The entire Rugby world (not Ireland) will break their collectively holes laughing if we lose on Saturday.
Best in the World for a year? ✅
Win the Grand Slam? ✅
About to equal the record winning streak? ✅
First time in a semi final? ✅
Toppled the reigning champs? ✅
Pull Scotland's pants down? ✅
World Cup Semi Final ❌
If it wasn't a curse before this weekend - it will be afterwards. It will spawn a lasting legacy of jokes, jibes and sneers that we as a country need to endure, for the sheer hilarity and enjoyment it will bring to literally everyone else (particularly the Welsh).
Within an hour of the final the tweets and whatsapps will be flying. This will be no celebrity death, there will be no grace period, no warm up - no foreplay. "Knock Knock" "Who's there" "NOT A FCUKING SEMI FINAL DICK HEAD".
The definition of insanity will officially be re-categorised to thinking Ireland can win a quarter final. The Kiwi headline writers will have the time of their lives... "Irish fans were seeing zombies, all blacks just saw a bunch of dead men walking"... the list goes on.
We know it's coming. We know it's going to be awful. The jokes will be really, really funny but we'll never quite get to enjoy them as we will be the butt of them.
So suck it up folks. This is it. Not only do our hopes and dreams get shattered - but we gift the rest of the world a joke, that started the whole world...
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Crying shame if we went out though. Because whilst the above is true - there is also an AMAZING good news story brewing.
The record run starting with the All Blacks and equalling it with the win would be serendipitous. It would be an affirmation of all that this team has become because it wouldn't be a surprise. I said it on here a few weeks ago that if you went back to 2018, the nightmare scenario was facing a Joe Schmidt coached New Zealand in a World Cup knockout game.
I can't get my head around how this has come to pass and yet I'm not all that concerned about this game.
We've built well into the tournament, respected the fixtures and played entertaining rugby throughout. We've been really good value for the most part this tournament and the travelling support have become a story in and of themselves.
It goes beyond that though. We talk about Ireland's failures in World Cups but we really only talk about the last few, as you don't go far back before Ireland were hamstrung by an amateur and undeveloped game domestically. A lot of the teams that headed home over the last week are in a similar place with their domestic game as we were not 20 years ago. If Ireland win the World cup, it's not the worst advertisement for the game as things stand.
And then there is the Sexton factor. Every game is his last game and yet of any of the players interviewed regularly this tournament he is remarkably calm and clear. It's something you see across the squad, they've confidence in their game and their ability to repeatedly perform and that's very hard to play against.
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And then there is the All Blacks.
How do you write about the All Blacks now as an Ireland supporter. It was on some podcast or other I listened to recently about the game that relationships between the players and their requisite supporters towards each other had re calibrated. I think this is abundantly clear since the series win last Summer but that really only emphasised a trend that had been materialising for some time. The All Blacks really are starting to struggle a bit with Ireland. Ten years ago I knew, I just knew they were somehow going to find a way to win that game at the death. I had barely begun to begin to dream and somehow found a score. They had always found a way to beat us and it seemed always would.
It's amazing how much things have moved on since then, but to me that game was a catalyst for so much that Ireland have gone on to do. It was genuinely one of our best ever performances and it was just after Joe took over.
Chicago was never a big deal to me. I celebrated and enjoyed it, but I felt it was half a win over the All Blacks and not a full win. This was in part down to the novelty factor of the location - but also because of the humbling the following week. We played well but couldn't match them. We still weren't there.
We were the best we ever were under Joe in 2018 and that was the performance that for me suggested we could match the All Blacks. That was the start of the trend for me. Since then, when on form - we've generally beaten New Zealand. We lost the last quarter but that game was over before it started for anyone that had been paying attention. We were never in that tournament in a meaningful way.
But all the other wins have been games where we at times were within ourselves. We've gone so far at times as to look almost dominant against the All Blacks.
But then there is the first game last Summer in Eden Park. 42 : 19. We rallied, played our best rugby and won the series - but we only got the next two games because the first one wasn't a knock out. That worries me about this game. That's the nightmare scenario. "Why did the Irish fan cross the road ... not to go to a semi final".
And this is compounded by the fact that over the last year the All Blacks are the one team that do score more tries against us.
We've gotten very good at neutralising their kicking game and whilst their back three are better athletes I think we've the edge in terms of both tactical kicking and pressure relief kicking. Where they excel is the attacking kick chase, and whilst it's been effective against us - we've really flustered them with bombs onto their 22 the last couple of clashes also. The quality of their kick chase can lead to a break away score, but our variation between contesting in the air or getting numbers forward for a turnover causes them all kinds of problems.
We won't smother New Zealand like we did Scotland, they'll have more purple patches, they'll do more with them. But we have SO many turnover threats on the pitch, the likes of Schmidt is going to be very reluctant to see any player in isolation - and I wonder what impact that will have on their attack?
Otherwise you've two organised defences with Ireland's being the more organised and more abrasive. You've two good attacking teams with plenty of set piece plays but again Ireland with an edge given our ability to execute plays even deep into phases.
Not much between the set pieces unless our lineout struggles again. Seems to have turned a corner so am optimistic.
Teams
Few notables from the team sheet. The absence of Telea isn't a huge blow but does it suggest anything about the All Black camp? Ryan missing for Ireland is mitigated by Hendersons return to top form, but Ryan has had big games against the All Blacks before so still a disappointment he isn't available.
That All Black bench isn't not what it used to be at all.
Conclusion
We can't win this game. It would be taking too much joy from the world.
But if we were to win, I think we might end up doing a number on the All Blacks.
My heart still wants to say New Zealand. I'm so conditioned by disappointment against them that I still can't enjoy the fixture, but ultimately my head says Ireland and I think my head is right. New Zealand looked very vulnerable before the tournament and weren't able to mount a fight back against France. They've been on easy street for close to a month whereas Ireland are coming in fully match conditioned.
New Zealand are in a funny place. They've everything to play for and yet they just aren't firing consistently. It's hard to gauge their form but ultimately a team is winning or it's not and the All blacks have had some losses of late that would have rocked my confidence were it Ireland.
So Ireland will go hard from the outset tomorrow. Johnny Sexton will play like it's his last game and honestly I think we are going to see something special from this group. Again. I'm reminded of the ending of the movie Kingdom of Heaven. When asked what Jerusalem is worth, Saladin says ''Nothing". "Everything".
A win tomorrow means nothing. It's the first of three finals and we get no reward. But a win tomorrow also means everything. It changes the game in this country and I think it puts us into a World Cup final.
And it means we don't have to listen to YEARS of BS. Honestly if they don't win I'm going to be pissed.
Too tired to proof read will do tomorrow.
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