The two sets of data that concern me are:
Obviously the two are closely correlated. Remove Biden from the equation and I think 《insert name of generic centrist Democrat with good hair and ideally military service》beats Trump in a landslide.
It's not like I'm stating anything shocking or new here...
Voter Doubts, there is no polling that show trump has courted the independent voters, in face the '22 mid terms showed that he's go no sway over them whatsoever. So whatever plausible concerns about biden's deficits you may vocalise are completely eclipsed by the pussy-grabbing, broke, insurrection formenting actions of tfg
Well you may indeed misunderstand the situation...
Obviously the two are closely correlated.
No they aren't. Both candidates are virtually as old as the other.
"One thing we know for certain is this: we have 2 candidates who are chronologically outside the norm of anyone who has run for the presidency in this country, in the history of this country. They are the oldest people EVER to run for president - breaking by only four years, the record that THEY SET! The last time they ran."
Biden's approval rating is tied to media sensationalism (TLDR, Biden doing the job he was hired to do, is boring, and the media hates that about him, despite by any objective measure having one of the most successful terms in US presidential history) and the situation with Hamas. In fact I know people who don't approve of the job Biden is doing because they think for example, he should have appointed a more aggressive attorney general to prosecute Trump. This doesn't translate to votes for Trump lol.
There isn't another fabled "generic centrist Democrat with good hair and ideally military service." There also is no precedent where a party primaried their own Presidential incumbent.
Voters knew who (and what) Trump was in 2020 and 2016 too. That's the problem.
Why would you give him a chance by fielding a diminished candidate against him?
But the fact you can't think of a single Democrat proves Biden's worth and is it's own story. It's glib to talk about an archetype but so was John Kerry and he didn't win. Hillary was a generic Democrat albeit one without military service, and we know what happened there.
Name a democrat who'd win tomorrow and I'll defer your point but as it stands, Biden will be the preferred best-worst choice for a lot of people - even if they hate the guy's job so far.
And he lost in 2020, nor did he win the popular vote in '16. Who's diminished? the broke rapist certainly doesn't have a good track record at winning
No most voters really did not pay attention to who Trump was in 2016. They knew better in 2020 - and he lost. Hello.
There is nothing diminished about the guy who beat him.
'I'd rather be pretty I can fake being smart'
The way to hope to begin to prove your client isn't a mobster is to go to an appeals court not vow personal revenge on the prosecutor
I agree with RDIII on how complacent / deluded much of this thread appears to be. Biden is a uniquely vulnerable candidate and it seems hugely unlikely for him to survive multiple debates without a major disqualifying gaffe.
Yes, the economy is doing well but perceptions of the economy are unfavourable and his Gaza policy is significantly chipping away at the unison and enthusiasm of his base.
I think any healthy / competent Dem candidate could leverage Trump’s fundamental unpopularity; but polling data is robustly signalling that Biden is unelectable.
Sure most of us wish it was the other way, but it is this way.
And were a single electable, competent opponent facing Biden it'd be a GOP white house, but it's not. It's Donald Trump, a singularly divisive individual whose record is disastrous and the stats show him to be unappealing to independent voters.
Biden's a terrible candidate, saved by the fact his opponent's worse and whose rhetoric isn't turning independent heads. Quite the opposite.
Frankly if Gaza is blinding Democrats that much that'd they'd let Trump in - a man who'd make a bad situation worse (and already did with the Jerusalem controversy) - then they're even bigger idiots. They can grumble but watch them hold their nose in November.
Nothing new about the myth that a different candidate to Biden would destroy Trump, but the reality is that it doesn't matter who the democrat candidate is, MAGA will always call them the worst person ever.
Harris is as boring as you can find but if she was running she would be hated. Clinton and Obama were hated for being democrats. Newsome is already being labelled as a terrible candidate and he is only hinting at a run in the future.
Biden is called a terrible candidate because he is the democrat candidate, when it comes to MAGA it is literally as simple as that.
Whitmer
The other thing to bear in mind is that 'the average American voter', thanks to the vagaries of the Electoral College, is pretty much...irrelevant. And that makes the calculus all that much more scary - a handful of voters in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin hold this election in their hands.
They broke for Trump in '16, for Biden in '20. Having blind faith that they break again for an aged, unpopular candidate in '24 is optimistic at best.
This isn’t about listening to MAGA criticisms of the Dem candidate. Biden’s team is validating the criticisms by already skipping events that put Biden front and centre.
Biden should step aside and a new candidate be chosen at the Convention. It is simply too important:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/16/opinion/ezra-klein-biden-audio-essay.html
100%
The last 50 posts or so are you making salient points based in fact and people trying to hopecast them away. It doesn’t work like that.
what were his gaffes the last time out?
