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If Metrolink was scrapped, what are the alternatives?

Idbatterim

I dont want to keep bringing the metrolink thread off topic. There are two sides, those with a crystal ball, saying it will be built and those not too confident, based on many very valid reasons and experience, disappointment over decades on the governments total lack of will and spending on public transport and rail in particular.

What are the options, if metrolink is scrapped on cost grounds, you cant say a high capacity metro is needed, then ditch it and say "ah shure buses will do it" HOWEVER! This is ireland and that is a totally plausible outcome.

In terms of a rail connection, are there options, that could connect the northern line to swords, to the airport and city centre, without the same spend? But actually be a realistic alternative. Not some luas finglas to the airport extension farce...

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Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121393015#Comment_121393015

It is absolutely not a "when" it gets referred. JRs were attempted to be brought against various aspects of the Luas and were not allowed. One of the points of the onerous consultation and review process is to leave no grounds for a JR.

Even if one does arise, there is no reason to suggest it is a 3 year delay.

Idbatterim

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121392841#Comment_121392841

Its the gobshites in the dail, they are the ones we need to be worried about...

Beta Ray Bill

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121392740#Comment_121392740

No we don't! Not in comparison to our piers in the EU. I do agree with you though that the planning process is absolutely f**ked and needs major over haul.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121392634#Comment_121392634

I think BXD is completely different, half the line was a repurposed rail line and the other half is on roads that were already there. Very little in the way of large complex structures had to be built (no tunnels, cuttings, bridges etc). It's laying tracks on roads.

Very similar to the Green line south, from Harcourt street all it was, was reopening a closed rail line. It's not a new project with 0 pre-existing infra

loco_scolo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121394664#Comment_121394664

Sure we've been building roads since the famine, and always under budget. How hard can a rail line be? Rhetorical. Easy, obviously.

Beta Ray Bill

@bk

but they have a similar population density to where Metro lines pass through in Copenhagen and Amsterdam.

Were they not all cut and cover designs/implementations? They're significantly cheaper. Those places are also quite flat which helps with depth.

Go read up on the Swords Masterplan, in particular the plans for Barrysparks and Crowcastle and the Fosterstown master plans. Homes for an extra 5,000 people in these plans right next to the Metro stations in the areas you are talking about here.

So I've friends living in Fosterstown and since Runway Two has opened they're looking to move, as are a great many others. I cannot see them building futher south to be honest. Plus they're also blocked by a golf course that's unwilling to sell up

Most of the area on the East of Swords is Commercial business park type places. That I cannot see them moving any time soon.

Fingal country council is notorious for planning permission/rezoning. They've earmarked the North West of Swords for residential development, and that's where nearly all the work is going on (Rathbeale Rd).

There's a stack of Polytent and Greenhouse farms to the east / south east of Swords that are 100% unwilling to move as they've invested millions in those sites.

Rest of your points are all 100% valid. And I would love a metro, the city 100% needs it. but €23 Billion worst case scenario.... who's signing off on that? 🙄

A far cheaper, faster and scalable option is elevated rail. But as has been posted many times on this and other threads on Boards... the planning process is absolutely goosed (Unless you're building cycle lanes that is)

cgcsb

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121390891#Comment_121390891

I would also predict a similar outcome, metrolink 1 won't be open a full day before every former nimby cries rivers about their area having no metro, we seen this with luas

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121391298#Comment_121391298

I think they'll start planning for line 2, once construction for line 1 begins.

I'd like Line 2 to be from Poolbeg Peninsula to Tallaght.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121395416#Comment_121395416

but €23 Billion worst case scenario.... who's signing off on that?

A) that number was plucked out of basically nowhere

B) it has literally been signed off on

I really don't see how elevated rail is a better solution??

Beta Ray Bill

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121396303#Comment_121396303

Really?

Leo Varadkar said it himself on Newstalks a few months back

https://www.newstalk.com/news/varadkar-extreme-case-scenario-could-see-metrolink-cost-e23bn-1360513

Why would he say something like that on Live Radio given the ongoing mess a NCH?

I don't think any contractor has been formally signed on to start the work on date "X"

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121396351#Comment_121396351

Yes, in an extreme case where multiple "unknown unknowns" kick in. It is a ludicrously inflated figure over the actual projected cost. The very basis for calculating it (things we have no idea about at the moment that might happen) means its plucked essentially out of nowhere.

