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Cold spell - 14/15th January onward

WolfeEire

A very cold spell of weather is expected from later Sunday through the following week up to Friday at least, with an anticipated return to less cold conditions next weekend.

This thread enables us to discuss pre-120hrs and post-120hrs model output without diluting/separating the conversation in the other pre-existing threads.

This spell of weather has been signalled by model output for the last 10 days + and, in fact, has been touted as a strong possibility by the UK Met Office the week leading up to Christmas. Significant anticipation had built up due to talk of a PV split and solid Greenland blocks. Expectations have subsequently been tempered by the present outlook of 5-6 days of very cold and relatively dry weather. This is not 2010 nor is it 2018 and expectations for same should be dropped. However, cold spells like this in January have been as rare as hen's teeth over the past decade and therefore, merits a thread of its own.

As things stand (Friday afternoon pre 12z runs), the forecast slow moving and relatively unstable northerly airflow will likely bring snowfall across Ulster, west Connacht and Munster and perhaps further inland, while any troughs that pop up would widen the risk area. These finer details are days away from becoming clearer and can be discussed here.

Daytime temperatures will hover around 2-4c in all but exposed coastal locations (slightly higher), and will invariably struggle to get above freezing in some locations due to a variety of, as yet, difficult to forecast conditions e.g. existing snow cover, freezing fog, inversion etc. Shaded spots away from the light northerly wind will likely to stay frozen throughout the period and untreated road surfaces will be tricky to negotiate.

Met Éireann and @M.T. Cranium are suggesting a less cold solution and this thread is in no way set up as a challenge to their forecasts.

Beyond next Friday, conditions are expected to become less cold as the Greenland High dissipates and a mobile, cold zonal Atlantic pattern takes over (based on current guidance this afternoon). This is a long way off and will be subject to change.

I will continue to report what the models are saying for my part and I look forward to an interesting week of winter weather.

Enjoy!

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Comments

Gonzo

Current modeling suggests that the Atlantic may be back for about 2 weeks and after that we may go blocked again for middle portion of February but will we see a cold spell and winds in from the east/north-east, time will tell.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121610380#Comment_121610380

If we could just move it all a hundred miles further south:), but yes it looks very good for you Senor Pangea. We will all hopefully get something from a trough or something that pops up. The short term hi res models may bring a few surprises.

Cluedo Monopoly

The weather today is just lovely. Bone dry and no wind, perfect for long walks. Going to spend the next new hours in the garden. Another week of this would be just wonderful. Obviously snow would be a bonus. We all needed this dry spell. I think it has lifted everyone's mood.

Slashermcguirk

Have you seen the temps in Canada and USA! Down to -40 degrees in Edmonton and Calgary. Mammoth snow around great lakes, Chicago, iowa etc.

They get such phenomenal snowstorms over there and serious cold temps. Then you just know they will get sunny hot summers.

Damn I need to move. Ireland and UK wait years just for 3-5cms of snow. If they could just send some of theirs from North America

aidanodr

What is this fascination with snow? :D .. If we get it we are generally not prepared for it infrastructure / equip wise and everything can grind to a hault. Whats the fun in that people :D

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121609646#Comment_121609646

End of week cold/mild prospects

Just going back to this and I know MTC subsequently mentioned the possibility of a slower warm up at the end of the coming week. The overnight run of the GEFS (top) is a little more aggressive with the breakdown than this morning's run (bottom). All members show a low rapidly crossing the Atlantic, each at a slightly different angle. The majority hit us head on and the remainder gave a more southerly or northerly trajectory. There has been a further increase in the number of members showing a more southerly tilt to the system as it approaches us. At this point, I would say the period from Friday through Sunday holds some interest for, at least, higher ground in Ulster and mountains elsewhere with the potential for precipitation to start out as snow there. The trend is absolutely toward less cold conditions but the scatter in temps from Friday is quite extensive. It will feel raw in that wind as the cold rain smacks us in the face 😭 anyway, worth keeping an eye on the below. I've used a low lying central Ireland location (Athlone) for the purpose of presenting a neutral Mean example for this post

I enclose the link to the 850s for the GEFS for anyone interested. It's set at default for Dublin here

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=64981&model=gfs&var=2&run=06&lid=ENS&bw=1

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121610489#Comment_121610489

Each to their own I guess. Invokes childhood memories for some, it's something others want their children to experience in a warmer climate, and for the likes of me it beats having to wake up to wind driven, warm rain every day of the year. This is also a weather forum. Would you go on the forestry forum and question the members about why they are interested in different planting techniques because you do not understand the fascination? Maybe you would, I don't know 🤣

Neddyusa

Watch out for the local "upgrades" now that we're coming <120 hours for the interesting stuff and at the bottom of the "optimisim-pessimism" wave...

aidanodr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121610511#Comment_121610511

@WolfeEire I am just curious is all. And what a better place to ask that Q about snow than in a weather forum. Of course you dont have to like snow but still be into weather.

Its a Q that struck me because here in Ireland we all get fascinated about THE PROSPECT of snow but then when it actually happens and the Councils etc cant handle it right nor those driving .. we get all sorts of anger & complaints HERE and everywhere else. Things like why cant we have the state equipment like USA etc for essentially what turns out to be a short event, once a year if we are lucky. And if we did spend on this equip people would be complaining that this expenditure should be going somewhere else. You just cant win :D

I like snow & weather discussions BTW but here snow & ice does disrupt rather than being seen as normal and dealt with accordingly as is elsewhere.

