Old thread seems to be permanently locked. It will be interesting if anything can come of this at last.
Threadbanned Posters:
You are assuming perfect knowledge of the 'facts' by parties with limited information.
The Guards were putting it about though that Bailey went there for sex. That was the narrative going around.
Whether the crime actually was or wasnt is secondary to the public perception when it comes to reactions. Facts are important but stories have a life of their own.
Ya one of possible reasons
Lots of drunken lads call to girls places at nite
Sex is not always the motive at all
I'd say we have all done it at some point...Poetry that is..but in my case I wasn't very good.
Ya lads call round drunk
Loneliness, someone to talk to , woman is a mother figure etc.
Rape and sex isn't always the reason
Well, the guards thought so.
In my view sex is the only plausible motive for Bailey.
He wasn't in dispute with her. So revenge is not plausible.
He wasn't growing/dealing drugs...so that's another suggested motive off the table.
He didn't gain financially, so that's out too.
To suggest he got out of bed and walked through the night to a stranger's house to read her his poetry, and to beat her to death with a rock because she didn't like it, is piling improbability on top of more improbability.
In fact its absurd.
So, while it is correct to say we don't know for sure, most rational people would class the poetry motive along with the horse attack.
Some people rule out the possibility that the murderer could have driven to and from the murder scene.
I doubted this myself as Sophies neighbours might have heard a car. But their house is a good bit away from the gate where she was killed, and even when Shirley was shouting and blowing the horn the next day, Alfie could hear nothing.
Its a possibility.
If you're going to be arguing in that style I'm not getting into it
IE ; beat her to death because she didn't like his poetry
Isn't that what you suggested?
Its not true to say Bailey didn't benefit financially from her death.
He went from an impoverished nobody to one of the leading journalists investigating and writing about the story.
After he became a suspect he spent years trying to sue the newspapers and state with mixed results.
He also was likely paid by the various documentary makers in recent years.
For good or bad it transformed his life.
Ya he was one of the many who benefited from the story that kept giving
That's in no way a motive . He couldn't have foreseen or planned anything like that
Your own post us contradicting your point... mixed results. Are we supposed to believe at 6pm the day before the murder Bailey might have imagined some future monetary reward from a civil case???
So it is absurd to suggest it as a motive. It can be immediately discounted.
Did it lead to a secure well remunerated career in journalism? Nope.
Did it even lead to more income than whatever he was getting as a freelancer? Doubtful.
He could have foreseen the first one though. Its a possible motive, although a long shot.
It was probably still better than IB’s though.
One would be amazed how emotional people can get about their poetry, it’s plausible that she told him the truth, that his poetry was crap and to **** off and leave her alone at which point he lost it.
Had he not become a suspect, it would potentially have led to a viable career in journalism.
Facts are thin on the ground on this thread there are so many unknowns about virtually every aspect of the case except the fact that she was brutally murdered
At the same time we shouldn't be introducing the "possible but highly implausible" into the thread
It is implausibility heaped upon implausibility. It would certainly be a novel motive that if it did turn out to be Bailey he would go down in the annals of crime - but we don't see any evidence of him claiming credit in a posthumous confession.
There's zero suggestion of any pre-planning on the part of Bailey in any scenario outlined, or in any of the flimsy evidence the Guards found, to suggest such a considered motive. Even if this scheme crossed your mind, is this how you would go about the murder, very dubious. And would you turn up at the scene the next day with scratches - very dubious.
Haven't you rejected other theories \ suspects about the murder for less?
You have absolutely no idea what preplanning was engaged in by Bailey, if he was the murderer.
Considered move? You mean resurrecting his career? Admitted as much to someone.
Did anyone at the scene notice the scratches? Given he wasn't a suspect yet, doubtful.
Well we have an idea in that the Garda investigation, by fair means and foul, were all over Bailey and found exactly zero evidence of it. Which is why I wrote: "There's zero suggestion of any pre-planning on the part of Bailey." So to say we have absolutely no idea is false. We may not have the full picture but we have some idea for sure.
I don't know what you mean by "admitted as much to someone". Nowhere is any such motive for murder admitted. He might have expressed that the story could be a big break for him, but an innocent journalist might say that also. It means nothing in itself.
How would you know the scratches would or wouldn't be noticed? You couldn't. There's zero suggestion Bailey was hiding them, either at the scene or in public over the coming days.
Part of the reason to want to succeed in journalism, is not just for the monetary aspects, but also for your words to get out there. I think if somebody had such a motive then they would claim credit for the murder when they are dead and beyond the law, so that their words and the scheme they planned etc would have a notoriety and people would hear about it as such a famous murder case. It would be news all over the world.
And I return to the point: Haven't you rejected other theories \ suspects about the murder for similar "doubtful" aspects?
The photos he offered to others is something that hasn't gained too much attention.
If it was just one persons word against his, fair enough.
But 3 people against his word is a different matter.
No doubt someone will allege they were part of a garda conspiracy also.
He said it as a joke to Helen Callanan.
Well for what it's worth...
'Ian Bailey told a newspaper editor he killed Sophie Toscan Du Plantier to resurrect his career, the High Court was told today.
Helen Callanan, former news editor at the Sunday Tribune, said she was flabbergasted when Mr Bailey told her "It was me, I did it, I killed her. I did it to resurrect my career"
Ms Callanan said the comment was made during a serious conversation she had with him to challenge him when she discovered the journalist she had working on the story was in fact the suspect.
The confessions were all a big joke apparently
Bit of an odd joke to make.
I'd forgotten this
Photos seemed to be taken at night
Photos seemed to be taken standing over body
He was asked to turn up at the scene as a reporter, he couldn't refuse to turn up, as his job depended on it. Scratches or no scratches. And I dont think there's been any reports of someone noticing scratches on him that day, unless I'm mistaken. Its probably the last thing people were thinking about, why a reporter at the scene might have scratches. They'd hardly be thinking there was a link at that stage.
its called sarcasm.
Helen Callanan?
whose uncle Senator Peter Callanan helped Marie Farrell get a very favourable deal on a council building site, that Helen Callanan?
On the subject of the photographs:
Mr Lowney told the Irish Mail on Sunday that although a man did come to him with suspicious photos, he never identified him to gardai as Bailey. He said: "I didn't actually say it was him."
https://www.thefreelibrary.com/Sophie+witness+No2+'out'.-a0163320389
Mr Lowney died in 2016 so was not cross examined / statement verified at the French trial.
What is also curious about the incident is what lead Lowney to mention this to Guards 5 months later?
And he never asked the man for a name at the time, a total stranger, no indication he recognised him at the time or any previous familiarity - Bailey would have been all over the news by now.
And this - item of clothing:
the man’s demeanour changed when he began to examine the shots, which showed an item of clothing spread or caught on the gate.
Even more reason to doubt it was planned... you drop such a hint there but not claim credit for such a scheme after death. Doesnt add up for me.
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