Old thread seems to be permanently locked. It will be interesting if anything can come of this at last.
Threadbanned Posters:
it is unusual to go alone, to west cork on xmass week for no reason.
There obviously was a reason
she knew no one would say yes when she asked, great cover, her husband was never going to say yes
what you said was in the diary, oh god
i never said he didn't have a diary
what you said was in the diary was not in it
it is unusual to go to west cork mid winter from france
For what’s its worth, my own speculative view (which will likely annoy a few people in this thread who seem to only want to deal in known facts, of which there are very few):
I change my mind every few weeks on whether or not I think Bailey did it!
I think the actions the Gardai took to either deliberately, or negligently to the point of it basically being deliberate, lose, misplace, amend or destroy files and evidence is the main issue with this case. They wanted it to be Bailey so badly that they destroyed the entire investigation.
I’m well aware of the local rumour, which I have heard from a number of people in the area, that it may have been a local Garda. I find this one a little too far fetched but I do think the Gardai did all in the power to focus the investigation in one direction and to protect something or someone else.
Either that or they were such amateur morons that they wanted their names in the paper with a conviction regardless of actual guilt.
Yes pre -cold case review I believe he was "most likely" to have killed her
Not enough to prosecute as the eyewitness evidence was fake
Now what's going on now with the case file and whether the evidence has actually been strengthened is a mystery
It's quite unsavoury what's happening now but was to be expected as the gardai and media both have beef with him and there's a lot of interchange between them . They're working as a team on this unofficial prosecution after death that's happening right now
I actually grew up in rural Ireland. Some people are like that, some aren't. My family wasn't.
I agree in principle but is West Cork different?
It's full of Germans, English, French, Dutch etc...lots of Hippies, Blow ins, Stoners, Artists.
It's difficult to know.
I still think very few people knew her in Ireland. She didn't socialise much with Irish people there, just with people who worked on her house like the housekeeper and workmen.
Bailey being the journo Yad have to think he knew more than he let on
If you look on Google maps there's very few houses in that part of West Cork. So maybe everyone knew everyone.
I'm also not sure how much time Sophie spent there. Was it a week or two every year or would she spend a couple of months in the summer and socialise in the community.
3 years is a very short time so maybe in total she had only been there for 6 weeks max.
As far as we know, he barely knew of her existence.
I think that Alfie Lyons is as much of a suspect as Ian Bailey. There was at least some kind of dispute or conflict between them over the gate and that's where she was killed.
I think it's a strong theory she was killed in the morning.
She saw something out the window and put on her boots in a hurry and went down to the gate.
Someone was trying to steal the gate/electric pump/post maybe. I don't know.
Based on the facts it was correct for police to identify Bailey as a suspect but I still think he's innocent.
I trust Jerry Buttimer's instinct even though he would obviously be biased.
Stealing a pump wouldn't ya just fukk off rather than battering her
I know.
That theory is based on the fact that after assaulting her by the gate, the killer walked 20 feet to the pump house to get the cinder block to finish her off.
He had to remove the lid on the pumphouse to remove the block. There was plenty of other rocks nearby. How did he know the block was loose? It implies he may already have been interfering with the pumphouse. This is in darkness or morning twilight.
Maybe he thought it was a toolshed? It's possible.
The guy on Reddit is very good "PhilMathers" he's read all the available documentation like pathology report.
There was also some inconsistencies in Alfie's account of finding the body - he says he got no closer than 20 yards, so instead of getting close to see if the person needed help, says his first response was to go to Sophie's house to see if she was ok. Seems a strange thing to do, could just be a sign of panic and not thinking straight at such a sight.
The housekeeper Josephine Hellen suspected that for a time when Alfie's house had no running water, he used water from Sophie's and may have even taken a bath.
Alfie was arrested in 1993 accused of growing cannabis in his garden, based on a "confidential informant". He only got off on a warrant technicality. Could he have held a grudge thinking it was Sophie who tipped the Guards off?
And then there was the conduct of his wife Shirley leaving the crime scene cordon to go to the dump, which is more suspicious than many things alleged about Bailey.
He does not have a strong alibi, given that he and his wife claim not to have heard anything of the violent murder that happened in the adjacent property.
There were quite a few sources of friction due to the close proximity of the two properties, listed on this reddit site below.
All this isn't to state oh Alfie was the killer, but he is at least as plausible as Bailey if not more so.
https://www.reddit.com/r/MurderAtTheCottage/comments/wkgh89/alfie_lyons/
I agree he's as much of a suspect as Bailey.
I think he may have been overlooked as he was in his 60s and he phoned the police initially.
Maybe he touched the body and that's how the blood smudge got on the backdoor. He said he immediately went to Sophie's house and knocked on the door.
Maybe he lied about only going within 20 ft as he thought he might get in trouble for interfering with the body although it's perfectly reasonable to check for signs of life.
Sorry can't find that?
Do you think it's possible the killer thought the pumphouse was a toolshed and walked 20ft there looking for a tool or implement to finish her off?
This answers two questions:
1) Why walk 20ft for a block when there was much closer blocks and rocks?
2) How did he know the block was loose? He didn't. He lifted the lid looking for tools and the block became loose so he used that instead.
Alternatively it's someone familiar with the pumphouse like a plumber or local or someone stealing the electric pump.
I agree that it's completely possible the murder happened in the morning.
This was a rage killing
The idea of a thief or Alfie bashing her head in over a dispute is implausible
...because he couldn't have had rage?
It's impossible to know.
Lots of latent psychopaths out there who appear perfectly normal but are capable of rage and violence.
Do you have a theory as to what happened yourself
Not really. I just don't believe that someone staggered a few Kms in the off chance that some French woman might give him his hole and when she went outside to turn him down he got violent. The drunk man managed to ensure none of his DNA was left behind and he then staggered the return journey home.
It's much more likely that she was outside for someone she knew. I also find it very surprising that shortly after making such a shocking discovery, Sophies immediate neighbours, with whom she had been having disagreements with, needed to get to the dump - the rubbish disposal really couldn't have waited a few days?
I'm also open minded as to the time of the murder and not set on the idea that it was during the night (which would then also rule Bailey out)
No, its not implausible.
Disputes between neighbours escalate to violence all the time.
Extreme example but shows anything is possible.
If this was a rage killing, its gets very difficult to pin a motive on anyone, especially Bailey.
The idea then someone got in a rage because she rebuffed their sexual advances is just a unprovable theory.
A cold night bailey wore gloves ?
I think Bailey was innocent but I don't think it can be said for certain he didn't drive the car if he did do it.
So you're now also ruling out the scratches were caused by Sophie's struggling - make up your mind!
You do know that he had a history of assaulting women when consumed with an uncontollable rage yeah?
Apparently that is of absolutely zero significance whatsoever. Extreme violence as well.
Could the pumphousing have been a storage spot for drugs? Or an exchange point for cash? Remote spot could explain its choice and the users alarm at suddenly being uncovered and confronted..
Would be worth swabbing and fingerprinting the interior.
I'm aware of this. His partner you're referring to. Not a woman who lived over three miles away, that it isn't even proven Bailey had ever met.
The smart comment as usual
Ya I forgot the scratches no gloves
It happens
Over 3 miles? Where did you say that. BBC claims 2.
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