Prediction : An Irish 23 without an Ulster player v France - McCarthy is streets ahead of Henderson as a bench option & Henshaw will also get the nod ahead of McCloskey on the bench
Streets ahead.. disagree but we’ll see.
I honestly would rather McCarthy starts. Not only because he's been on fire this season but if you have to ask me who I'd prefer coming off the bench with 20 to go, an experienced but quality option in Beirne or inexperienced but quality option in McCarthy I would much prefer the former.
France have gone with 7-2 split v Ireland last 2 years. Even without Dupont and Ntamack I think they'll do it again.
Woki, Willemse, Cros, Ollivon, Aldritt. Reps: Taofifenua, Paul Boudehent?, Alexandre Roumat?
Beirne, Ryan or McCarty, vdF, POM, Doris Reps: McCarthy or Ryan, Baird
I mean it has to be Baird over Conan.
On McCarthy.......just looks amazing right now!
I'm still skeptical about the Nienaber appointment. Have to admit though McCarthy has come on leaps and bounds. He looks brilliant defense. Continually up onto his feet and then gets off the line really fast in defense, again and again.
He's the form lock in the country and ticking allot of boxes:
Importantly he is dominant when he's doing all of these things.
To nitpick: This passage of play (58' 30'') v Leicester highlights some the pros's & cons of McCarthy right now.
https://youtu.be/rl2EuuZiXzQ?t=5809
He's gives a way a pen before his burst up the field. He is played out afterwards and this time comes off after 70mins.
I think Farrell will start with Ryan but I wouldn't be too surprised if McCarthy got the nod.
Hard to win a job if you never actually get a chance to do the job
Prendergast in for Ahern
Pity for Ahern but a good chance for Prendergast to prove Farrell wrong.
9 on the bench is a bit "cheaty" isn't it.. but hey.. they're French !!!
Watching Munster last weekend and I was massively impressed with Casey. A fantastic performance. I think Murray is done. Casey is really at the races.
Shame for Ahern but no surprise once they said he was in hospital overnight. Probably needs a week of complete rest if not a few given how rocked he was coming off. Prendergast really deserved inclusion from the outset so I'm fairly pleased for him to get the call up and to be involved.
I don't think it will make any impact on any selection throughout the tournament though, ultimately. He's highly unlikely to be in any 23 barring injuries.
I’d start henderson/ryan and beirne. McCarthy hasn’t done anything yet to really jump henderson or Ryan for me.
I think its the second time Ahern has been called into a squad and injured right before it.
Its a shame because with his physical profile he could move extremely quickly once in.
Hes jumped henderson for me.
he can effect the play in ways i havent seen henderson do in a few years at this stage.
His big downside is still those silly pens he tends to give away which can be game changing at test level, but henderson has a habit of the odd brain fart as well.
Jumped Henderson how? Henderson was better than Ryan in the world cup.
I dont see the point of this comment. Im not arguing ryan was better than henderson at the RWC.
Yea. So i doubt anything since then will matter for farrell. For super established players provincial form doesn’t seem to matter at all compared to how you play for ireland and in camp.
Anyway, i don’t see it but we’ll see.
Im a huge McCarthy fan but not sure how you can say he has jumped Hendo, Hendo is in his peak now and his experience etc. His performance so far for Ulster have been decent and for Ireland very good.
McCarthy is the shiny new player and people love to put the shiny new player in, then once the player makes a mistake crucify him. His progress is great so far but I wouldn't him ahead of Hendo based on his match performance, maybe training might be different
You constantly spout this view that Farrell just ignores provincial form entirely.
On any objective assessment of form this season, Henderson has been the poorest performer of the four second rows in the squad. Joe McCarthy has had a number of stand-out performances, notably in European Cup games.
And, at the RWC, Henderson got in ahead of Ryan after Ryan got injured, and he then proceeded to turn in an absolutely anonymous performance against the All Blacks. So if your argument is that the only thing that matters is the last thing they did in green, then can't see that going in Henderson's favour either.
Iirc, it wasn't completely clear whether he got in ahead of James Ryan thru injury or form.
It's reported in multiple outlets that he sustained an injury in the South Africa game, including RTE:
The Leinster lock came on as a replacement in the Pool B win over Scotland but appeared to be playing through the pain. He had suffered a wrist injury against South Africa in the third pool match on 23 September.
The second-row has been struggling with a hand injury but was named in the squad to take on Scotland last weekend and came on in the second period. However, he suffered a setback during that encounter and, as a result, he will miss their last-eight tie with the All Blacks.
Lock Ryan, who injured his other wrist in the 13-8 success over South Africa on September 23, then added to the list of concerns for head coach Farrell.
Farrell commented on the injury and described him as "fit" and said he'd trained well, but acknowledged he'd picked up a wrist injury against SA. I think given how Ryan has been ever present virtually under Farrell, and played well against SA, that it's entirely reasonable to suggest his widely reported on injury was the cause of him dropping to the bench for the Scotland game.
If we'd had a bigger game there against an opponent we were more fearful of, then I think Ryan would have started.
Very possibly so. But like I said, it wasn't completely clear.
The argument for the injury being the significant factor is a more likely assessment than claiming it's on form.
We'd just had a significant win against one of the favourites for the tournament, and Ryan played well in that game. His average player rating across 8 different entities who compiled player ratings on the game (Rugbypass, Irish Mirror, RTE, Irish Times, Ruck.co.uk, Planet Rugby, Extra.ie and Balls.ie) is 7.0/10.0, with 3 6/10s, 3 7/10s, 1 8/10 and 1 9/10 rating. I couldn't get the Independent or 42 player ratings as both are pay walled.
That's not exactly the profile of a guy who is going to be dropped on form IMO.
The argument for the injury being the significant factor is a more likely assessment than claiming it's on form
I didn't claim it was on form. I said it wasn't completely clear. Nothing you've said contradicts that.
An aside, but personally I wouldn't read too much into player ratings from a good few of those sites.
Yeah, I don't generally place any real stock in player ratings.
But equally, I don't think it's strong enough for me to just say I thought he played well against SA, and that it would be highly unlikely to me that Farrell would pick that moment to completely change up his thinking on second row composition and drop Ryan based on form.
I also didn't cite one or two player ratings, but 8 separate ratings, so the average across that is fairly indicative IMO.
Ya, look, it can be both much more likely he wasn't dropped on form and still not completely clear. (as you say yoruself, Farrell declared him fit for the Scotland game but selected Henderson).
It appears we agree more than not.
The worry with Joe McCarthy is the penalties given away. He's almost a sure bet for 2 a match.
I think McCartyhy will cement his position relatively soon, maybe by next 6nations. We have 2 locks the wrong side of 30 and obviously age will be a factor over the long term.
I thought Farrell should have had Cian Prendergast in the initial squad even with Ahern called up so happy to see him called up now.
Shame Ahern loses out through no fault of his own, hopefully, if he declared fit to play after the RTP protocols that he'll get time in camp.
There were a number of anonymous performances against NZ including ones that veered into the straight up negative in our back row. I doubt they will be dropped either.
McCarthy has played well for Leinster this season. I don’t think that will translate to being ahead of henderson for ireland instantly but i guess we’ll see..
Penalties and a relative neophyte in the lineout.
I don’t know if i would be comfortable with him and VdF in same back five. That puts a ton of pressure on other jumpers.
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