i'm equally skeptical.
ironically a lot of that institutional knowledge is now residing in kyiv.
If NATO/EU supports Ukraine, in Ukraine itself, only to provide Ukrainian security (air, sea and land) and to push Russians out to the internationally recognised borders, there is no need, nor a viable pretext for any nuclear escalation. Remember that Putin threatened with a nuclear response if anyone helps Ukraine in any way back in 2022, and his threats proved hollow. Which is somewhat logical, Russia itself is not threatened even by Western tanks in Ukraine since nobody expects those to be used in a successful drive on Moscow.
Putin is only likely to use nuclear weapons if he is personally threatened, and even if and when Ukraine, with or without NATO's help, reestablishes its borders, it does not directly threaten Putin.
And who will run Russia while their brigades are getting slaughtered in Ukraine? They are already short of people to run the country.
Interesting article from generally reliable source on where things are right now
I would agree with this. Yes, Putin cannot win the war against NATO. But what Putin can do is to attack some NATO country, fail to achieve any victory, and dig in in the captured territory, creating a new front, just like in Donbass/Lugansk in 2014. For example, what if Russia captures a third of Estonia. Will NATO tries to negotiate, or will it send its own soldiers to clear Russians from the trenches?
Victor, Russia couldn't capture one third of a kilometer inside Estonia or any NATO country. Any sign of a build up on NATO's borders will be detected. NATO will have total air superiority.
NATO will have total air superiority
That's an interesting and valid point worth reinforcing: perhaps we've collectively become so used to this war being prosecuted by the Ukrainians without an ounce of air support, we forget it's still an integral part of warfare. Indeed perhaps even Russia would make that mistake too 'cos indeed, NATO's air power would prove a massive problem to Russia's ability to push forward - and the larger ring of air defences making it doubly hard to strike deep in NATO territory either.
Indeed, that's the situation now.
However, in the hypothetical future, with e.g. Trump in the White House, Europe potentially more fractured, "tired" of the endless Ukraine war, problems with NATO - anything could happen. Putin would be the first to exploit any opportunities.
NATO is great on paper, but in practice Europe, as we can see, is very soft and unprepared, and thats directly after an invasion of Europe by Putin, imagine in a few years time how apathetic we could potentially be. As much as I detest Trump, maybe he's the shock/jolt Europe needs to wake up and smell the coffee, that we need to be on a war footing, because that's Putin's approach to us, he's not just at war with Ukraine.
This is pure insanity. Putin isn't going to attack any NATO country and "dig in". Any Russian troops crossing any NATO border would be killed within hours. There is zero evidence that the Russian army has the equipment or capability to even reach Kiev for goodness sake.
It's a bit unrealistic to think that Russia, which couldn't take Kyiv, is going to capture some of the territory of a NATO member.
There is a ferverent ideological commitment to minimal self defense capabilities for most of Europe, things like self interest and belief in any long term security are frowned upon.
Trump can and has jolted Europeans before in to increasing defense capabilities against Russia but it was fought all the way by them.
The message that European States should pay their own way, not America is a popular message not just among Maga voters but Democrats as well.
They'll be a good game talked by most of Europe but it is only going to be the Eastern Europeans who remember the brutal reality of Soviet Socialism that are preparing for a fight.
Of course, it is disturbing to think that Russia, with its disregard for human life and with its extensive experience in the modern conflict tactics, may jam GPS and most radio comms, and attempt to send waves of storm troopers across Estonian border.
couldn't take Kyiv
I would put the capabilities of the Ukrainian army in 2022 way, way above of the undoubtedly brave, yet tiny, Estonian army. And there is no magic teleport capability that could transfer a sizable army and enough equipment into Estonia within weeks. Unless the overwhelming air power can be brought upon the invaders, larger numbers will eventually win.
It’s incredible that the high level of superiority the UKr has of its airspace and over the Black Sea -and for a country which has no Mara time fleet and the Russians have shot down all of its planes!!!!! I’m sure that NATOhas taken note of that ????????
And are you assuming that there will not be a coup or populist reaction/uprising , etc, etc, etc in Russia during all of this projected turmoil in Europe?
But the same holds for Russia. They were building up for over a year on Ukraine's border.
Also, what do you have in mind by 'sizeable' ? The NRF can deploy 6,000 troops and supporting equipment, APCs within a month.
The Russians have improved their tactics significantly.
True, Russian build up will be noticeable. Even more than that, Russia needs to mobilize a significant number of personnel, and that requires time.
Putin has just "won" the election and now he can start to mobilize cheap non-contract soldiers. The possible invasion of Baltic states won't happen today, or tomorrow. The good time for that is shortly after the Trump's inauguration as a president. Russia has already started creating the organisational structures for the war in the West:
The NRF can deploy 6,000 troops and supporting equipment, APCs within a month.
Is that a joke? The current size of the Ukrainian army (just the military staff) is 900,000. Russian active military personnel is 1,320,000.
Just to clear any misunderstanding. I am not saying that NATO/EU is weak and we just have to give up and give Putin whatever he wants. Just the opposite -- we must give Ukraine whatever it needs and more, and do it as soon as possible. Because if Ukraine is in a stalemate or losing, then Putin will escalate somewhere else. The funny thing about the escalation is that Putin does not need to win. He may just attack Estonia, his forces would be beaten back to the border, and then what happens? NATO stops at the border, right? And then Putin says -- I am open for negotiations on the Ukrainian question, or do you want me to attack Latvia next?
So much for the 'sun is too high in the sky' claims on here that this was old footage from the start of the war. Terrible shame, but at least one managed to take off and avoid the artillery.
If russia attacks a nato country every power station, refinery and communication installation would be obliterated in days. Their cities would be in the dark and cold and chaos would ensue.
Their pathetic excuse for an invasion force would resemble the Iraqis in desert storm all over again. A big mop up job.
They could try to gain territory on a non NATO member..as a test and to show strength at home?
I do worry for Ukraine, its just not having the ammunition its the lack of people that Ukraine can recruit for their army. The amount of their more experienced personnel that they have lost so far since USA aid has more or less dried up. I know they got 200 million over last few days but that's a drop in the ocean. That 60 billion would of saved so many Ukrainian lives that have otherwise died on the battlefield. Each hr and each day that Russia gets without Ukraine receiving this aid depletes Ukraine and gives Russia an advantage.
There are 10,000 US troops in Poland right now I believe.
Russian kids are smart.
I do worry for Ukraine
No you don't.
Until January 2025 anyway ( after that, if Trump gets in, bets off .. bring em back home to man the southern US borders )
Please tell us the lotto numbers for Friday pls seeing as you seem to know it all.
Point of Order - I thought it looked a little small for the Moscow flame - it's actually from the nearby town of Mozhaysk in the Moscow Region...There's a permanent military guard of honour on the Moscow monument.
Oil war continues 45% affected now if true..
Big bombs ...
The only answer is modern fighter planes for Ukraine..
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