I think the Forbes article is probably further from the truth. The drone dead zone seems to be entirely made up going off the soldiers accounts.
Both are id say.
Which one is the propaganda version?
Another version.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/16/world/europe/ukraine-kherson-river-russia.html
Doesn't seem like a great use of Ukrainian men.
Indeed, the Kremlin has worked hard over the years to infiltrate Ukraine. Unfortunately there are Ukrainians/Russian sympathisers on the payroll.
It's a multi-year war, I am sure there are tensions and issues. There were plenty of tensions between e.g. allied leaders/commanders during WW2.
Seems to be a bit of tension building with zelensky
Ukr , more than likely, has got a very high concentration of spies and other types to ‘help Putins’’ cause’ in UKr because it borders Ru, has got a lot of rRussian speakers, has got a lot of Russian sympathisers , etc, etc.
There's plenty pro Russians all over Ukraine willing to help Putin. Besides if this was an inside job surely the head of intelligence would find out and take matters into his own hands.
Not a day goes past without the state broadcaster or a Russian politician declaring X country should be invaded, or nuked or Russified
It could have been an attempt on him and got her instead, it's reported he's had at least 10 attempts on his life. Anyone around him is a softer target than the general himself.
Putin has cultivated a large network in Ukraine of many years, recently released info has suggested that Russia has activated agents in the country to destabilize Ukrainian society
"Budanov said in an August interview for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty that his wife Marianna lives with him in his office and that the couple are constantly together for security reasons."
Doesn't sound like she'd be any easier to target than budanov, zelensky etc. So either she got the poison instead of her husband or it was a warning of some sort from within.
She isn't the "top tier of Ukrainian command", she's the wife of a general, a soft target. I suspect many of these people will now be getting extra security.
We don't know who she was poisoned by, but we do know that Putin's regime systematically poisons people both inside Russia and around the world. Many of Russia's operatives in Ukraine have been uncovered, especially since the invasion.
The grenade was a present, which was accidentally set off (it's been common in the Ukr military to send each other mil equipment, bullets, grenades as gifts during the war, something I suspect has been stopped since the aide was killed)
Have the top tiers of Ukrainian command been infiltrated by the Russians or is it a case of zelensky trying to get his own people poisoned?
Between this and the grenade been given to zaluhznys aide, does seem suspicious...
General winters after arriving
could prevent a small window to take out the kerch bridge if a.d systems are after getting destroyed/moved to safety
Okay.
US might deliver (they are repackaging aid with Israel/Taiwan, we'll see if it passes). It's still a year away from the election. Still plenty of support from Europe and as mentioned Ukraine is really boosting it's own war-time production.
Perhaps it stays as it is. Or perhaps Ukraine continues to chip away at the Russian military, which is constantly showing new cracks.
The US won't be "starting anything up", it's up to Ukraine what they do. They are more aware than anyone of the costs.
Ukraine held more ground at the start of this year than they do now. Their position does not look any stronger. Apart from a small area around robotyne, their gains were minimal. Nothing of any great strategic value.
Russia has surely been laying more mines, making more fortifications since last winter. No great changes are coming as they have little chance of big breakthroughs through fortified areas under constant drone surveillance.
The USSR was, not Russia. There was Ukrainians fighting there also
They pushed a heap of NATO countries out also.
They gained territory with this counter offensive and that was without air cover (and they only had 15% of pledged mine clearing equipment), they had issues with Russian helicopters (which have now had to move back due to ATACMS). As mentioned they've only lost around 10% of foreign supplied equipment with the big counter offensive. With more equipment arriving, and producing their own, and having better mine-clearing equipment - and with the knowledge they had now, it's possible they could gain more ground in another offensive.
They hyped up the counter-offensive for morale/tactical reasons. Some observers bought into it literally.
Indeed, they've had to recruit older men, and there have been cases where some troops haven't been fully trained. However the problem is much more severe on the Russian side (prisoners, human wave attacks, shooting their own retreating troops, etc)
Talks prior to the counter-offensive would have been from a position of less territory, and would just been used by Putin to stall while rearming, rotate troops and preparing further attacks.
Ukraine had to make the push, they have gained some territory (obviously not as much as hoped) and will likely attempt more offensives.
