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Storm Isha - Sunday 21/Monday 22 January 2024

Meteorite58

Thought it timely to start a thread to keep a focus on the possibility of a storm for next Sunday as we move under T120 . On the latest model runs shown as a fast approaching and rapidly deepening potential Storm system being powered up by a very strong and fast Jet ,currently tracking off the NW and getting down as low as 953hPa . Some models showing it to be quite windy the day before also. Good agreement from the main models of a potentially strong to severe wind event on sunday at this stage but as was seen over the previous few days it had initially been shown to be off the scale severe but has moderated some bit and could moderate more.

In general moving into a very mobile Atlantic regime from later Fri/ early Sat up until the following Weds or so at least with lots of warnings possible for both wind and possibly heavy rain in the Western side of the country at times, more so in Atlantic coastal counties where a high sea state could add to the risk of coastal flooding.

Some models showing Monday to be quite windy also and again for late Tues or Weds with another signal for very strong winds so can keep an eye here to see if there are other strong wind events being picked up by the models up to next Weds.

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Mod Note: This thread could get busy towards the weekend if a Storm materializes so your cooperation is greatly appreciated to please stay on topic, use appropriate threads and please adhere to the forum charter. Off topic posts cant be moved so will need to be deleted. Everybody is entitled and welcome to post on the topic. This is a thread for weather enthusiasts to discuss ,speculate and give opinion on the upcoming windy weather and post observations and relevant data in a civil and friendly manner.

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nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121646599#Comment_121646599

Yes, my mistake, I should have said upgrade the marine warning to include some coastal counties.

sunbeam

Massive Thunder, lightning and flickering lights here in Achill now. Seems directly to the north of me. Didn't expect this before tomorrow.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121646598#Comment_121646598

Yeah, I am not expecting it to lead the table or anything, but it might be one of the more powerful storms in more recent times

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121646605#Comment_121646605

There sure was. Don't 'keel' over with the fright

Screenshot_2024-01-21-02-47-35-108-edit_com.android.chrome.jpg

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121646610#Comment_121646610

Of course, Nacho. It sure looks like it. Trees aren't laden with leaves this time of year though so that's one plus. Another is that the worst of the winds occur outside of high tide on the west coast. There is an element of the unknown about a countrywide wind event though. I can't believe the GAA hasn't called off their club final games yet 🙄

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121646602#Comment_121646602

I thought for the last few storms met Eireann did away with the "countywide" basis.

For example Clifden and Portumna are worlds apart (in storm speak)

NIMAN

I really hope this turns out to be a major anticlimax.

adocholiday

Borrisokane and Birr might be erased if the UKMO 00z is right

lumphammer2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121646623#Comment_121646623

It needs to ... all we have got since that war started is winter winter winter and more winter ... last good summer was 2021 ... and all we get is lightning and rain and wind .... let us hope this is not a hurricane .... everyone is talking like it is but I do not see the official evidence yet ... either way still miserable unwanted weather ... give us something else ... but I do not think that will happen until this war ends ... it sucks in wind to fill the void caused by vacuum ... 31st December 2021 to May 2022 was the last time we had a really long spell of proper settled weather ...

Eibhir

Friday i said you never really know until the storm hits, which still holds true for me.

However the more models I look at I feel this storm will be bad enough, regionally especially, in areas not used to such wind gusts.

I wouldn't rule out it being a 24 December 1997 or Darwin 12 February 2014. I'd give it a 30% chance of that.

Darwin upgraded throughout the morning and afternoon, 12 February 2014. 24 December 1997 hardly made the 1pm lunchtime news. Stephen's Day 1998 only made the headlines as it was hitting the northern half of Ireland. Of course the 1990s were a different world.

But tomorrow has a lot of unknowns yet.

My take:

20% less impactful than forecast.

50% pretty much as forecast.

30% a notch higher. On a par with storms of 1974, 1976, 1988, 1990, January 1991, 1997, 1998.

ThaitaniumM

Could be another Darwin type storm here in Limerick City with winds coming up the Estuary once again yikes. I remember Darwin very well, it blew the gutters off our roof, the noise sounded like constant grenades going off. 😬

WolfeEire

Storm Isha has the potential to generate some very damaging gusts overland during Sunday. The overnight model output varies to some degree regarding the location of strongest winds, but it all points to this being a notable storm mainly due to its wide geographic impact. Nowcast territory.

WolfeEire

Latest satellite imagery. Isha is currently packing sustained wind speeds of 90+kmh.

Screenshot_2024-01-21-04-46-56-522-edit_com.android.chrome.jpg

Screenshot_2024-01-21-04-44-45-894-edit_com.android.chrome.jpg

sryanbruen

I have upgraded the storm comparison table since I last posted it with lots more of the named storms that have impacted Ireland since naming began in 2015-16. Boards will compress the hell out of the image as I post it but oh well. The sustained winds counterpart is still in the works, been saying that for a few years now I know..

Using this table, the storms with the largest wind field or impacted the highest number of stations are:

Darwin (12 February 2014) had 23 of the 25 stations with yellow warranted gusts or greater.

