I suspect that there won't be any great changes in the coming months. Russia will consolidate what it has and keep doing terror attacks on other Ukrainian cities, Ukraine will fight heroically to not lose anymore and score the occasional big hit on a ship or similar.
If US weapons dry up and Trump gets into power things could get worse.
That's my modest prediction. Chances of Ukraine driving Russia out this year as long as Putin is in power? Zero
North Korea has and will endure because it put the legwork into intentionally becoming a feudal, utterly insular state. I don't think there's a single comparable nation on earth when it comes to the Pyongyang dynasty. While the difference with your other examples is neither state put an inordinate amount of its resources into a war it cannot win, yet has already lost hundreds of thousands of lives, and as many have fled the country - in a country that was already suffering crazy demographic problems before the war started. That centre can't hold forever.
It's easy to forget but Russia was once a grubby country everyone looked the other way for, because it was the source of our gas, finances, World Cups and sundry other little tendrils that had ensured we pretended Putin was a normal world leader. They were as bad at whitewashing as the Saudis continue to be. Then he miscalculated that apathy and ordered his tanks towards Kyiv.
I'll say one thing you're way off about: ain't no chance Russia's gonna replace Putin with someone better - in fact I maintain a degree of worry it's gonna be someone worse. Dissent and legitimate political rivals are effectively dead and gone now, so what's left? It's entirely possible a smarting Russia ethno-nationalist will take over and push the country into a further antagonistic stance.
I don't think the three day war was a delusion at the time .... if Kiev had fallen, which was a real possibility in the initial assault it could have been over pretty quick.
Where would be next big attack for Russia be if adviika falls?
One of the most on-point observations in this thread in recent days. Beautifully put.
Makes me fcuking angry. It's Western nations and particularly US Republicans had stopped acting the cnut, this could have been prevented.
I dont think many military people would agree, salients are areas you breakout from, the idea of fighting in one for several months is fighting at a disadvantage, now more so in an age when the battlefield is under constant surveillance, the best course now is to round out their lines and fight defensively. I believe the Ukrainians are coming around to this type of thinking.
Sky News reports Navalny's death.
Allegedly he felt unwell after a walk and then died.
Russia really is a hopelessly corrupt and desolate place now.
He signed his own death warrant by voluntarily going back to Russia.
The poor man, knew what was going to be the end outcome. Putin is some piece of work.
Just in time for the election. Maybe we should run a wee bet on the final tally for Putin. 98% perhaps? Just for the patina of democracy n all.
I
"not everyone loves allies and Churchill, Roosevelt/Truman" - said WW2 Nazi Germany loving equivalent only to change their coat the very next minute war ended and spent the rest of their lives denying any support and cheerleading. :D
Wasn't Navalny supportive of the annexation of Crimea??
I'd say 70-80%. The turnout % is worth watching too - although both are easily open to manipulation at the vote tabulation stage by the stooges in the various electoral bodies.
strange that none of the ruSSian speaking channels (antigovernmental) have confirmed this yet. Navalniy's own team have not announced it yet. Only SKY.
His legal team are on their way to investigate.
Gorbachev supported the war in Afghanistan. Sometimes, in politics, you have to do a deal with evil to have influence for good.
He appeared to shift his position on Crimea last year indicating that the 1991 borders should be recognised.
However, his views are irrelevant here. The main issue is the ruthless suppression of all meaningful opposition in Russia and violent subjugation of all dissenters, regardless of their views.
Navalny wasn't some flower child advocating a total cultural and political overhaul of the Russian state. AFAIK, many of his views would have aligned with Putin's or been close to them. It's just he was also critical of Putin in a few ways. That criticism plus his influence made him a marked man.
A lot of us simply don't support Russia invading another state and committing genocide.
Strange statement,
Fair enough if you have issues with Zelenski,a person, but why would you have issues with a country?
Is it the people of the country or the actual country itself you have issues with?
Or is just the fact that it exists that causes you ire?
Tank battle
May they rest in peace
Yep an absolute scum bag
RIP.
This I reckon is it .. one could say in part Navalnys demise potentially sped up by Trumps recent Nato utterances and the like?
Ive read that his legal team was "charged and arrested" in absentia, but can't find those tweets now. Prob fake news
Just watched the Tucker Carlson Interview with Putin.
very interesting stuff.
Nato & the US should piss off.
Just to expand on this because I think this description of him is a little broad and could equally apply to someone like the recently convicted ultra-nationalist and war criminal Igor "Strelkov" Girkin, who although a critic of Putin, is a truly terrible human being.
What set Navalny apart is he actively called out the corruption and kleptocracy at the heart of the Putin Regime. This was going right for the underbelly of the Putin regime. Everyone in Russia knows about the corruption but the genius of the regime's propaganda is that they are able to put the responsibility for that onto local officials whilst implying that Putin and other top officials in the Kremlin are clean. Navalny showed this up to be entirely bogus by showing evidence of how everyone in the regime, up to and including Putin were dirty. He coined the phrases "The party of crooks & thieves" to describe Putin's United Russia party. This could not be allowed to stand and that's why he was targeted for assassination and bogus criminal offences.
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