Taking Tokmak would have been the ideal of course, but next best thing is that its well within Ukraine artillery range now, and its a very important logistics link for the Russians. So once they can hammer away at it, that will do the job for now.
China's best weapons are it's hypersonic anti ship Missles and it has numerical advantage in men , air and ships and other weapons,
In various war games scenarios the US loses its surface fleet and aircraft in the first 5 days of a real war , besides China has the ability to hit Taiwan from its mainland and don't have to Risk men and equipment
Indeed, another one to watch out for.
Also China would also not repeat any of the Russian mistakes, any analysis I've come across shows that China have overwhelming advantages in taking the island. The hit on the economy would be insane, the economic cost would be extreme - possibly something that would hold China back.
Not the easiest task for China attacking an Island which has massive amount of modern western antiship armaments'
Especially when you have a fledging navy designed on Russian designs
Those same Russian navy designs have just been destroyed by a country without a navy
Its not going to happen, China will flex its muscle, but at the end of the day its very difficult for them to get boots on ground
They can bomb Taiwan but still they need boots on the ground
I just dont see it happening
USA will blockade China's trade routes crippling them overnight if they start it with Taiwan
Yeah be interesting with Taiwan. I just don't know if Chinese patience has run out yet on that situation. But to be fair it would of been perfect timing. China might need the world's attention a bit more distracted again with another conflict or 2 happening now. More if Kosovo kicked off more and if there is a wider conflict with Israel iran etc. then they might make a move.
They will have initial supplies that won't last very long when the proper shooting begins, Israel will use a serious amount of artillery in the coming weeks and months,this will have a knock on effect on global supplies the Israelis will be giving priority when they ring up and say the hundreds millions to spend on orders,
They won't be needing much air 2 air missles and helicopters they last time I checked had over 20,000 JDAM bombs, Ukraine were given a handful like everything else ,dribs and drabs
There's two seperate things going on here that aren't at all related.
Currently Ukraine are not near Tokmak that much is true. The territorial gains have been modest because Russians have not been playing defense in depth but rather counter attacking every inch of territory lost like madmen and taking horrible casualties. Even on the offense Ukraine have been losing 3 times less equipment(and possibly men, I'm just extrapolating here I don't have evidence for this. ) confirmed by Oryx. Which is honestly staggering.
But the whole political fiasco in congress has not affected what's left in assignable aid. Only that new aid packages will likely not be announced for the coming month.
There's still 6 billion worth of aid left to go to ukraine. It's not like the weapons deliveries are just stopping because congress is a shitshow for a few weeks. Even in a government shutdown the military and other government institutions are still mandated to work. Taking into account that much of the equipment that has been promised still hasn't arrived it seems more like weather or the fact that Russia has deployed their more experienced VDV reserves to the Robotyne front has been slowing things down more.
https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-ministry-thousands-of-russian-airborne-troops-redeployed-to-robotyne-as-infantry/
Finnish government statement at 5.30 Finnish time, 3.30 Irish
But already fingers are being pointed at Russia, one of there survey ships wer seen over it mid September
Finland and Sweden monitor seismic occurrence's constantly and don't see any data leading to an explosion, but this press conference has already been delayed 3 hours so looks like something is suspicious
Surely Isreal would have enough missiles , etc, for the short term at least without having to supplement with immediate imports - re planes , helicopters , all kinds of bombs/ missiles , mines, all types of personnel vehicles,tanks, etc. Hamas , no matter how ‘well armed ‘ it is would not have the capability of taking out a lot of the Israeli hardware IMO
Ukraine are nowhere near taking Tokmak. Before the US shutdown they might have had a small chance of getting it under fire control this year but that is likely gone up in smoke.
Given the change in daily reports it is likely that Ukraine is shifting to a more defensive stance and will just use their ammo to try and hold the small gains they have made.
Wapo suggesting that certain Ukraine funding may be tied in with a bill for Israel funding. Hope it goes through.
Interesting that's kinda gone under the radar.
If it was Russia, I very much doubt there would be any repercussions anyway.
They were spot on estimating the Russian dead and injured because it was confirmed by the Dumas own internal documents regarding compensation for the soldiers and families
Great work, respect.
Ukrainian army, in all fairness, has been known to inflate numbers quite a bit as well and make claims that are later revised.
The fringe can't stop contradicting themselves
@amandstu "You know "Google is your friend" is normally a put down."
Not intended as that at all. Just trying to help.😉
Hopefully they will. These kind of activities while appearing small, really hurt Russian's and make everyday life harder for them.
Incredible stuff
Wonder if any of the other Auto makers will follow suit looking at the Vag group
Meanwhile bad news for Russian Volvo lovers (and that would include heavy transport too I presume!) Volvo have cut off all electronic supports / up grades to their vehicles in Russia.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1711681273956048919/photo/1
Thanks .You know "Google is your friend" is normally a put down.
As it happens I did google that 1945 period last night (since nobody had answered my questions )as my acquaintance with the story only really began from 56 on w
I am now better informed as to the events but it can also be instructive to ask for information on discussion forums -they are two different ways of acquiring knowledge.
I won't go on -this is the wrong thread.
Google is your friend - Milestones: 1945–1952 - Office of the Historian (state.gov)
If there is a perfect time it's soon for sure. If they decide to go for it maybe they will sit back and escalate this situation to the maximum first.
This was always going to happen unfortunately I've been saying it from the start if something kicks off elsewhere choices will have to be made ,all we need now so China to start hitting Taiwan , you won't be hearing much about blocking military aid to Israel ,the total opposite to what we've seen with Ukraine
I wonder if they are taking advantage of the US's attention being directed to Isreal to move as much as possible over to Russia?
The rail-bridge between NK and Russia is a very old Soviet build, and it's the only one. Although it is heavily defended and guarded constantly by the North Koreans, I wonder if there has been any temptation to take it out of commision? They'd still be able to transfer via China, but the facade of Beijing not being a military supporter would then be much harder to maintain (not that they were doing a good job of that to begin with).
US is annexed by IL
'Dramatic' increase in N. Korea-Russia border rail traffic: U.S. monitor"
https://m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20231007000300315
I understand Hamas has been having meetings with the Russians. I suspect that they and Iran were involved. Good play by the Russians - if what I suspect is true - to get the West distracted from their crimes in Ukraine.
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