Ali (19 September 2018), Ophelia (16 October 2017) and Erich (27 December 2013) had 22 of the 25 stations with yellow warranted wind gusts or greater.

Highest average max wind gust storms nationally:

Darwin 122 km/h

Ophelia 107 km/h

Doris (23 February 2017) 106 km/h

Erich 105 km/h

Ulli (03 January 2012) 104 km/h

Ali 103 km/h

I shall update on this again on Monday.

DOCARCH

My Netatmo app showing 119 km/h gusts for me in Greystones later. Have not seen that (such a high windspeed) before!

Donegal Ken

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121646545#Comment_121646545

Based on this mornings runs looks like we could see Donegal, Connacht, Much of Munster and south Leinster upgraded to a red.

UK Met Office must be thinking about it for Northern Ireland also.

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121646698#Comment_121646698

Just checked the gfs and it decreased gusts by 10 12mph overnight for Donegal .

Montage of Feck

Isha is after waking me up! Wasn't expecting the worst of her until much later.

M.T. Cranium

I would go red for Donegal, mayo, parts of Galway, possibly Clare, and isolated "tornadic streak" type red alert conditions are possible anywhere well exposed to SW-W winds. Various models picked up on this and have attempted to depict where these streaks may occur. But forecasting them is by no means an exact science. I do feel they will materialize, warnings associated will be of the "nowcast" variety.

The surface gradient may not be all that different from more moderate events, but the upper support is very strong and the dynamics will mix strong low level jet stream winds down near the ground. Worst conditions will be late afternoon but the southern inland tornadic wind streak potential may peak before the coastal wind maximum associated with windshift from SW to W (looks to be around 6-9 pm).

ascophyllum

Arpege which looked way ott a few days ago now looks to have been on the money, a last minute shift north would be very welcome, total nowcast for the rest of the day. Very interesting how Met Eireann interpret it - somewhere is likely to end up with Red level conditions.

JanuarySnowstor

It's already getting windy in the Cork area. This event has sped up quite a bit its actually an afternoon/evening event now and will be clearing by around 10pm. Perhaps more dangerous now as more will be out in it!

Orange warnings should be brought forward by about 3 hours to reflect the system coming in quicker

not that afraid

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121644543#Comment_121644543

Appreciate people get annoyed about queries on flights here and that it's hard to say but struggling to make a call on this and would appreciate if there's is any advice other than wait and see what airline says. (It's Ryanair )

Has anyone flown in what these conditions look like they will be? Based on current models will a flight landing in Dublin around 1am miss the worst or likely to be cancelled, heavily delayed, or do they usually just plough through unless there's a red?

Can change the flight for reasonable price but it's another night of accom and another day of leave from work. Ryanair unlikely to update until late in the day so would prefer not to make unnecessary journey to airport with babies if highly likely we won't get away. No worries if can't say, Thanks

aisling86

I am very surprised with the tempo of this in cork already!

Neddyusa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121646663#Comment_121646663

Yes it's the overland gusts shrown right across the Midlands that's most concerning from a damage and risk to life point of view. 90 or 100km gusts in the middle of the country would do 10 times the damage of 130km in the North west.

I don't recall any storms in recent years with such strong and widespread inland gusts?

DOCARCH

Red marine warnings now extended covering coasts from Clare to Donegal.

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121646763#Comment_121646763

The worst of it for Dublin looks like being 7pm to around 11pm. It looks like being a windy flight but shouldn't be cancelled.

[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121646704#Comment_121646704

Fermoy here and same. One gust was house rattling

tom1ie

Gusts sounding quite frequent and a constant drone of wind already outside my window in south Dublin @08:24!

When are we expecting the worst of this in the Dublin area?

MrDerp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121646763#Comment_121646763

I travel quite a bit for work, and I’ve been cancelled/delayed/diverted quite a bit as a result.

it’s far too early to say what’ll happen re Dublin Airport and a flight tonight. Landing conditions are likely to be ok, The biggest factor for a later flight is actually whether or not your crew and plane can be in the right place for your flight to take place. If they’re subject to significant delays and get displaced the airline might decide operationally to cancel an over and back from their base to somewhere to get everyone in position for later flights. That might work in your favour. Equally they might keep chasing the schedule and run your flight 2 hours late.

if you look up your flight on flightradar24.com you’ll be able to see the plane that’s planned for use, click on this to see where it’s going today. It might be flying around Europe with little risk to its schedule from an Ireland storm, or it might be doing stansted to Dublin all day and going all over the shop as the day progresses.

Some airlines will start operationally cancelling flights if congestion builds. KLM and AL in my experience are good for cancelling early if they’re gonna. BA are good for having a standby crew, I’ve been surprised by on time flights with a late change in plane when the intended inbound craft is delayed. Ryanair ….. well they might cancel it when you’ve been sitting through a 1 hr delay already.

Montage of Feck

In the SW here and there's been constant strong wind with regular squally gusts since at least 06:30 with no sign of it moving away.

[Deleted User]

Very quiet in north kildare. A miserable day but not a storm.