Old thread seems to be permanently locked. It will be interesting if anything can come of this at last.
Threadbanned Posters:
Forensics had done their work and gone by the time Bailey among others “traipsed” through the murder scene.
Unless I'm mistaken, as the Gardai failed to seal off the murder scene which allowed Bailey and others traipse through it, any DNA found can be claimed in a court to have been deposited when the source was traipsing around. Too difficult to prove otherwise and it potentially makes any scientific evidence worthless.
Finding DNA from someone in France would be incredible and finding travel plans along side that a miracle - however, I get the feeling Sophie’s son in his reference to being positive about 2024, after speaking with Gardai , is very much focused on an existing suspect rather than anyone new and certainly not a French person
It can be nearly impossible to prove you DIDN'T do something; the burden of proof must rest with the accuser!
A lot more innocents languishing in jails with long prison sentences I imagine - at least the innocent till proven guilty approach means there has to be a certain standard of proof against you- not infallible by any means especially for certain types of crimes but when it comes to murder it’s pretty damn good at only nailing the truly guilty
Might be much easier if guilty until proved innocent was the standard. Better conviction rates?
I admire the French system of justice.You are guilty until you can prove your innocence.Its why the French police sit on their backside most of the time.especially,when Irish get murdered on French territory.
The dark triad is known as psychopathy/sociopathy, Machiavellian and Narcissism.
They often come together.
Huge arrogance and ego and think they're untouchable.
If you mean Richard Satchwell he has only been charged so far and not convicted. He actually applied for bail at one court hearing recently.
Both himself and Bailey love the sound of their own voices, the publicity and notoriety associated with being a murder suspect. Joe O Reilly was the same, all three displayed typical narcissistic behaviour. Complete nutjobs.
That's most likely the most convincing for any jury if it can be narrowed down a lot more.
Suppose they find DNA of a person from France on the cavity block, and this same person can be traced to a booked and travelled flight from France to Ireland within the time frame of the murder. This will certainly raise strong questions which can't be explained away easily.
Most likely this could lead to a conviction. Or the accused could argue he was visiting Sophie at some point before the murder and over Christmas travelled to Ireland, as a tourist, not visiting Sophie. Hard to say, how a judge or a jury would see that.... It just shows how difficult it could get.
And then there is the mass media, public opinions and rumors.....
However travel records aren't kept that long, even less back then. Even worse, if the murderer travelled under a false name or fake passport, - and back then biometrics in passports didn't exist.
The rock and the block used to murder Sophie have been preserved.
The technology to extract DNA evidence from them is available and has been used successfully.
Plus Noel Long always denied his crimes and the only comments he ever made were when questioned by Gardai.
The Gardai have a lot more to work on in this cold-case review and as I said earlier in the thread they might have enough evidence even without DNA to solve the case.
But in his case there was DNA evidence extracted eventually from evidence preserved - that was a rape and murder case- there is no evidence of sexual activity in this case- much less likely for traces to be there and even less likely for them to be extracted successfully now - not a “like for like” case at all unfortunately.
That's what Noel Long thought too.
Ian likes to stay to stay very close to the case
Reminds me of that guy in cork that just got convicted
It might produce improved evidence but unless there’s “smoking gun” DNA evidence from the crime scene, I don’t think it will ever see the inside of a court room
Ian is very concerned that the cold case review he asked Drew Harris to conduct has been progressing without him actually being interviewed.
He has now cast doubt on the integrity of the investigation.
You couldn't make this stuff up it's so bizarre.
In the meantime the Gardai are very happy with the progress of the cold case review, they have reviewed nearly 10,000 pieces of information compiled over the last 27 years and examined a quantity of new material which has enabled them to build "a very strong and very detailed case around circumstancial evidence".
They are also using new forensic techniques in the twin track approach to solving the murder.
Ian said "This cold-case review seems to be taking some time, I would have thought I would have been contacted by the Gardai by now".
Don't worry Ian, I'd say they'll be contacting you alright when they are ready.
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/crime/ian-bailey-questions-integrity-of-sophie-toscan-du-plantier-murder-cold-case-review/a1653773016.html
The best chance of finding any DNA is obviously using the new advanced techniques on the rock and block that were the murder weapons.
Even leaving aside the chances of getting such evidence for a minute, in general terms, if a killer was gloved up , hat on, thick coat (given the weather at the time) and given any potential DNA evidence left ON the killers clothing is now well and truly long gone, I’d argue that the best chances of any DNA left at the scene would be on the poor victim herself - like a strand of hair or finger nail evidence - after that, given how poor Sophie was documented as dying, I don’t really see much chance of any other DNA evidence available- and you would have thought, such evidence would be uncovered at this point.
None of what I mentioned is "heresay evidence", it's all facts that have been acknowledged by Bailey who then tried to put a different spin on the facts.
Man with big mouth beware of foot.
I don't mean it's enough for a conviction but it gives the detectives someone to focus on.
If the DNA was from one of her french acquaintances, then they could check travel records etc.
I'd agree
DNA or a total reversal by the Thomas family are the only things that would bring a charge closer.
But the inconsistentcy of Bailey's information in the podcast and what is know in public about the case just adds to all that speculation about Bailey.
Unless its someone who has denied ever being at the place. And has a plausible motive.......
its along shot, I agree.
And touch transfer DNA being especially sensitive to cross contamination...
I don't think any further "hearsay evidence" or sudden remembering of something said or seen so long ago would lead to a conviction ( or even a charge) at this satge. That recent claim that Bailey couldn't have known where her car was parked unless he was actually stalking her is clutching at straws.
Forensic evidence.....Bailey's ( or one of the other possible suspect's ) DNA on the block would be a game changer.
Compelling evidence that Bailey and Sophie were associated may move things forward.
Jules doing a 180 turn and incriminating him would change everything.
It would need something new and compelling to result in a charge.
Just wondering, hasn't there been another Jim Sheridan documentary been announced? Or is this for 2024?
Is Bailey getting spooked i wonder
A bit of DNA and his words could land him in jail
I don't see it that way. Anybody could have touched that cavity block, minutes, hours before the murder happened. Even yourself, or myself, if we were there.
Legally, I doubt it's enough for a conviction in this case.
Unfortunately true. But it would still be nice to get even a tiny 'concrete' lead! (ho ho...)
So far there has been a maddening lack of data: it has all been guesswork and speculation. Even one tiny bit of forensic fact would be enormously helpful!
Yeah he seems optimistic alright - I wouldn’t hold my breath though on that brick delivering the killers DNA- and as for chain of custody and level of care of such evidence post murder, again likely an area a good defence team could deliver huge levels of doubt to a jury especially given the widespread incompetence of the original investigation
The cavity block with which the killer bludgeoned Sophie to death will be subjected to further analysis using this new M-Vac data extraction tool which, reportedly, can glean up to 88% more DNA from a blood stain than a cotton swab can. Pierre Vignaud (Sophie's son) at least is expressing optimism this could provide new evidence which may lead to a prosecution.
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