"perception" is just "a lot of people are saying" in a suit
That's all well and good, but the metric the poll didn't ask (AFAIK?) would you still vote for him though? - 'cos Democrats might despair at Biden's age but I'd be slow to believe it'd stretch to the point where they'd let Trump win, or simply stay at home. Again it comes down the idea that if Biden should be replaced with someone younger - so should Trump 'cos a milquetoast GOP would romp home.
would you still vote for him though?
Mind you, just on that polling:
This ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted using the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel® February 9-10, 2024, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 528 U.S. adults. Results have a margin of sampling error of 4.5 points
Only 528? That seems like a surprisingly small sampling for a country of 330 milion; while it's also a fairly big margin of error too - 4.5%? Irish polls I've seen tend to wobble around the 2% IIRC? Not trying to discredit the poll 'cos I don't like the results, but those numbers seem a bit sketchy is all.
"Kamela Harris knows the nomination will go to Michelle Obama in the senario"
I have not heard one serious news outlet or podcaster say any such thing.
Sure - but there is a consistently strong metric that tells us all about the re-election prospects for US Presidents and that is their approval rating (there's a reason the White House watches this like a hawk). Biden's numbers have been and continue to be, terrible.
Put those two things together - the very strong public perception that he is past it, and these awful approval ratings, and you have a perfect storm. Any GOP candidate not called Trump would be coasting to victory by now. And even Trump now has a very strong chance.
Michelle Obama is not a factor. In no conceivable scenario is she even running for office.
More likely than your bets, to be fair.
I had to google milquetoast. Where did ya get that??
Thats where polls fall down. If asked "Do you think Biden is too old", I would say yes. But so is Trump. All this talk of him being too old helps no-one. If Trump was just as crazy as he is now but 20 years younger, the Dems could be worried about Democratic voters thinking Biden is too old and going with the younger trump, but when both candidates are around the same age, I really don't see too many Dems crossing the aisle over it.
A TV segment mentioned that word in the context of 45's approval ratings iirc.
He then posted a comment, infamously misspelling the word.
It's the only "issue" they can pin on Biden really so that's all they go after, it's why they spent so long on hunter and have the impeachment without evidence going through, they're desperate to find anything else.
It's also why they talk about trump in bombastic terms to create a false energy around him.
I had to laugh at a US based colleague who said to me recently, "Yes Trump is obnoxious, but Biden is a crook".
I had a real "wait, wut?!?" moment.
The margin of error is based on the sample size. Bigger sample, smaller MoE.
Those are in the realm of 'having a bit of craic'! I don't really expect my 125/1 shot to come in. 😀
The problem isn't Dems deciding Biden is too old and voting for Trump instead.
The problem is Dems lacking enthusiasm and failing to vote at all.
Dems will be voting if Trump in on the ticket.
Dems are performing very well against republicans as it stands.
The issue is the independents/swing states.
So their question will be to pick one elderly kind man or a rapist, racist, fraudster dictator wannabe.
If those independents can't make that ****ing choice, then I don't know what else can be done.
And if they do fail to vote, then they're idiots who apparently have no attention span - which I don't buy because as it was in 2020 when the rumbling liberal narrative was "eww, Biden!", the fear of Trump did the legwork Biden himself failed to achieve.
As it should be in 2024; nothing has changed here and if anything Trump's rhetoric has become bolder and more antagonistic. (Liberal) America is being asked to hold its nose again and if they truly cherish their institutions will look the other way rather than stay at home.
And given that poll you posted is thin statistical gruel, it doesn't quite shore up the idea Biden's underwater here.
Just a word I picked up over the years, couldn't say when cos it has just always been in my head.
It didn't matter that Biden generated very little enthusiasm last time, people still came out in high enough numbers to beat Trump. I'd like to think that'll happen again. The "anyone but Trump" voters might not bother so much if he stepped back and let Haley have a go, but we all know he'd never accept that.
As this is the Donald Trump thread the official spelling here is Milktoast. Trump can't even insult properly...
The origins of it go back ...
The original “milquetoast” was a comic book character created by H.T. Webster for The New York World in 1924. Caspar Milquetoast appeared in the strip The Timid Soul
https://www.cjr.org/language_corner/milquetoast.php
And yet, once again, every time there is an actual election somewhere the GOP is getting crushed recently. Why are these unenthusiastic Dems winning so much?
Biden hasn't even started campaigning yet, when he does that enthusiasm is going to get a large bump. Why? Three words:
Roe. Versus. Wade.
Because reporting points out he went to painstaking lengths to disclose on the shoe store front this is ‘just business’ and not tied to political campaigning. Basically trying to access a loophole to accept loads of foreign money.
Trump is the best defence against any potential Democrat voter ennui .
As long as Trump is on the ballot No Democrat or Democrat leaning voter is going to say "Bidens too old , I can't be arsed voting"
100%
Assume they are being built in some Chinese/Indian sweat-shop like most shoes these days
How much are they likely to cost to produce per unit ?
$20? , $10?
'Last time' is in the wing mirror of history.
I know people don't seem to like polling (or at least polling that challenges their preconceptions) on this thread but it's very interesting to see how Biden's popularity has declined over the course of his presidency. People are no longer voting on the same basis as they did in 2020 (and yes, I fully accept that Trump might be worse\nuttier than he was then!).
Even if that poll wasn't 2 years old, I'd still ask why you keep ignoring the fact that Dems win all the actual elections that take place?
They are not being 'crushed', by any objective measure.
The GOP ran some truly terrible candidates (thanks to Trump) in 2022 yet still took control of the House and are 50-50 in the Senate. That's not 'crushing'.
Probably the latter. It's almost darkly comedic, how much the cost vs price tag. Sneaker heads are one of the groups that make watch collectors look completely sane in comparison.
See my response to your earlier post - they don't win 'ALL the actual elections'. If they did, they would have a huge majority in both the House and the Senate.
And apologies, that poll is indeed out of date. See here instead which is bang up to date (and even worse for Biden).
So similar to a February 2020 favorability poll?
he still won 306-232.
Tabulate it for us: how many did they win vs lose?
Roe Roe Roe your vote, gently down the stream…
And even in those they won they massively under-performed.
In 2022 Biden was unpopular , in the middle of an appalling phase of inflation and the GOP still couldn't take the Senate and barely scraped the House when they should have taken both at a canter.
Now , Biden is still unpopular but Inflation is dropping , the Economy is booming and you still have Roe Vs Wade.
And that's before you get to the fact that Trump will be in the ballot this time - in all the recent elections the GOP have underwhelmed because of the mere idea of Trump.
In November , he'll actually be there and will drag down the ballot across the board for them.
But only after he has spent all their money on his own campaign and legal bills leaving the rest of the GOP struggling to compete financially with a Democrat party machine that is out-raising them 2:1 at the moment.
