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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Gonzo

After a very wet and mild Autumn, the season turned cold right at the very end and now it's the all important winter season. Will the current cold conditions persist or will the Atlantic come back and stay here for the rest of winter like it usually does?.

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Mod Note:

This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onward for Winter 2023/2024.

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

Thanks

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Remaining chilly over this weekend but we have a warming trend showing that things will become milder during the first week of winter 2023/2024. Current GFS 6z has the Atlantic back in business from this week with low pressures and possibly some windy conditions during the week.

Temperatures next weekend back into double figures widely across the country with plenty of spells of wind and rain.

It continues very unsettled into the following week with low pressures from the Atlantic making it to Ireland with ease.

Week 2 of December starts on a mild note but may cool down as we get a north-east to south-east alignment of the jetstream.

by the end of the run we have warm air trying to move northwards up to the UK and Ireland from the south while at the same time some type of high is trying to form over western Russia and Scandinavian regions.

We finish up on a relatively mild note with the Atlantic still trying to control our weather.

Overall the trend is a warming one but it never gets particularly mild at any stage with temperatures after the recovery from this week close to average or slightly below at times. We are also likely going into a much wetter pattern especially from this weekend onwards.

The next 2 weeks starts off relatively dry over the next few days but becomes increasingly very wet, especially in the western half of the country with large rainfall totals possible by mid month.

There are a few ensemble members that want to bring proper wintry weather back by mid month but for now these are very much an minority option. Hopefully this thread will get alot more exciting soon enough with wintry potential!

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CardinalJ

I can semi read some of the models as they are put up and this thread has been brilliant in recent days. However with the way it was (is?) going I'll be screaming at the screen about what should be happening outside while my wife goes out with an umbrella and I wear ski goggles and crampons in the kitchen.

Villain

Very good agreement on ECM for cold to arrive by Monday, however it looks to be more by Tuesday and after that we see the spread. The majority still favour cold and the op is above the majority but are still too many mild options later next week for those wanting real cold. I think Mountains may be calling next week.

Snowbiee21

to my amateur eyes, this is generally turning into a damp squib for the duration of the spell. Last week was looking a lot more promising (as expected in FI) with the charts being in loo loo land. While the majority of charts still are, I feel as though yesterday's gfs has set some sort of trend with more of a milder theme. Personally im finished watching this spell. i hope im wrong, and ill hand you over to wolfeire who somehow seems to be controlling his patience :)

Condor24

Three or four days ago, we were looking at Arctic blast potential via ECM. That has gone, but we're still in a messy mix in the short term. Lovely charts are always ten days distant, then disappear. My hunch is we'll be back in zonal Atlantic flows in 8 or 9 days. No point in getting our hopes up anymore. Our winters are generally back ended these days, so mid February onwards we may get the goods. So disappointed ☹️.

Snowbiee21

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121598738#Comment_121598738

When you have no expectations you are generally less annoyed when things don’t turn out how you want them!

WolfeEire

Incredible scatter from Tuesday on the ECM. A spread of 14c in the 850s.

esposito

I’ve also lost interest in this chase. The juicy charts have been watered down too much and I’ve lost all faith unfortunately.

WolfEire, you have been brilliant with the analysis and fair play for constantly keeping us up to date.

Like some others in the east, I am biased and long for a proper easterly wind to blow in snow showers where I am. So if a Scandi high is in the offing I will get excited.

bazlers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121598853#Comment_121598853

I for some reason think the charts will improve for next week. I can see the High pressure in the Atlantic strengthening. I feel the models are undering cooking them.

I also share your thoughts on Wolf and a Scani High 👍

Pangea

Generally when must posters on here get excited I don't and vica versa,we seem to share opposite experiences, last winter was great here in Donegal, I had a few snow days overall, the first time in a long time. 2018 Emma was such a bore fest here, no snow and the frost was useless as it was so dry with the easterly there was nothing to freeze here. A northerly will give good snow at my location the easterly can come then to keep it from melting..

stooge

I suppose its called fantasy Island for a reason....

This thread and the models always seems to build things up in terms of snow potential only to row back a couple of days later. Surely AI alhorithms in the models should be learning from the data you would think.

Its entertaining but its hugely frustrating also. GfS was on the ball it seems.

Meteorite58

Interesting talk and explanation ( after talking about this weeks weather ) how the Jet splits next week (partly due to a bifurcated Jet stream according to Marco Petanga ) and how and why there is a big spread in the models but the chances of some significant snow in the UK with a LP or LP's coming up from the S or SW possibly moving into colder air producing some significant snow in the UK . Would think there is possibility here too of some snow or a dump or two. Models will fluctuate but I feel they will keep going back to possible LP's and their fronts possibly interacting with colder air in some part of Ireland maybe from mid week or towards the end of the week. Charts not as deep cold as yesterday but it will take a few runs to see if that is a definite trend. Interesting model watching.

After the High gets shoved aside I reckon we are in for more mixed weather with more showers , weak fronts or troughs, low enough accumulations but will be watching to see if the midweek fronts have an impact on us, currently just off the South by the ECM and up over us from the GFS producing wintry weather and possible snow. Looks like it is going to remain cold out to the end of the week, possibly breezy to windy at times giving it a very cold feel. Some very hard or severe frosts next week and road conditions could get more tricky.