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121610413#Comment_121610413

If we get another cold snap/ spell I'd say at least 2 or 3 weeks away. Usually seems to be at least that amount of time between them. Perhaps 2nd week of Feb?. Another period of winter that seems devoid of decent cold is mid Feb. Can't remember the last really cold valentines day for example. Wouldnt be surprised if we will have to wait till the very end of winter. Sometime in the Second half of feb.

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121610489#Comment_121610489

Children get to build a snowman.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121610547#Comment_121610547

You're correct @aidanodr We certainly ain't built for snow in this country. It is rarity in Ireland which is why most members like to see some occasionally. Some people on this forum much prefer long, hot summer spells too. I don't know anyone interested in weather that likes the mundane. I am conscious of how the coming week and even present conditions impose additional financial hardship on people in heating their homes and how snowfall could impact others' livelihoods, but we are here to discuss something nobody can control. We are simple, spectacled meteorological trainspotters.

WolfeEire

ECMWF 06z surface temps at 2 metres for the coming week. Little precip away from Tuesday on this reading for the Midlands

This chart shows air temps and precip for Letterkenny

The Cork readings show little precip of any nature

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121610744#Comment_121610744

Not what I want to hear Wolfe!!! Not at all!! 🤣

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121610539#Comment_121610539

Out cutting wood in the garden atm, enjoying the opportunity to clear away the winter jobs, overcast cool benign day, quiet, can hear a small airplane close by move up and down the power coming into land at a local airstrip, great spell of weather really and the ground is drying out well.

Looking at the ECM and ICON briefly there certainly looks to be an upgrade in wintry precipitation moving in Mon into Tues across from the NW to E kind of direction, weak enough system, probably decaying on transit but still possible for some snow. On the latest runs it looks to be a bit heavier and moves further across the country. One to watch, might only give a dusting to some but could give a couple of cm's in places too.

I think one of the features early in the week will be very dangerous road conditions after rain freezes. Along the W and SW and E showers straying inland could also cause difficult driving conditions .

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121610752#Comment_121610752

Likewise, @Meteorite58

Been out in the garden and there is a lovely healthy chill in the air and it's dead calm. Ground still sodden here and today I noticed the grass has grown a good bit since December 😭

Looking forward to the coming week's weather as some people may get a surprise snow covering. The higher risk areas are Ulster, north Midlands, Connacht and west Munster.

Donegal Ken

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121610410#Comment_121610410

Met Eireanns App is based of there HARMONIE model up to 48 hours and the there after it's based on the Ecmwf weather model.

Met Eireann don't manual input these temperatures its is all computer generated.

Rebelbrowser

Quick question for those who remember. In my area (Cork city) we got snow on the first day of the December 2010 cold spell, evening of Friday 17th if I recall correctly, but none after. I think that was from showers that came in from the NW of us, say in over north Kerry / Limerick / Clare. Firstly, is that right can anyone recall? Secondly, am I right in thinking they were streamers, not frontal snow? Can you get Atlantic streamers is basically what I'm trying to work out...

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121610853#Comment_121610853

You got the same as I did, Rebel. You got the dying embers of a disturbance moving down in the west coast in a slack northerly/variable that soon turned NE and shifted focus on the north and east. Below sat image from Dec 2nd

tom1ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121610417#Comment_121610417

Whereabouts are ya cluedo?

It’s horrible drizzly hazy rain here in South Dublin and has been for the last 3 hours or so.

Gonzo

not a nice day here in Meath, just a damp chilly and drizzely day.

WolfeEire

Significant northerly shift of the Azores low in the ICON 12z. About 100 miles further north. It would clip southern England and stay just offshore of our southern coast. Even if it were to reach us, it would do so during that mild sector so it would be mostly sleet at low levels.

WolfeEire

The ICON delays the breakdown on the 00z run which had put it down for Friday morning. On this run, it looks like it will hold until late Friday and even then, it will remain on the cold side into the weekend. The Jetstream is shifted/directed a little further south again. Furthermore, the op run below is much milder than the ensembles mean.

Meanwhile, wintry showers feeding in from tomorrow evening.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121610888#Comment_121610888

West Galway. I don't know what the temps are but I have been outside all day and it feels mild. A bit of outdoor work will warm you though. There are people actually cutting their lawns here today. The grass is very dry. I guess it was too wet for that last cut of the season around October. I am half tempted to cut my own.

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121610881#Comment_121610881

Thanks Wolfie. I was talking though about the second cold spell just before Christmas though - 17 to 25 Dec 2010. Cork got nada from the first spell at the end of Nov and start of Dec 2010 as your sat pic shows. We got snow then on 17 Dec I think...

Billcarson

If anyone does get even a dusting or a cm r 2 on Tuesday I would imagine most if it would stay on the ground till the breakdown. As wed/Thursday will be very cold.

nacho libre

Very Annoying to see the rain from the mild sector on Tuesday. It would be great if there was a sudden flip in the models to prolong the cold past Friday and the weekend, but of course that only happens when a cold spell gets taken away all of sudden. We've never been robbed of mild spell.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121610990#Comment_121610990

Same type scenario would have applied so. A trough may have formed in this northerly/NNW airflow and brought snow to you. As you suspected, it wouldn't have been a frontal system

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121610995#Comment_121610995

Yes, and GFS has amplified the mild sector just now.

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121611014#Comment_121611014

That probably puts paid to even a dusting for low levels anyway.