It's not a war that Ukraine are suddenly going to "win". It's a grind. If they do go to the table, they want to go with the best position possible, i.e. as much territory as they can regain, and with the Russian military in it's weakest position possible.
I just don't see it happening. Both sides are after getting good at defending what they have and in the end Russia have more men and are happy to use them. The bombing behind the lines won't change anything.
American interests are somewhere else right now and I can't see them coming to the rescue with loads of new gear for next year. Everything Ukraine has gotten already must be well worn out at this stage. If everything quietens down over the winter on the front line why would the US look to start it up again.
Ukraine don't seem to have the power left to drive offensives. While Russia despite all their losses are still driving on with large attacks regardless, record amount of glide bombs being dropped, drone numbers increasing.
All the reports last winter were hyping up the growing strength of Ukrainian forces for the great counteroffensives ahead. Now your much more likely to read about a lack of men and forces that are doing well just to hold their own.
Ukraine have been also recruiting men past their prime and sending them to fight with little to no training.
Ukraine's choices are looking increasingly bleak. Doesn't look like they'll be able to force things so they enter talks with Russia in a position of strength. If they don't achieve that the past year was wasted.
F16s and more long range missiles aren't going to change things drastically.
The Russians were pushed out of Afghanistan after a decade, why won’t the same happen here? Know it’s different territory but the Ukrainians will have much more advanced weapons and intelligence compared to the afghans. The Russians haven’t made great leaps forward in technology since then.
I've heard "X won't happen" so many times in this conflict, then it happens.
Russia won't be pushed out of the country at this stage
Possibly, but Russia might lose more occupied territory. Remember it's not just up to Ukraine to push forward, Russia can also fail. They are recruiting 40 yr old men, giving them a few days training and throwing them at the front line. So far quantity has just about worked, so far.
Yes Ukraine are hitting them behind the front lines but what good is it going to do when Russia starts hammering their power supplies for the winter again.
Possibly, but Ukraine has been hardening their power and energy infrastructure for months now in preparation, e.g. encasing transformers in concrete. That wasn't the case last time. As mentioned Ukraine are also in development of assets that could potentially hit back at Russian energy infrastructure. Again, Russia can do damage to Ukrainian infrastructure, but this time the Ukrainians are expecting it, we will see how it unfolds.
IF Russia do target infrastructure this winter, I expect them to use mass launches, to overwhelm air defenses - if this does happen, I would not be surprised to see Ukraine respond in kind (something they haven't done yet)
Ukraine lost huge numbers this summer and all for nothing.
It wasn't for nothing, they gained ground and have seriously impacted the Russian military, especially through attrition. They have also been able to move their long range missiles closer to key supply routes on the South and in Crimea.
And Russia have lost many more to hold less land than they started with 18 months ago
Their main aim was to take back the land but it's not going to happen now, Russia won't be pushed out of the country at this stage. Yes Ukraine are hitting them behind the front lines but what good is it going to do when Russia starts hammering their power supplies for the winter again. Ukraine lost huge numbers this summer and all for nothing. They'll be doing well if they can keep the Russians where they are going forward.
This isn't solely about taking back land. Ukraine have openly said they are trying to destroy as much of Russia's war machine and ability to re-invade. The Russians have recently had to move their helicopters right back to get out of range. Ukrainian strikes have damaged/destroyed weapons platforms, e.g. recently a new warship that was capable of launching Kalibr missiles. Crimea is becoming a massive headache for Russia. The Ukrainians are developing many types of drones, among them their own version of the Shahed - this is so that if Russia strikes at Ukraine's energy infrastructure, Ukraine can, in future, respond in kind.
The Ukrainians are more aware than anyone of the cost of doing this vs the cost of not doing it.
Ukraine will be receiving F16's in the coming months, a lot of equipment in the next year, and plants/facilities/drone production should seriously ramp up, they may or may not regain land, but they are constantly degrading Russia's ability to launch renewed attacks or offensives (e.g. recently, Avdiivka where Russians took staggering losses).
If I had to guess, I'd say they will see how the situation evolves this winter, and how much equipment they can prepare for the early spring.
Well I can't see why there are between 5/800 coming here every week at this stage. While we give them permission to go home for Christmas and come back again
They might have to get rid of zelensky. He seems set on their current course