GFS taking on an active disturbed pattern after next week end coming in off the Atlantic, as ever we will see.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1745120817753559059

Gonzo

I feel we will have another go in February but if it's yet another northerly that's to be modeled again I'm not going to bother putting time and effort into it because it will most likely end up another pear shaped mess with nothing exciting away from usual places like Scotland and north-east England.

Easterlies of course can go wrong too but if you can get the long fetched ones from the urals/siberia they have a better success rate than northerlies for sure as there is never any Atlantic mixing involved once you tap into the deep cold and snow is much more likely from them.

We've been chasing a phantom cold spell for over 2 weeks now and it's hanging on by barely a fingertip with almost a week to go so I'm just going back to general model watching and see what happens next.

TheMilkyPirate

A lot of people packing it in here but with such a big spread in the ensembles I'm still on the hunt. We all know it can turn right back around to what we want overnight. It's clearly quite a complex evolution and nobody including the models has a firm handle on what will happen from Monday onwards. More runs needed lol

squarecircles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121599118#Comment_121599118

YEP AND THE SAME PEOPLE WHO keep saying thyre done with the chase will be back again in a few hours commenting. its nauseating, is there any block feauture on boards.ie

Rougies

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121599043#Comment_121599043

The main models we use are still purely mathematical, physics equations based number crunchers.

AI (deep learning) models are an emerging tech and show great promise. You can view some of their output here https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets=%7B%22Product%20type%22%3A%5B%22Experimental%3A%20Machine%20learning%20models%22%5D%7D

But you don't need AI to tell you that unless models and ensembles are in very good agreement about a cold event, they usually trend milder as we move closer to the event.

WolfeEire

Slight upgrade in the Icon as the heights to our south are not as pronounced ( see 18z bottom and 12z top), thus providing less of a barrier to the colder air making its southward push.

squonk

Been lurking and reading the posts with interest here myself but always had the feeling that thugs were going to go pear shaped in the end. I’m old which to just about remember the 82 effect and remember it being great. Not old enough to renege if it was expected but many of the other score events I’ve experienced haven’t been nailed down behaved. I went to bed last hear in March 9 thinking we’d just about get a snag scattering of score only to wake up to a pasting. Like @WolfeIRE i was lucky to be in the right place at the right time. 2010 I was in Dublin so benefited from the sea streamers then. 2018 was a rare nailed kn event. Really ask I want is she sustained cold and nice clear days. I’m more short we might not even achieve that next week really.

it seems like we’re chasing ever diminishing odds really. If the planet is heating up as they are saying it seems like these true cold spells will become nite and nite marginal with each passing year. It’s kind of depressing rash when you think about it like that, especially as we are also a small landmass with a huge maritime influence at the best of Times

Dazler97

I may have given up on life as I'm having a mental breakdown but I'm not giving up on models and snow yet we have another 4 weeks of winter and then after that it begins to fade as February progesses , if all fails I may have to go to Norway or Sweden for cold 🥶

United road

@WolfeEire

at this stage, if it literally only snowed in 1 spot in Ireland after all of the previous promising charts , i pray its in your back garden.

If anyone here deserves it, it is you.

Eibhir

This is starting to upgrade 😅

InAtFullBack

Graphcast by Google shows an interesting low for the north on Monday night/Tuesday morning.

Link to this model: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/graphcast_medium-mslp-wind850

Rougies

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121599178#Comment_121599178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121599383#Comment_121599383

Oh god, what have I done!!! 😂

Can we stick to the non-experimental models? There's enough clutter of different models already.

Servese

Lads the background synoptics are the most important. There is lots going on in the Atlantic and making models jumpy. They are all having a bad days then coming good again its becoming a pattern over the past few days. The lows will hit the cold air in many places there will be snow. Fine details is never until 24-48 hrs before. This is a locked spell heading towards us and will come good. It's a once in a lifetime set up.

Eibhir

It's just all so marginal. High ground will have an advantage, as always in these situations.

Still, all to play for. If we could straighten the isobars from the north. They have more meanders than a bad Irish side road.

WolfeEire

18z GFS op run much colder. Will take a look at ensembles to see if it verifies

nacho libre

A potentially historic snowfall for parts of England if the GFS is correct. Will it all trend further south in the end or further north. It seems like only another 5000 runs before we find out.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121599544#Comment_121599544

South Nacho. I would bet my life on it knowing the gfs

SpitfireIV

I could live with that...

brookers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121599252#Comment_121599252

I was watching yr for arklow and it had snow being dumped between 17 and 19th and then after lunch today no mention of snow. I felt so sad and down. I definitely need to take a break from reading all the posts. The highs and lows are so emotionally draining.

snowgal

This is what weather watching entails unfortunately, every year!! And just sometimes it comes good 😊 I’m not near giving up yet, hopefully next few models will turn those frowns upside down! This time next week we could have white gold, keep hoping everyone. The models just don’t know yet, it’ll change a lot until end of week, just enjoy the next few days