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Storm Ciaran :Associated weather effects, primarily flooding risks, Advisory 29th -02 Nov 2023

Robwindstorm

I think this could be dangerous for South and Eastern parts of Ireland due to low pressure, onshore winds and torrential rain on already saturated ground and high level rivers. We appear to be avoiding the strongest winds but the northern flank of this storm is bad news for Cork and Wexford at least.

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Mod Note: Please stay on topic. There are other threads for various discussions on Climate, Met Eireann, General discussion etc. Please adhere to the forum charter. This is primarily a discussion about the science of Meteorology in relation to the adverse weather condition's over the coming days associated with Storm Ciaran. Off topic posts will be deleted.

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Hairypoppins

Latest UK met vid on you tube has a little rain just clipping the south coast for an hr or 2 then that's it ,it spirals away into nw France/ S England and Wales ,I'm happy with this outcome

Robwindstorm

I love the ferocity and development of these windstorms, I don't know why it fascinates me, but after all this rain the thoughts of the northern flank of this storm pounding us with rain does not appeal to me. I think we all need to have a break from these deluges and have a few weeks of dry crisp weather no matter how benign and boring it may be followed by a nice little fall of snow for Christmas . Then maybe a storm or two in January, says he drinking whiskey to try and kill off a flu before bedtime.

Foggy Jew

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121308442#Comment_121308442

Gazuntite. Clearly spelt this wrong, but u get the picture.

pauldry

The storm centre comes up from the Southwest and passes over Plymouth. It doesn't impact this country bar an hour or two of rain. There might also be some other periods of rain associated with the back end but nothing much above 20mm probably.

This storm belongs to England and France.

Went to Brighton in Summer and one of their piers that burned in an arson attack still stands on the beach but any strong storm could topple the rest of it. Will this be that storm?

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121308576#Comment_121308576

I'd say and god forgive me for saying this but deaths are likely especially very southern England and North France I mean 950mb is not to be messed about I think ophelia was 960mb or something but I know that hit the 9am mark instead of this storm hitting the night

An Ri rua

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121303954#Comment_121303954

When God sneezes, Cork sharts...

M.T. Cranium

Storm Ciarán as you've been discussing as been on a gradual southward shift that continues into the 00z model run. It is accelerating now in mid-Atlantic Ocean, will be close to 48N 20W before noon and on towards a rapid intensification south of Ireland around 21z to 03z. Channel Islands, northern France and southeast England are all going to see locally damaging wind gusts to 160 km km/hr and southwest England could also see isolated damage in the wrap-around from west to northwest winds of about 80-120 km/hr. I am watching closely but it looks to be a moderate impact event at worst for Cork to Wexford. I suppose no rain at all would be ideal but it looks like 15-30 mm type rainfalls, followed by 10-15 mm around Saturday morning. That should be generally manageable, let's hope it is the case.

.Donegal.

No surprise to see 3 French departments with a red wind warning. Looks a proper storm.

[Deleted User]

Blue skies in Tralee.

giveitholly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121309042#Comment_121309042

dark grey clouds outside limerick with heavy rain

Cluedo Monopoly

Breezy in Galway now. Not so much rain yet but the leaves are coming down fast now.

adocholiday

My garden in Wicklow has turned into a sea of brown leaves overnight. Got a bit breezy here and my two 150-year old beeches shed half their canopies! Windy here again now for the next 3-4 hours so I'm sure I'll be out with the leaf blower this weekend.

Edit: Sorry thought this was the general chat thread. On topic of the storm, the models are all fairly aligned now in terms of rainfall, with the ECM trending slightly wetter than the rest. The ICON 06z is out so will post that for reference but more or less they're all showing this picture now

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121309198#Comment_121309198

It's far from leaf blowers you were reared. Wind is my leaf blower! 🙂

seanin4711

biblical in east Galway,

never get a red warning.

Gov miss the revenue too much,cant shut down the economy

adocholiday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121309221#Comment_121309221

Do you think a red warning should have been issued for Galway? If so it wouldn't be warranted. That heavy band of rain should clear off soon enough and at Athenry for example there was around 10mm total in the last 24 hours, current mean wind speeds around 20km/h and gusts inland around the 60-70km/h range all forecast to ease around lunchtime. Highest gust at Mace Head was 107km/h, within the yellow parameters.

Storm 10

Galway is a sea of brown leaves flying in all directions still raining, my station recording gusts of 40mph for a time this morning still windy there will be some clean up required .

adocholiday

GFS 06z shifts it slightly north, increasing the rain potential. No wind impact with that move, but more areas seeing rain and more of it falling. UKMO 06z has a slightly northward shift also, but doesn't forecast the same rain potential. ICON more keeping in line with its 00z run. We're only maybe 8 hours away from it being off our SW but still some uncertainty to the track it seems.

Comparison with the 00z

pauldry

About a 10 percent chance now of this storm having any serious effect here. Yellow warning maybe for high tides in the South but late next week there may be a more Northerly tracked storm though that could miss us to the North. A more bendy and volatile jetstream means that a lot of these storms are not hitting us as much as they used to because the traditional path along the Gulf Stream is no longer the only path.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121309221#Comment_121309221

cant imagine government departments have much involvement in met eireanns alert decisions!

monkeybutter

@Flesh n Blood will it rain in cork tomorrow? no one seems to know

Storm 10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121310043#Comment_121310043

Look at the yellow rain warnings on the ME site for Cork today and tomorrow

monkeybutter

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121310144#Comment_121310144

yeah it looks like tonight is going to be bad with not much tomorrow

squonk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121310043#Comment_121310043

Cork will cease to exist after 2AM, replaced by the increased sea height after all the rain. On the plus side, Limerick will be delighted with having a real coastline however business in Kilkee will slump considerably as a result.

venusdoom

Wicked here in South West Donegal. Two trees down in my garden. Worst I've seen in years, out of all the predicted storms.

[Deleted User]

Why is this hitting the north west while Tralee has blue skies?

adocholiday

Starting to take shape rapidly now on the satellite view, SW of Ireland

Speak Now

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121310379#Comment_121310379

Different system

redsteveireland

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121309417#Comment_121309417

The little shifts North are bringing more of the south east of England into the mix, will be interesting to watch as I have a sister living in Kent.

bazlers

Looking slightly more north west to me...

Cornwall will get a major hit.

Alun

I see from the BBC news that the Channel Islands are pretty worried and are making preparations. All coastal roads are to be closed as is the airport. Scilly Isles likewise probably.