Does this look bad this far out?
Cork airport TAF have forecast gusts up to 60 knots from the south around lunchtime. Thats fairly rough
TEMPO 2711/2713 17032G60KT
I hate when these threads get to the point that a death toll is predicted and almost wished for in order to prove a point (e.g. MetE are crap, Warning system is crap, people/schools are stupid etc). I'd much prefer to just anticipate and experience the weather event. Roll on Agnes. Stay safe Ireland.
Not sure if it's a change of mind or just concern that some coastal areas could get quite badly hit even if orange verifies for most of the population, after all not that many people live on exposed coastlines for a good reason. So for city of Cork orange level warnings will likely be good, not so sure about Kinsale or other fully exposed locations. We have the luxury here of speculating about parts of counties in different levels of warnings, but my understanding is, if any part of a county is expected to "see red" then the warning for the county is red, I guess this is fudged to some extent for outer coastal fringes, but it only takes one gust to invalidate a forecast especially if that gust brings down a large tree or does structural damage. Also we need to be conveying the idea that airport weather stations are not always going to catch the strongest gusts in a storm, an embedded cell in a squall line could go between two stations and do more damage than the post-storm data might lead a person to expect. ... I agree with your comments in general, by the way.
I think the Southeast and East will added to the orange wind warning in the coming hours.
That's cause it doesn't affect the Dublin area.
That's a lovely looking spot for a sit down or play football with a child etc.
Yes but with it falling under the radar with the media they will be unaware of any dangers. It wasn't even on the headlines with the.
Allmost all primary schools will have preschool classes that would start and finish around midday and junior and senior infants will be finishing around 2
If they forecasted a orange thundershower warning and you cancelled your sports day and you didn't have a thunderstorm. Would you be giving out?
Weather is unpredictable and thunderstorms can bubble up without warning over the course of a few hours?
Good stuff from the master yet again
No Sailing Wed😎
Schools can make that calls on a local when under a orange warning for wind.
Have set up a timelpase for tomorrow here near Tralee , a before and after 😀 will see if branches or trees are knocked over.
West gone Yellow now could see this change as the wind backs to the West later in the day
secondary schools usually finish around one on a Wednesday
Would you believe most secondary schools get a half day on Wednesday. Primary tend to close every 2 to 3. So worst case scenario tomorrow for all schools in Southwest
The storm centre is tracking right over Ireland, we will be impacted more than the U.K. Also it arrives here first, not after the U.K., yet they were out with the warnings earlier.
Met Eireann have form with this in the last number of months and it’s going to cause someone’s life to be lost unnecessarily if they continue this practice of late warnings, or warnings after the fact or refusing to name a storm that’s more impactful than forecast.
For example, last June we planned a sports day for a primary school. The weather forecast at the time was warm with a chance of some showers. No mention of thunder. Our whole school was over on the pitch when this black cloud appeared and a severe thunder and lightning storm occurred. The pitch got struck by lightning and we’d to run for cover in a clubhouse urgently with over 200+ children. Checked met eireann, orange thunderstorm warning issued as we got inside. That’s not what a forecasting service should do, they are supposed to at least give warning to the possibility of this occurring. This is one example of many lately where they issue a late orange, a quick orange warning either during or after the fact to cover themselves. Some people have to be out in the weather and this isn’t good enough IMO.
Do your schools have any half-day programs or are the kids all in school from say 0800 to 1500? Asking because the most dangerous time to be out walking or driving is likely to be around that noon time end or start of half day. For Cork and Limerick, would suppose an early drop off or walk and a late pick up or walk might be safer than conditions to be expected late morning to early afternoon. Would not be the day to let kids out early. Perhaps you don't have those sorts of programs, we do for youngest kids attending for half days and also so e of our schools are on two sets of start and end times.
Schools would not be a problem if the modern ones were not so badly built
I would not like to see a true red situation hitting any of them with children inside
I just mowed my lawn. So it got a trim and will get a wash and blow tomorrow ☺️
Will weather can be change anytime if go orange or red for west of Ireland or stay yellow as normal
It's almost 7pm, so I'd imagine at this stage schools are staying open. As far as I recall around 7 or 8pm would usually be around the latest that the call is made.
Also be interested to see your data, being near Rathdrum myself about 13km from the coast it will be interesting to see how wild it gets. I'm at an elevation of 60m though which is one of the lowest points in the area. Rathdrum itself is about 140m so depending on wind direction we can sometimes escape the worst of it, or it gets funneled our way and makes it feel worse.
Met Eireann have this Map which is quite accurate except I can see there being winds in excess of 90kph in the West and North so should be yellow here too.
The only way of schools closing really is if they upgrade to red. What I would do is issue a red for the South from say 11am to 3pm. This would be enough to close schools and let work carry on maybe. Otherwise Met Eireann should contact the dept of education to ask for schools to close due to timing of storm etc
I'm expecting an interesting day at my south wicklow location being on a small bit of headland totally exposed to the south and Southeast
The sea is 2kms due south and 2kms due east
We are also very exposed to the SW
I've a 10m wind pole attached to the Davis so will see what happens and post here,I am expecting gusts to go about 100kmh frequently for a while,we'll see
Hook Head is looking interesting tomorrow. It might be a red area for the wexford without making the county red itself.
I see you've changed your mind MT. Calling for red now for the Southwest. I think the timing of this, and trees full of leaf will cause lots of problems getting kids home from school etc. Country roads in Cork/Kerry will almost certainly get blocked midday to 6pm. Wind orange but impacts will be red. There should really be a case for closing schools but work goes on...
For wind warnings would suggest red Kerry, Cork, Waterford (although verifying as orange inland), then orange Limerick, Tipps, Kilkenny, Carlow, Wexford, Wicklow, and yellow rest of country. A few areas of orange no doubt verifying in coastal Dublin, exposed portions of Kildare and Laois so could add those, even Clare on backside of circulation in a few spots. But large part of population as always in yellow even if portions of land in orange.
Peak gusts 130 or even 140 km/hr in south Kerry and possibly southwest Cork (160 Fastnet I suppose), 120-130 as far east as about Tramore. Closer to 110-120 around southeast coast and up towards Dublin. Storm looks almost identical on GFS and Arpege now, peaks around 10-11 o'clock approaching Kerry.
Rainfall warnings probably okay as is, could verify red in south Kerry and southwest Cork however. Kerry and west Cork need to be on high alert, would not recommend road travel in west munster from about 0700h to at least 1300h or time past a reasonable clean-up of fallen trees and local washouts from runoff likely coming out of higher terrain for several hours.
Expect perhaps a double peak wind structure in parts of east, initial southeast blast late morning to 1 pm, afternoon lull as low begins to weaken, secondary peak as circulation tightens with closer approach of low later afternoon and better directionality inland for wind speeds. Will predict highest gusts to be around 95-105 for Dublin area, 80-90 Galway (100 at mace head), 60-80 well inland. Pulse cycle favours coastal overperformer and inland underperformer.
Cork Airport expecting gusts up to 60kts from 12pm-2pm, that's 111km/h.
I am making alot of statements but it's only what I can see on models , weather has been a huge interest to me since I've been 6 years old ( huge part of it is because i have autism so strong interest are common) and still 20 years on its still a major interest, sorry if I annoyed ya
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