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Share Picks 2024

antimatterx

After a sensational run in 2023, how do you feel about 2024.

Honesrly I'm not sure what to buy. I don't see another run like last year and tbh I'm pretty bearish. I think the US will be in for a shock and will not achieve the soft landing.

My prediction for 2024

Unemployment to start to rise, DXY to rise, interest rates cut as a result of an impending recession and assets will decrease in value.

I think I'll DCA into funds if I get itchy feet, but two stocks that I'm considering are PayPal and Pfizer.

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Nody

Well for all the obvious reasons the presidential election (and to a lesser point senate) will be the big question mark for US markets. We've already seen the failure of getting a budget approved last year and this will only intensify going into this years election. I think major EU weapon manufacturers will be a safe bet, US once is dependent on Trump not winning; same with anything related to green technology / EVs etc. and I'd not touch anything related to China / China based manufacturing as a company with someone's else 10 foot pole. That's a market that is going down burning right now and is likely to go down the NK route of raising walls.

I strongly disagree on the unemployment side of things; without being to specific but there's plenty of more jobs than people willing to take them at the moment. To quote an HR recruiter I know for a major US Manufacturing company "There are 1.5 millions jobs with 1 million applicants"; but I think companies will have to start paying significantly more for the more basic labour which is what they are resisting; only need to look at the automotive deals struck with 20% increases to see that. The simple fact is American minimum wage has not moved for a very long while and it's got to the point it's not longer sustainable and the companies will have to raise them to actually get people. There's no longer a queue to apply but rather the other way around and I think this will cause problems for companies with the wrong management thinking it's an employers market out there (saw one CEO talking about how their employees should blur work and free time and work 60 to 80h weeks etc., yea, good luck with that).

Personally my plan this year is anything not AI related (bubble) but continue to buy luxury stocks (keep building that sub portfolio), investment companies (diversification) and non cyclical companies. Probably add a few more raw material companies as well because I feel a bit light in that area but nothing fancy but more iron ore, copper etc. that will always have a market. Beyond that keep building out positions in the companies I do own already; nothing wrong with adding on to existing stock and of course various index funds.

The Phantom Jipper

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058329251/share-picks-2024

I'm also keeping an eye on Pfizer, would be surprised if this didn't recover further. The pipeline of new products is seemingly quite strong and a number of interesting acquisitions have been made out of the Covid windfall money. The dividend is 5.5% currently aswell which is nice in the meantime. My expectation is for interest rates to fall somewhat so it would make sense for punters to rotate out of risk-free investments and back into stocks with a decent dividend yield which should help with nudging the price back up.

Stormington

Commodity producers and suppliers were mixed last year and I think they can run with inflation rearing its head again. I'm watching oil and agriculture movement and think it pumps early in the year. That should benefit commodity producing countries and companies located there. Recession this year? Maybe. Leaning toward yes and subsequent money printing.

O&G: Ecopetrol

O&G supplier: Transocean

Coal: BTU - this is lagging the other names and (torn between this and HCC but think the Peabody met/thermal mix ticking two boxes is safer despite lower quality coke)

Edit: Scam pump nominee: RIVN. I'll scale into this during the year. I've called it a scam so it will run harder than the others I've nominated.

daheff

my gut on interest rates and inflation is that they will stay higher than expected for a while longer than expected. Troubles in the Suez/Panama canals will dive ships to longer journeys meaning higher prices and slower deliveries.

But once interest rates start coming down (or are flagged to come down) we'll see property companies/REITS and growth stocks pop. At recent FED hints on pausing of rate hikes we saw a pop in these sectors.

But what do i know 🤣

antimatterx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569607#Comment_121569607

Generally rates are cut when the economy is slowing, so a cut could mean a recession.

dxhound2005

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569607#Comment_121569607

Higher than expected for a while longer than expected. Some people might expect a change in two months, others in two years. Some might expect even higher rates than at present.

robman60

Sold some tech last week including Salesforce and Meta.

Seems like a lot of Healthcare stocks in the US struggled last year so bought a bit of Pfizer and BMS.

I also bought some Kenmare Resources as it at least appears to be undervalued. Anyone holding here?

unknown

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antimatterx

Controversial perhaps but the lower BABA gets the more I want to take a punt

banie01

My 1st buys of the year are Boeing at 199.4, GOEV at 0.0182 and NIO at 6.20

I had a sub $200 buy order for Boeing since the most recent quality incident. I stand over my statements on the MAX thread. That Boeing has a serious issue with QA and has done since the turn of the century. That said? I believe sub -200 has considerable upside potential.

On GOEV, I think they are ripe for takeover at current price and their IP has value. They either start ramping up production or they get taken over and I see upside in the price there.

NIO if/when they start really pushing in to Europe? I see plenty of upside on their price too.

patsy_mccabe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121629123#Comment_121629123

I bought BABA yesterday at $70. That's at 6 times free cash flow. A market Cap of $176.25B and $29B in Free Cash Flow. Sitting on $83.3B in Cash and $22.7B in LT Debt.

patsy_mccabe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121633919#Comment_121633919

In Oct 2020, BABA was $219/share, revenue was $30/share, Free CASH Flow was $10/share.

The equivalent figures now (at $70/share) are revenue is $50/share, Free CASH Flow is $11.8/share. Yet at a share price of $70, nobody is interested.

patsy_mccabe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121636264#Comment_121636264

Well I got paid a dividend on BABA yesterday.