You forget he already won a debate against Trump, and Trump withdrew from debating him a 2nd or 3rd time. "Proud boys, stand back and stand by"
He also has shied away from debating anybody else this cycle
You seem to be deluding only yourself, the data shows otherwise:
I think it's quite naive to say that Biden isn't a problem for the Democrats at this stage. Personally I think he's done a good job as President over the past 4 years (aside from how he's handled Israel over the past few months) but the perception is out there now that he's a very old man (which he is) that has lost a few steps (which he probably has). It's fair to be concerned about what he'll be like in another 4 years as well, and Harris does not seem to have been a popular VP at all.
It's no surprise to me at all that Nikki Haley is staying in the GOP primary race for as long as she can. There's a fair chance Trump will have at least one criminal conviction under his belt by the time the election rolls around (which going by recent polling would be a problem for him) and if something should happen before he's declared as the nominee, Haley would most likely beat Biden in a match-up.
Either way, aside from the first paragraph I typed, I think that Biden probably beats Trump in November when it comes down to it. I think enough swing voters and GOP voters with a brain will realise what a danger the guy is and either not vote, or hold their noses and vote for Biden, hoping he lasts another 4 years.
Yes we know you're a gambler and placed money bets on off the wall dark horse candidates like Whitmer and Newsom - neither of whom are even running.
Coming in here and wishcasting it to the void won't win you back your money
sorry
https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121760580/#Comment_121760580
She literally sang on air "No I won't back down ... I'll stand my ground"
Doesn't stand ground, backs down.
Isn't it funny that two days after The destruction of trump's finances, and we've a skew of the previously silrnt both sides team here saying that Biden should step aside, funny that
That's the thing, there are even more GOP voters campaigning against a Trump presidency this time around than either 2016 or 2020. Many high ranking Republicans flatly have said they won't vote for him, others have even indicated they will vote Biden hen it comes down to it, arguing that disagreement with Biden's policies is not a pill too big to swallow vs. a guy who has made overt indications he plans to upend democracy entirely, get us out of NATO, hand the keys to Russia, etc.
RDIII and I are most definitely not ‘both sides’ people. My posting record speaks for itself. The data is telling us over and over that these legal issues do not diminish Trump’s standing amongst Republican voters (which is remarkably depressing imo) and that Biden is hugely vulnerable, even against Trump (which is unfortunate imo). Wanting to wave those realities away is hopecasting.
You're being delusional. I don't even know who you are.
These are actual election results. Biden is winning them in a literal landslide, sometimes as a write-in candidate.
Nobody outside of political punditry gives a flying toss about a superbowl interview.
If gaffes are your biggest election swinger I present
I get it, the Trumpers grade Trump on a curve. Biden in their view has to be utterly flawless or he's DQd, but his opponent can be a rambling incoherent mess? Trumpers don't get to lecture anyone else on delusion.
Shamelessly stolen from Reddit.
The best AirForce One's joke ever 😁
Says which polls? Cos all I've heard with these segues when they come up have boiled down to "people I like the cut of their jib" rather than anyone with national exposure or popularity. Also helps if Whitmer herself said anything on the topic.
Whatever else can be said, whoever wins in November we'll see precisely which Democrats are coming down the tracks in 2028. And I daresay there'll be some names not predicted - and I'd be shocked if Newsom goes near the idea TBH.
I agree, but I would be concerned about Biden and his ability to convince people that he's up for another 4 years. He has certainly aged since 2019 and as has been pointed out by others, optics are huge when it comes to an election campaign.
I would say that if the Dems could sub him out for another strong and much younger candidate to run on his achievements and manifesto for the next 4 years, they would. The problem is, who could possibly step in? There seems a serious lack of serious up-and-coming politicians in both parties, which is why we're now left with a rematch of 2020, which nobody wants.
He's vulnerable is he?
C'mere:
Look at the crowd response to his challenger, Dean Phillips with your lying eyes. You can watch the whole 12 minutes or jump to around the 7 min mark just for a fast taste.
Yeah Biden is soooo vulnerable.
Phillips got 1.7% of the south carolina vote.
No Democrat can say anything other than 'I would only be interested in running if there was a vacancy, which there isn't as President Biden will be our nominee yada yada'. Which is exactly what they are saying.
While at the same time praying privately for Biden to slip on the stairs or start drooling in a presser.
They've both aged 4 years since 2024.
What else?
Trump has picked up 91 felony charges and can't tell the difference between Nikki Haley, Nancy Pelosi, Joe Biden or Barack Obama. When he was boasting about a cognitive test at a rally again recently, he said he had to remember 6 things for the test.... then he listed 5 things:
The 'Biden is vulnerable' hopium smokers will have to do better than this.
Well then address it on the biden thread
