A bit pointless talking about the 'Merican elections, isn't it? All hypothetical now, coz over the weekend Ukraine has bombed a Russian missile factory, a Russian manufacturer of air defence systems and one of the main Russian oil export terminals. So much escalation of the kind we were told must be avoided at all costs; this has surely got to be the week that Putin uses Da Bomb!
when the rubber hits the roads, American voters are not going to be voting on Biden's record on Ukraine or Israel - well, maybe the latter to an extent. It'll come down to all the usual items voters will want, re. economy, jobs and so on. Twinned with the threat of the return of a man openly talking of revenge and dictatorial inclines towards the Presidency (and not openly saying the Constitution allows gives him immunity from illegal acts). Biden got the nod in 2020 in many respects because of fear and loathing towards Trump - same as it will be again.
There is a lot of water that must flow under the bridge before we get to Trump 2.0; and I'm not convinced it's as bleak as those suddenly rending their pearls 'cos DeSantis dropped out. He was a nothing man, while you got interesting polls of specificity that note 50% of Haley voters would switch to Biden in the event she drops out; that alone is mad stuff. And even then, I'm also not convinced Trump is either so stupid, or so in the pocket of Russian oligarchs that he'd end whatever economic bump the American industrial arms complex is enjoying thanks to their supply to Ukraine.
Or indeed will Putins underlings get fed up of watching all their yachts and frozen billions ending up in Ukraines coffers? They might decide they don't want to sink with the rotting ship.
Yachts are easy to replace; it's the loss of the unfrozen billions that I'd be more concerned about - if I was Putin. While there's money to be made syphoning off a portion of the funds being redirected to military spending, there'll always be more to be made through regular international trade (legal or less legal) and that must surely be suffering now.
Even at 40$ a barrel, you can't sell oil that you can't suck out of the ground because your equipment has failed, nor pour into tankers because the ships all sailed away from a drone strike that set fire to your product.
There are only so many times you can claim insurance on your burnt-down buildings before there is literally no money left in the fund. And you can't take bribes from people who are rotting in a field in Ukraine, or off their heads on vodka in a street in Russia.
We hear many stories (and yes, they may be just stories, but ...) about people at the front lines and a long way behind not being paid their salary. If there's a shortage of cash, sooner or later a significant part of the local economy and its workforce will grind to a halt. I would think that even in the gilded salons of Moscow, there's many an oligarch watching his current account balance trend downwards with no obvious way for that trend to be reversed.
Trump can go one of two ways. He'll say anything to get re elected but if he does there's no real pressure on him to do anything really. He could easily break promises as there's no re election for him to worry about. Personally however I believe he'd be a right ****.
Trump can say a lot of e.g. leaving the Nato but he can easily be swayed. When he came to Europe and meet Stoltenberg about Nato being obsolete and he was full of praise. https://www.politico.eu/article/jens-stoltenberg-donald-trump-nato-secretary-general-brain-death-emmanuel-macron-mission-accomplished/
What Trump can achieve is that the Europeans finally getting their finger out of the backside and realise that the peace dividend has been used up and the world is a less peaceful place.
BTw Putin signed a decree that challenges amongst others the sale of Alaska to America. https://essanews.com/putin-stokes-tensions-with-us-declares-1867-sale-of-alaska-illegal,6987041965938817a
Source is a bit sketchy, if true all alarm bells should ring loudly even for the deaf in the backseat.
could have been:-
(1) Ukraine army
(2) Russian army but blame it on the UKr army . There are precidences on the Russian side
(3) a Russian fired missile that was meant for Kiev or. Wherever but went out of control
I once read the theory that Russia's excellence in chess arises out of the fact that they encourage the harmless game to absorb intellectuals so they won't become a political threat. Would not surprise me if it was true.
More fire
The communist system pushed anything that did not cost them hard cash, wrestling is very big in the schools, ditto chess. etc.Its a very popular game there, they play it on the streets and in the parks, oblivious to what's happening around them, which is a good thing, considering the world they live in, and whats actually happening there.
Yet people seem fixated on losing or gaining ground. And even when the Russians do manage to take a few kilometer's, its at stupendous cost in men and equipment. Clearly, Ukraine is inflicting the death of a thousand cuts on Russia. For sure, Ukraine is not losing.
Doesn't matter what red lines putin has, he invaded ukraine, therefore all conditions regarding ukraine and nato are now moot. The west is alot stronger than russia, they just have to tell russia ,ukraine is joining nato and eu, end of discussion, what you going to do about it. The west should be flexing its muscles regarding ukraine now
The Ukrainians have gone quite on it , last time that happened it turned out to be a Ukrainian missile strike gone wrong
Normal practice for an incumbent VP is for them to run for president after the incumbents second term when they can no longer run again or after an incumbent president loses a re-election bid. There has never been any indication form the Corporate Democratic Party that Biden was seen in any other way. So that may indeed be the wishes of the corporate Democrats in the future but not in 2024.
For me it’s 50/50 if Trumps actually is there on election day… so many cases and he seems to be cognitively declining rapidly. If Hailey is the Republican nomination she beats Biden easily. I think she will back Ukraine and Taiwan.
The fragments of the rocket / bomb ect. should tell a lot.
Yes they should
Sure, they have to try and keep warm....🧟
But who can INDEPENDANTLY confirm source of bomb and who fired it. Eg could the Ru have acquired some arnaments that UKr was using - where a UKr firing position was captures /urgently abandoned.?
Pe
Exactly and this is something both sides would have the ability to do. I'm gonna go with Russia though. There is some video evidence but they must have needed some new propaganda for Putin's election to push the genocide in Donbass myth.
I see Russia have made minor gains at Avdiivka. So they've really no choice to keep going until they finally take it now. At least if they'd no progress they could just move elsewhere. But the job will have to be finished now. I hope it costs them 100k troops and takes half a year. Would be hilarious though if they never take it but I suspect weapon shortages could force the Ukrainian hands.
Found this social media post claiming the range of the shelling means it could not have been Ukrainian forces:
https://www.threads.net/@wbhgnews24/post/C2ZE4YXPzvo
As much as grinding down Russians is worth the effort it's still comes at the loss of Ukrainians and with the lack of American aid coming it could March before an agreement is made but Republicans can push that out further again they could really strangle the Ukrainian effort and another clock has started to tick on Ukraine on top of Mobilisation issues they have the conscription law is limited to three years before conscripts have to be released and allowed to return home , they might have to make difficult decisions over the next 6-8 months
Ukranians playing a very clever game here.
The more the AA is sent to the back, the more the EW is exposed.
The more the EW is hit , the more everything else on the ground becomes a nice target.
Keep hitting the oil!!!
Until fragments of the weapon(s) fall into Ukrainian hands, everything is speculation.
And by false they mean true
I assume sending a couple of marine drones into the baltic to attack the oil terminals by st,petersberg would be a bit delicate - cant imagine the neighbours being too thrilled..
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