There is cabinet approval for the Metrolink, which came after the "extreme case 23B" figure was first discussed.

Beta Ray Bill

I really don't see how elevated rail is a better solution??

Rough Maths, and knowns costs of building X

For 4 tracks you need 16 Metres wide.

The Track is going to be roughly 15,000 metres long

So that's 240,000 Metre Sq

The average price of a house in North Dublin is €405k with an average area of 175 metres Sq

That means a MAX of 1400 houses would be need be CPO'd if there was absolutely no flexibility around the lines route. (give it would cross roads, campuses, fields, industrial estates and business parks, it would probably be less than half of that number)

In any case, that means the total price of buying the Land would be €555m then another €1b for four track elevated rail.

Twice the capacity in terms of rails, less than a 10th of the price (€23b) and constructed in less than a quarter of the time.

Now I know you're going to say CPOing 1400 properties is beyond pie in the sky and you're 100% correct.

I'm just trying to demonstrate the cost 30 years worth of poor planning and the P!$$ take of a planning system that we have.

Interestingly, if you're out in the country and a government want to run a motorway through you're home or property... that's not an issue (And there have been may hundreds of homes/properties than have had to make way for motorways over the last few years) CPO'ing doesn't really happen in Dublin though, which is strange to me.

Beta Ray Bill

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121396362#Comment_121396362

I get what you're saying.

Underground costs can very wildly from €100m/km to €300m/km You could be talking €4.5B for just the track in the pipes not including the stations or rolling stock.

I think there will be many unknown unknowns

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121396517#Comment_121396517

Where does 1bn for entire course of elevated rail come from?

What about demolition costs of 1400 houses? And you havent budgeted any area for stations either.

Also much of the houses that would need CPOd would be in the city center and south, with massively more expensive property costs than your north dublin figure. Easily into 1-2bn of CPOs alone, maybe more.

Beta Ray Bill

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121396578#Comment_121396578

2 track elevated rail costs between €25m/km and €30m/km, 4 track will be double that.

You're correct about the City Centre and there is case to be made for running it underground south of Grangegorman.

Demolition would be a cost too, but more so in rerouting pipes, wires, etc. again, it's elevated, with the idea being to avoid that as much as possible. (Note that this is going be even more expensive for underground)

Clongriffin cost €22m (it's equipped for 4 track), Fairview cost around £2m in 1996 and it's elevated. Pelletstown cost €10m to build, even quadrupling that for 4 track elevated you're still only at €400m for 10 stations. (the overhead bridges are the expensive bit for these stations)

Strumms

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121385456#Comment_121385456

The Luas system is mickey mouse considering in such a big capital city, how little of the population it actually directly and conveniently serves.

I live in a busy, highly enough populated north Dublin suburb. The nearest Luas stop is a 15 - 20 minute drive away depending on traffic. I just confirmed that with google maps. That’s Mickey Mouse.

Of the 69 Luas stops. Around 50 ( quick count ) are on the Southside of the city, 19 on the North…. As a system that’s very much Mickey Mouse BS….

how many stops are interconnecting the lines like most credible, well thought out and intelligent public transport services ? A couple only.

Take Santry for example, it’s highly populated with both residential and businesses…residential population of or approaching 20,000 people…. and hundreds of businesses and workplaces…numerous business parks on that stretch, hotels, car hire, retail and banks….

yet you’d be over an hour walking to your nearest Luas stop. Same for a Dart.

the population is growing exponentially yet the pace in improving our infrastructure and services is at a fûcking snails pace in comparison.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121396740#Comment_121396740

By that definition the Metro will be "Mickey Mouse".

Networks don't happen all at once.

Beta Ray Bill

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121396747#Comment_121396747

Unless you're China..... 🙄

loco_scolo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121396517#Comment_121396517

16m only for four tracks? Get real. You'd need a buffer of 4metres each side, at least, to give space for access to the lines plus side roads etc. You'd also be cutting across numerous plots at angles cutting off more houses that you'd Ideally need.

In any case, good luck CPOing 1500houses. Wow.

