run although the timing wouldn't be great and aren't the rumours saying he's being courted by FG as a GE candidate? Or is it FF? Either way I think it'd ruin his legacy - don't do it John!!
Labour councillor Conor Sheehan is the latest to throw his hat in the ring.
https://www.limerickleader.ie/news/home/1471667/breaking-new-entry-in-race-to-become-directly-elected-mayor-of-limerick.html
Unless FG throw put in an outstanding candidate it's Maurice Quinlivans to lose.
He'll certainly start ahead of the posse, if WO'D get's his vote out for the FF candidate then that person might catch Maurice but Willie's vote is a personal vote and doesn't always transfer.
Dint think Willie has the pull that he used to.
My prediction is the big 3 FF SF and FG will get the most first preference votes
FF and FG voters will give 2nd preference votes to the other so unless MQ gets 45-50% of first preferences we will have a FF or FG mayor. There is no question that SF and MQ are still growing in popularity but I don't see them winning this race
I agree that WOD doesn't have the pull he used to but I do think he would beat HOD and then take her transfers
Willie would probably win if running but I don't think he has enough pull to get another candidate over the line just by helping to canvas.
Two quick queries about the election of a DEM in Limerick?
I presume all residents of the county have a vote?
What voting system is being used? PR?
You mean on the campaign trail for another candidate? Would any FFer have the pull for that? I think not but in a case where it comes to the least worst candidate
Daniel Butler is the only potential candidate I've heard of so far. Will he risk it? He might like being a councillor and would be a shoe in to get re-elected there but if he fails in a mayoral bid then that's that until a GE election bid? Same for EOD and Conor Sheehan.
I assume so given that Labour is running Conor Sheehan.
Two quick queries about the election of a DEM in Limerick?I presume all residents of the county have a vote?What voting system is being used? PR?
Everyone who can vote in the 6 electoral districts for the local elections can vote in the mayoral election.
The voting system is the single person version of PR:STV, which is the same one used in presidential elections and by elections.
Anyone registered to vote in a Limerick constituency I presume - not necessarily a resident. Yes it's PR
I suspect you can as you can run in more than one Dail constituency, you might recall Peter Casey did so in 2020.
The rule in the GE is (if you win both) you pick which place to represent and a byelection is triggered in the other constituency. I assume whoever is on your list takes over the vacant seat in this situation
DEM candidates can also run and are running in the local elections. Presumably if someone wins the DEM and wins a seat they would choose the DEM. Both Elisa and Conor are running in both.
I think every councillor is running in both. If they win they can co-opt a fellow party member to their council seat. The problem lies with Maurice or Brian getting in which leaves 6 months to a by-election but being so close to a general election Limerick Could be down a T.D. for nearly a year!
With council there wouldn't be a list. The party decides on a cooptee. I don't know about DEM. It might be a list similar to MEPs.
Daniel Butler is FG isn't he? Is the FG candidate not Helen O'Donnell?
The point I'm making is it's a co-option, not a by-election. I'd also suspect that someone who was elected to a council seat and also mayor would choose the role of mayor
We'd be without a TD but with a DEM so on balance might not be too bad. Any TD we get in a potentially resulting by election will only be there for a matter of months anyway
Yeah there was article on it the other day regarding Catherine Funchion who is the Sinn Fein TD for Carlow? She's running for MEP in Ireland south and they said that it's so close to a general election that thethey can waive the 6 month rule. Still not ideal though as any close votes in the Dail could be down a Limerick voice.
Helen O'Donnell is an independent but she has a FG background
Being down a TD (esp a party TD) for a few months isn't really an issue, they all vote with their party. SF is an opposition party so they vote no to most things and the Government usually has a majority anyway.
