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Storm Debi : Mon 13th Nov 2023

Meteorite58

Might be worth putting up a storm watch thread at this stage with the ECM now very much showing some seriou winds across Ireland and just over 24 hrs away.

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Well that is a surprise I think seeing the ECM move more towards ARPEGE, a huge shift . A lot unfolding here, if this were to happen like this it could be quite stormy across Ireland as the storm deepens as it makes a quick transit, dont see these often, usually more see the type of strong winds that loose power the further inland but as this looks it could bring those very strong winds sweeping across the country or even increasing inland but I reckon we haven't seen the exact track or strength yet, big changes still from each run.

Currently showing a fast moving and deepening storm move across Ireland early on Mon morning and a difficult one for forecasters, that would be some serious winds just around school drop offs .

As it looks would think it could be a high end Orange at least , very high around Galway/Clare.

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adocholiday

AROME and UKMO 06z are out now too and both are showing the strongest onshore winds in Offaly, Westmeath, Meath and Louth with UKMO about 10-15km/h stronger gusts. ARPEGE looking similar to the GFS just a bit stronger.

Notably, some of the stronger 00z runs have already downgraded in their 06z runs, and the weaker ones have come up (GFS and ICON). At this point I'd say Met Eireann have it bang on average with the 06z rollouts.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121357588#Comment_121357588

Sometimes these quick moving storms, that are not flagged days in advance , can be very potent. I think you are right about the track being nailed on. We could yet see downgrades from the ECM regarding the winds. Although damage could still be done with the water logged ground and some trees still having a fair few leaves on them. Also another big risk factor is trees with weak roots in more urban areas.

An Ri rua

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121357565#Comment_121357565

What strange parts are you referring to? 😁

Met Eireann may be trying to be more granular based on prior data (windspeeds/topography etc).

If they do it by county, we complain. If they get more granular, we complain. I guess they are applying a methodology and doing their best.

[Deleted User]

Really nasting looking area of strong winds for East Galway and Mayo at 5am in the morning according to the UKMO HD. ME has it's work cut out in trying to offer an accurate forecast for this storm.

[Deleted User]

Debi does Half the Country.

sryanbruen

Pointless fact of the day for you.

Debi is the earliest D named storm since naming began in the UK & Ireland in 2015-16.

2015-16 Desmond (Dec 4th)

2016-17 Doris (Feb 23rd)

2017-18 Dylan (Dec 31st)

2018-19 Deirdre (Dec 15th)

2019-20 Dennis (Feb 15th)

2020-21 Darcy (Feb 7th)

2021-22 Dudley (Feb 16th)

2022-23 NA

2023-24 Debi (Nov 12th)

Additionally, red marine warning now for Valentia to Loop Head.

Status Red - Storm warning from Valentia to Loop Head to Slyne Head

Westerly winds will reach violent storm force 11 for a time.

Valid: 02:00 Monday 13/11/2023 to 05:00 Monday 13/11/2023

Issued: 11:25 Sunday 12/11/2023

Oscar Bravo

While the chance is low its been a long time since ive seen 75 knots on a TAF but heres the Shannon TAF and from midnight onwards gives a very rough night with westerly winds potentially gusting 75 knots between 4am and 6am

TEMPO 1300/1306 4000 RA BKN012

PROB30 TEMPO 1300/1306 2000 +RA BKN008

BECMG 1301/1303 17020G35KT

BECMG 1303/1305 27030G55KT

PROB40 TEMPO 1303/1306 25035G65KT

PROB30 TEMPO 1304/1306 26038G75KT

Oscar Bravo

Dublin Airport TAF forecasting gusts up to 68 knots between 6am-8am (30 percent probability) . Nasty rush hour ahead for quite a few

Trebor176

Red warning for the southwest coast

Bridget Clarke

Headline in Tuesdays Sun. DEBI DOES DAMAGE. 😏

Storm 10

Ironic it's called Debi a hurricane with that name destroyed a lot of infacstrue in Galway in 1961 serious flooding as well our house had the roof ripped off boulders as big as cars blocked the promenade in Salthill, road and 4 houses gone in the morning a Bus out in the sea a lovely harbour at Seapoint disappeared it was something else to be there at the time.

Meteorite58

Models certainly aligning more now at this stage as they would want to apart from the GFS that is still lower than the European models .ECM has dialed back the wind speeds a bit but still potential there for very high-end Orange or Red warning levels I would think albeit moving through quickly but they are the most damaging winds from these rapidly developing storms overland and are the most unpredictable. Could be the case that we see a quite narrow swathe of damaging winds in the areas being shown the models. The way the models are now coming together should have a more reliable path and wind speed over the coming hours. Met Eireann though will need to call this I think for around 18.00 to coincide with the news so as to get the word out especially for schools. people will have to listen out in the morning also to see if there are a lot of trees down and premises without power.

modezrpd_20231113_1500_animation (1).gif

downburst

What was a stream and is now a very wide rock exposed river basin due to flooding in the cooley mts. Wonder what it will look like in a few days. There is so much damage up there to roads and bridges. The power oF nature to change what one thinks is permanent.

Widdensushi

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121357888#Comment_121357888

Off the south west coast, marine warning..

Meteorite58

Potential for some very heavy rain to fall in a short period of time.

Storm 10

Is it possible for Debi to go Red for some places sems to be changing by the hour

Hippodrome Song Owl

Working outdoors tomorrow in West Dublin and North Kildare. Not looking forward to it.

adocholiday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121358033#Comment_121358033

Based on the models I would say there's red potential right across the middle of the country. There's still somewhat of a spread but looks more or less like any of the currently orange level counties could see red.

littlema

Meteorite 58, your charts are showing very tight isobars there up over Sligo and yet there's not a dicky bird about our area on any post. Will we get just rain from Debbi?

JCX BXC

Jaysus this has taken me by surprise, have been busy so wasn't keeping an eye on the weather and suddenly there's this big storm coming!

BrianD3

According to sryanbruen's storm table, Mullingar hasn't recorded an orange level gust since the St Stephen's Day storm of 1998. The vast majority of storms since then have not recorded even a yellow level gust. So that's 25 years worth of tree growth and roofs/structures not experiencing what they might be going to experience tomorrow.

Discodog

High tide of 4.9m at 04.48 in Galway. Not good timing.

giveitholly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121358069#Comment_121358069

Yes the farming forecast just now saying warnings could be upgraded

Chicken Run

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121358103#Comment_121358103

coincides with new moon

aidanodr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121357977#Comment_121357977

Yip, was just reading about debbie 1961

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/hurricane-debbie-high-winds-death-and-destruction-in-1961-1.3256985

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121357894#Comment_121357894

Seeing as it’s the uncouth Sun they’d probably go with Debi blows hard. Sorry everyone.

Oscar Bravo

A few calm hours this afternoon to secure anything loose

Storm 10

Question the Red marine warning is showing in Galway bay surely it would give Red gusts to the surrounding areas

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121358070#Comment_121358070

For now Sligo in the Yellow warning level going by the ECM and HARMONIE, being North of the highest winds ye will get the most rainfall, could get in excess of 40mm in a short space of time. Not totally nailed down yet, down to the wire this one but we are now probably seeing the track more or less although these can wobble a bit either way. Wind strength could reach Red warning level across the track of the strongest winds yet, even if it is going through so quickly, very dangerous for commuters/ school children busses etc. Loss of power could be a big issue with this one too.

dsmythy

Add in that heavy rainfall it has to help push a red warning onto Clare and Galway even if winds didn't quite make it.