Following on from
this thread
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Answer to Your question is a resounding NO.
Said it many times this bunch are totally reactive, they know nothing about being proactive
The Greens don't fit with Sinn Fein. The carbon tax is a huge issue for the Greens, Sinn Fein oppose it.
Sinn Fein don't know what they want to do with Carbon tax
I think the bigger issue is the attitude from Sinn Fein and supporters to Green supporters over the last few years.
It's pretty much nailed on that FF and FG Will be in power after the next election, probably with social democrats rather than the greens. Depressing
A lot of water to pass before then. I wouldn't be calling any election so far out
They'll fit more when Catherine Martin is leader after the next election. Eamon Ryan having zero interest in social issues isn't inline with what of the rest of the party.
Csnt see the SocDems going in with FG given they disagree on nearly every major issue.
Trust me, that won't happen. FG will not be in power after next election. 100% guaranteed.
There isn't a chance that the Greens will go into coalition with Sinn Fein unless Sinn Fein change huge parts of their policy on climate change. SF are effectively climate change deniers.
Are you joking?
FFG led govt is the most likley outcome.
Indeed..
I have expected that outcome for a year or so but it looks even more likley now.
Housing will take a while to catch up, bur almost 35k homes were built last year and it will be more again this year.
The numbers are moving in the right direction and a lot of commercial construction labour will pivot to residential over the coming years.
Are you sure about that? Never underestimate the lure of a ministerial merc...
So are FF. Didn't stop them. FG at least admit climate change, but actually don't give much of a toss about stopping it either.
Fairly sure. Although if they were given the right Depts they might consider it but I doubt FG would let that happen. Cant imagine they'll go into government with them so they can listen to the justice Minsiter call people from the North inner city scumbags and talking about "cracking down on aslyum seekers."
Never say never in politics but it's a long shot.
What if FF & FG are unable to put together a workable government without the involvement of the Soc Dems, or FF makes that call anyway and declares it's off to cut a deal with SF? Would that be a price worth paying for the Soc Dems so they could avoid supping with the FG devil?
We shall see. Not a hope. FG won't be able to buy a transfer. They are completely toxic.
Of course it would. A SF/FF government would deliver on more of SD goals than a FG one with SDs in it.
Sinn Fein oppose the government's current policies on climate change, which are largely Green driven.
So, unless you are telling me that SF are also making up policy on climate change, and don't really believe what they say, it is impossible to see how the Greens can join a coalition with SF.
Sinn Fein have a problem, a massive one, joining with any party. The online supporters group have spent years now insulting everyone online if they decide they are a supporter of any party. So in the case of FF the party will need to get the grass roots onboard if they wanted to join SF. Based on what I can see and have been saying it for years that will not happen.
The Greens have got more abuse than most from SF and their supporters. So again why would they bother?
FG have been clear they have no interest.
It is funny how the mood is changing, just this morning on social media which is usual full of how great SF is, you start to see people going against SF and saying they have lost the advantage. One person saying the last election was SF peak. Now these people are not "experts" or anything but it goes along with the shift we are seeing away from SF.
SF of course could change all this, if they come out and swing hard against immigration that might move the needle but I can't see it.
In terms of climate, SF haven't a clue what they want, the sitting on the fence has worked for a while but now they need to make decisions and that is when the incompetence of the party will come out.
Let them bang away but at this stage SF should shut down the media clowns they have used for years, then swing on immigration and hope people believe them if they want to get into government
I have said for quite a while that the electorate only begins to think about government a year before an election, and the mind is only really focussed in the last month or so before the election takes place. We are beginning to see the shifts now. Election polls were steady for a couple of years, but now they will shift like never before.
The problem for Sinn Fein is that people start to look at the opposition and ask themselves what ideas do they have to make things better. So far, Sinn Fein haven't put forward a single big idea. Before the last election, the Greens went big on ideas for climate change, and won well. It is hard to think of a single idea associated with Sinn Fein.
It's really very easy to see how they'll go in together. Even the FF party have disagreed with the Greens position on climate change and there in Government with the Greens.
They are polling as the 2nd party.
FFG combined are far larger than SF.
We shall see. Polls do not reflect our PR voting system. I see them getting around 20 seats.
...theres clearly gonna be significant loses for both ffg, but that dont mean theyll all eventually go to sf, gonna be an interesting ge....
Latest opinion poll:
Not much change, though how Labour have a % increase is a bit bewildering.
These are First Preference Vote opinion polls and Labour. and some of the other micro parties are just background noise at this stage and will gain and lose percentage points repeatedly while staying with in a small range of percentages. The poll also asked about switching votes and 37% of FF voters and 35% of FG voters said they could vote for other parties. There's also the problem of about a third of current FG TDs retiring and not running in the next GE. There's no guarantee that FG will hold these seats. The Immigration issue has already started to affect FF/FG/Greens/SF. The Independents at 18% now have more support than FF and could, based on the Margin of Error, have also overtaken FG.
Regards...jmcc
Welcome back JMCC, been a while since we read Your thoughtful insights.
The downward trend in the Sinn Fein vote continues.
On the basis of this and other polls, the current government plus social democrats looks like the favoured outcome.
The parties must really be getting worried about the upcoming elections...
Flagged in the Budget last year, it had been initially planned to extend child benefit up until a young person’s 19th birthday from September 2024.
However, Ms Humphreys will tell cabinet colleagues today that the Department of Social Protection is now in a position to implement the measure from May 1 – which will coincide with the local and European elections the following month.
Today’s expected announcement will give such households an extra four months – or a cash boost of €560 – that they had not bargained for.
.. won't surprise me if they announce a general election in the coming months too, but they'll probably wait till closer to May to see what way the wind is blowing.
Will the child benefit be backdated my sons benefit was stopped the day of his birthday , he will be doing his leaving cert in June and turns 18 in July?