Warren Buffett once said that it's wise for investors “to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”

unknown

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Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121642605#Comment_121642605

I think you are to generous to China, between their population peak, failure of their own banks (the banks refuses to pay out money in bank accounts, limiting debit cards without notice etc.), the shadow borrowing companies crashing (this is where the wealthy could get returns making the economy work), ballooning elderly population (and no funds to pay pensions) etc. China is in a way worse place by comparison.

unknown

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daheff

I think people under estimate the China risk. Before the Ukraine war most people would have run a mile away rather than invest in Russia. China for all intents and purposes is not any different for controls and risk. The difference for China was that it WAS growing exponentially. But that has stopped now and people are seeing the issues that are there.

Government can crack down and take control of any asset at any point they wish. Investors have no comeback if they do. for me, I'd be wanting a huge premium for taking that risk.

patsy_mccabe

Well BABA just paid a 1.4% dividend, plus they bought back 4.4% of their stock in the last 12 months. Combined that's nearly 6% share holder yield.

Also Alibaba annual free cash flow for 2023 was $29.18B, a 29.57% increase from 2022.

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121657411#Comment_121657411

And the stock in the same 12 month period went down from $119.53 to $68.63; so yay the 43% loss became only a 37% loss in value for the same period. But that's not the point; the point is not only are Chinese companies inherently risky (see all the times CCP demanded golden shares, demanded "donations", had senior people disappear etc). The simple fact is they are operating in an environment where the state can literally decide to take over the company, go to war with Taiwan, not allow transfers of foreign currency outside of China etc. which would wipe out the share value without possibility to even sell at 90% loss (see what happened in Russia if you want a recent example). China is not an open economy with actual laws and a legal system to back it up but a dictatorship with no actual independent courts pretending to be open market economy with all the corresponding risks. Basically it's like investing in North Korea and hoping that they don't decide to go to war with South Korea and act rational; it's possible but it's a very very high risk investment for questionable returns.

patsy_mccabe

In Q3 of 2023;

Michael Burry - Scion bought 50,000 shares of BABA at $86.

Lee Ainslie bought 860,459 shares.

Chase Coleman bought 1,476,745 shares.

daheff

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569875#Comment_121569875

while i don't disagree with this statement, i have a feeling that rates will be quicker to come down than previously. Central banks are trying not to kill economy as well as fight inflation - especially in election year!

unknown

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patsy_mccabe

BABA up 7.5% as we speak.

The_Erection_of_Cass

Another fine day, I'm now down by 3 figure amount which is 2.2%.

BRK.B is King!

The_Erection_of_Cass

Another nice day for BRK.B

I'm now down 1.3%

On November 30th I was down 6.1% and I haven't invested anymore since late 2022.

And to think, at one stage when I was down 8 or 9k it crossed my mind to sell, lock in the losses and get over stocks.

FocusST

What's the general outlook for 2024? Since I invested in early to mid-December I am up about 12% - seems totally bonkers and unsustainable. Meta / Nvidia is where most of the 12% bump came from.

antimatterx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121668303#Comment_121668303

I don't know what to make of it anymore.

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121668303#Comment_121668303

Basically there are three areas that can tip things in all directions in my book for 2024:

US Election
China (not only Taiwan invasion but more generally what Winnie the Poo panics and his minions decide to do to save face as China's economy is going down the toilet on all fronts which can trigger multiple bad responses)
Open war escalations (Ukraine/Russia & potential middle east escalations)

I've not included the central banks in the list simply because they will react to the above anyway no matter all their talk about pushing down inflation etc. and honestly it's a roll a dice answer to how they will go.

For example if China invades Taiwan (unlikely because their military is as corrupt as Russia and are in no where near the state required to succeed) toss out anything with microchips in it. If China decide to close their borders again and go plan economy (already seen in their plans to basically go NK on people and have the state be the only one allowed to buy crops from farmers at a fixed price to feed it's own population in massive community kitchens) toss out anything with production in China or selling there (soy beans from USA for example).

US election if Biden gets in I can easily see a relief rally (no worries over stupid policies with normal international trade etc. vs trade wars) and more infrastructure projects could boost some companies. Trump would most likely have things go south quickly with escalating trade wars, policies going all over the place with no idea what will still be relevant 4 years later from a rule perspective etc. as Trump swings all over the place (roll back green policies that then may be rolled out again if Democrats get in etc.).

The wars speaks for itself; if Iran / Iraq / Saudies etc. gets involved in a war (they are already involved but not openly) that will destabilize the region for all the obvious reasons and cause trade issues (already seen) as well as draw in USA into it all further. Wars leads to uncertainty and the market hates that as well will disrupt transportation even longer, cause a harder stand on companies on which companies they are selling into etc. Same thing applies if Belarus (very unlikely) decides to get involved, more missiles flying into Nato countries etc. but flip that and if a peace deal is struck suddenly there's a gazillion dollars of relief and rebuild going into Ukraine giving high profit margin opportunities.

TLDR - Roll a dice because there are multiple potential triggers in either direction with no realistic way to predict likely outcomes.

The_Erection_of_Cass

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121668303#Comment_121668303

Too much money still being thrown out everywhere.

As long as the labour market is hot and people have money to spend, stocks will go up.

I do think inflation will stay higher for longer so that will impact the market as they're expecting rates cuts relatively soon.

For a recession to happen you need job losses, where people can't pay their debt and their spending is reduced, emigration happens and demand drops.

FocusST

I understand the Fed will be forced to cut rates this year as if they don't the interest rate payments on US national debt will become unsustainable. Looks like it is going to be a hot year for stonks!