Strumms

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121396747#Comment_121396747

thats entirely up to our politicians.

they don’t happen at once but in other countries they happen comparatively quickly and efficiently… so why does that not happen here..? Decades to start and then finally finish, just the first line of a metro… not a network, just a single metro line. 😅

go to Lisbon, Madrid, Copenhagen etc and just coming back with such an immense appreciation of how nice, easy and effectively effortlessly efficient great public transport is…. All integrated, reliable, safe and quick.

we are still waiting to start digging, we can’t integrate jack…

No Metro ? There really isn’t a plan B… too much cash has been spent now not to mention too many people here is Dublin for it ever to be considered getting canned… the result would probably be violence if that ever happened…

look at Lisbon, every year or two they are adding stations, upgrading lines, improving, working, bettering… the people need it ? they DO it.

we can’t get a single piece of track down yet. or a station built… Decades later and …

Beta Ray Bill

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121396846#Comment_121396846

For the Dart it's between 6.5m and 7m wide platform to platform in most straight stations. The Dart itself is 2.9M wide. 16m is more than enough. to accommodate 4 tracks

Remember you're effectively building a bridge. Kinda like the Noda line (and indeed many other lines in in the satellite cities around Tokyo):

And I'm not gonna go counting, but it would likely be significantly less than 1400 houses

[Deleted User]

There are no alternatives, OP.

We need the Metro.

Our great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great grandchildren will be paying for it though when the cost spirals to €40billion and it bankrupts the country and we go cap in hand to the IMF again.

Zebra3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121396919#Comment_121396919

€40bn?

Is it not gonna cost €100bn and all citizens will be forced to sell their kidneys? 🙄

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121396919#Comment_121396919

The costing is pretty accurate.

I think it's going out to tender soon so when that happens, they'll have a revised estimate.

The supply chain crisis is over and inflation is dropping, so that estimate will be pretty accurate.

Who knows, by then maybe the Ukraine war will be over, Putin resigns, sanctions are lifted and prices actually drop.

loco_scolo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121396898#Comment_121396898

You just need to add in the dense estates of SemiDs to that pic, instead of green fields. Great example....

Were they not all cut and cover designs/implementations? They're significantly cheaper. Those places are also quite flat which helps with depth

No the metro lines in Copenhagen and Amsterdam are bored tunnels. Of course some above ground where it makes sense, but the city center sections are fully bored and there is an absolutely massive train station built under Schiphol airport.

One of the Copenhagen lines is 100% underground and was bored out by two TBM's.

Both cities are actually quiet challenging to tunnel under. Amsterdam being built on lose soil (you know lots of land reclaimed from the sea) and required 4 new specially designed TBM's. And Copenhagen being built across two islands.

By comparison Dublin is far more straight forward, see the Dublin Port Tunnel.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121396865#Comment_121396865

I have limited interest in rehashing this all over again, but the reason the Metro was not built in 2010 was because of the GFC and there is nothing anybody could have done about that.

Yes, there are problems with planning in Ireland (and UK and most common law jurisdictions it seems), and the, what some would call, excessive levels of consultations are to pre-empt legal shenanigans. That is deeply unfortunate but an incredible difficult, if not intractable, problem.

The Metrolink will also be incredibly well integrated with multiple other forms of transport.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121396898#Comment_121396898

I am far from an expert on such things, but I presume there is a reason almost nowhere in Europe does transport this way?

[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121397136#Comment_121397136

There is no such thing as an accurate cost in Irish construction.

Luas - three times over cost.

National Children's Hospital - at least four times.

M50 upgrade - 3 times.

Micheal Martin has already ADMITTED the extreme end is 23 billion. Therefore 23 billion is the bare minimum.

orangerhyme

Lots of projects come in at predicted cost and timeline.

Luas Cross City for example.

I don't think it'll be built by Irish anyway.

The Copenhagen Metro was done by Italians amongst others.

Strumms

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121397689#Comment_121397689

It’s barely even integrating with itself…. Seeing as only 1 line is going ahead for now. How many stations will integrate / connect with the Luas on the metros completion ? How many stations will integrate / connect to the Dart and or intercity rail on the Metros completion ?

Look at or experience using the metros in Paris, Rome, Lisbon, Madrid, Barcelona and experience, truly world class, comfortable, connected, integrated and fast metro services. They connect you, the passenger. Looks like any connecting for the mess in Dublin will see a lot more effort being done by the passengers as opposed to the service doing it for them.