A contrarian thinks NATO countries, including the US, will start running out of equipment before russia who are losing equipment hand over fist daily and are resorting to WW2 era equipment.🤣 The delusion is strong.
NATO countries do not have an infinite supply of equipment and munitions,you might not agree but these are well documented facts ,the big donations of tanks, IFVs and other equipment will slow down to a trickle because NATO can't give what if doesn't already have
Meanwhile Russia goes begging for arms in North Korea, but that's a sign their weapons stocks are definitely not running out.
The yanks have thousands of vehicles in storage that they don't won't and never will use again .....even in the really slim chance that they have a land invasion. These vehicles will be sold into Ukraine one way or another . ......I do think that the us is holding off slightly in a way to shove european countries into properly upping its ability to rearm and defend itself.
It's a matter mostly of Congress. The GOP has 50 seats in the Senate and the majority in the House. The Republican caucus is not in agreement in funding Ukraine, and the MAGA wing would actually prefer to see Zelensky fail ('he's a nazi, he's corrupt, he wouldn't sham-investigate biden,' etc). It's ultimately up to moderate Republicans how much support the US can give.
And all these years I thought it was North of Spain and South of Belgique
So,
1. US supplies to UAF will not be affected by potential US shutdown.
2. Poland and Ukraine appear to be rowing back and looks like missile supplies will continue (makes sense)
3. Abram tanks are reportedly on route and arrive next week.
The US have their supplies and stocks NATO and the EU not so much,but if your not defence industry has been whittled down to a handful of companies who only make to order rather than mass producing tens of thousands of military vehicles and various weapons systems, NATO countries will increase spending but with Russia no longer a threat to NATO that will see less spending on massive amounts of equipment and money on smarter and smaller systems ,
The best weapon system given to Ukraine is the Himars launchers,but they only received a handful of them, Poland Rocked up and ordered 480 launchers and several hundred other systems from south Korea,and 800 + modem tanks and hundreds of modem ifv for themselves,
20 Himars and a Similar number of other systems won't be enough to defeat Russia,but nobody in Europe is producing large numbers of similar systems so it's really down to America to supply the biggest amount of equipment something they have shown that they are not willing to do for whatever reason,
It just has to do enough to hold most of what it has. Stalemate is a victory. Even if it comes at a million dead Red Army men and the Russian economy behind Pakistan.
Europe has been winding down its armies for years, only a few in Eastern Europe are taking it serious.
They remember the brutal days of being a Soviet Socialist Republic, how many European States will hit the 2% for NATO spending, nearly SFA.
Yes Russia has a desire to churn out equipment, shells,tanks etc.
The West does not.
It's down to will. If Europe wanted the war would already be over or at the least Ukraine would be set up to be a juggernaut next year against the reds.
There is zero chance of a Ukrainian defeat now but there certainly is a sizeable chance that Russia keeps a lot of what it has taken and that chance grows the longer it goes on.
As Zelensky has pointed out again and again, that isn't a problem for a lot of the leading powers in Western Europe.
I believe it's Only a few Abrams arriving this month not the full 30 promised
Not sure what your point is here, there is no mention of numbers in the post.
Only a few Abrams tanks are arriving this month,
I think the point is NATO is the USA. Your point is correct though the Europeans should be contributing more or at least buying this vast stock the US has.
Shell munition supply to Ukraine is growing exponentially, Sweden will be jointly producing IFVs with Ukraine, Rheinmetall is setting up a complex in Ukraine. Military spending across Europe is rising dramatically. It's not just all about existing stock.
Ukraine doesn't have to "defeat" Russia, it just has to aid the Russian invasion force in defeating itself, through attrition. Not a simple task but not entirely impossible either. The signs are growing - Ru military having to field prisoners, use ageing equipment, rely on Iranian drones, using vehicle borne IEDs and asking the North Koreans for ammunition. Russia still has quantity, and production ability, and poor 50 yr untrained men who will sit in trenches for low pay - but I wonder how long for. There's a clock running for Russia also.
Rheinmetall is setting up a complex in Ukraine announced during the summer it's mainly going to be repairing vehicles donated by Germany but it's being funded by several other nations,so it's cheaper and easier then sending them back to Germany which could take months to turn around,it makes sense setting up in Ukraine, there's only a handful of companies who make artillery shells in Europe and the US and it will be something like 2028 before they reach the capacity needed that's another 4 years down the road ,the same with deal to produce the 1500 +cv90s it's taken 30 years to Produce that many so we won't be seeing 1500+ cv90s built in Ukraine fighting in Ukraine in the short to medium term at all ,
Both sides are being grinded down Ukraine themselves have had to lower their requirements for military conscription to include people suffering from medical and mental health problems as long as they believe it's curable, and recently talks of seeking extradition of individuals they believe have dodged conscription by fleeing to EU states.
F35 arrives in Finland
Two arrived in Denmark last week
Putin Economics
Does the west have the will is the real question. Without that it certainly won't produce/release the equipment.
Up until now the answer is a 100% no.
In my opinion the poor performance of the Russian army in Ukraine has actually lowered the level of urgency to ramp up defence spending in western countries particularly on the western side of Europe. If the Russians were rampaging through western Ukraine and approaching the borders of Romania and Moldova etc the level of urgency would be many times different. The static front lines and pathetic offensive ability of the Russian army is paradoxically working in their favour as regards many people and countries seeing them as an existential threat, which they still very much are. And their more hybrid operations are yielding far better results than their military ones. And very few people can see that or make the connections which makes it a very dangerous situation.
If the West starts sending the proper weapons and systems this will be over soon enough. It is letting Ukraine fight with one hand tied behind their back. The US is happy enough with this. It is witnessing the collapse of the Russian army without loosing a single man.
I think our own Government should be pressured into giving funding for weapons to the Ukraine. It’s an embarrassment that we don’t.
It does seem to be strategy to drag the war out …
Absolutely. Especially cruel on Ukraine unfortunately.
I think you're confusing lethargy and strategy here...
Only halfway joking, it seems to me that even some of the more hawkish countries out there are unwilling to part with their pre-war approach to international crises, that is, taking things slow and deliberately with the least possible impact on their nation's populace.
On defence spending the 4 biggest spenders in Europe last and this year is Germany, France,UK and Ukraine
Russia?
Some of their actions would certainly seem in line with this theory. Wear down the Russian military but not fast enough for them to call it quits.
Send tanks and other armoured vehicles but in the double digits.
As regards the Poles, the seem to be continuing to supply Krab Howitzers and Wolverine IFVs. Which are at least partially funded by the EU & the US.
So imagine some of the "noise" lately is just electioneering season.
Being since the start actually going back to 2014 i was saying it ,if they don't get the equipment they won't defeat Russia,the US and others are happy to sit and watch the Russians get grinded down to nothing, but at the same time Ukrainians are getting ground down ,this war could have been over in a few months if the US and NATO decided to back Ukraine properly, but they aren't and zelensky trying to call countries for apparently not doing enough isn't going to end well ,if it wasn't for NATO and the EU he and his family would either be dead or in a Russian prison on some rediculous charges for crimes against Russia,
Ukraines defence budget is 44 Billion on top of the nearly 100 billion that's been donated by NATO and the EU
Update on where Ukrainian armour has been observed.
ISW (@TheStudyofWar) / X (twitter.com)
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