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RWC 2023 Ireland v South Africa Buildup - Sat 23rd Sep 20:00 Paris

ionadnapóca

No.1 Side in the World v World Champions

Possible teams:

Ireland:

Hugo Keenan; Mack Hansen, Gary Ringrose, Bundee Aki, James Lowe; Jonathan Sexton CAPTAIN, Jamison Gibson-Park; Andrew Porter, Ronan Kelleher, Tadhg Furlong; Tadhg Beirne, James Ryan; Peter O’Mahony, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris

Replacements: Rob Herring, David Kilcoyne, Tom O’Toole, Iain Henderson or Joe McCarthy, Ryan Baird, Conor Murray, Jack Crowley, Robbie Henshaw.

South Africa:

Damian Willemse; Kurt-Lee Arendse; Jesse Kriel; Damian de Allende; Cheslin Kolbe; Manie Libbok; Faf de Klerk; Steven Kitshoff, Mbongeni Mbonambi, Frans Malherbe; Eben Etzebeth, Franco Mostert; Siya Kolisi CAPTAIN, Pieter-Steph Du Toit, Jasper Wiese

Replacements: Deon Fourie, Ox Nche, Vincent Koch or Trevor Nyakane, RG Snyman, Marco van Staden, Duane Vermeulen, Grant Williams, Willie Le Roux or Handre Pollard.

Referee: Ben O'Keeffe (NZ)

Ireland to win 24 v 18

1 possible scenario:

Ireland beat SA (4 pts) = Ire 14 points

Scotland beat Tonga & Romania with BP = Scot 10 points

SA LBP v Ireland and beat Tonga with BP (=10pts) = SA 15 points

_____________________________________________________

Scotland beat Ireland with a 4 try BP = Scot 15 points

Ireland would need 1 LBP or 4 try BP v Scot = Ire 15pts

Because all 3* teams would have beaten each other it then comes down to the team with the best difference between points scored for and points scored against in all its pool matches.

*Only head-to-head Tiebreaker winner applies between when just 2 teams have the same total points won.

Realistically:

Winner of this game plays NZ in ¼ Final.

Winner of that plays Fiji/Australia or Argentina in Semi-Final.

Winner plays France in the Final.

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Comments

Neil3030

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121132171#Comment_121132171

We'll stick with a 5-3 whether it's Byrne or Crowley on the bench.

Thornley completely speculated whether Crowley on the bench MIGHT free Ireland up to go 6-2.

phog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121132092#Comment_121132092

I'm not sure I've seen him do a stint that long in front of the media before but he's a natural and you see snippets of that in the Access Munster clips throughout the year.

ersatz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121132190#Comment_121132190

Very risky to force a situation where JS has to play 80.

Neil3030

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121132260#Comment_121132260

That's exactly it. Doesn't matter how versatile the backup 10 is if, in all probability, he'll be replacing the 10.

Dubinusa

If we win there's going to be a very upset 😡 bokke lashing out on the forum.

AbusesToilets

We've beaten France soundly with a 5-3 bench, and they were comfortably a better team than this SA.

Buer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121131519#Comment_121131519

Yup. Willemse has plenty of experience at 12. Kolbe has played 15 a good few times at club level (and started there against Ireland last year). He's also played outhalf a couple of times back in the day for Toulouse.

Reinach doesn't have much experience on the wing but I'd have limited concern with him slotting in there. They could even just go for Kwagga Smith on the wing who isn't quite Macalou but he is very comfortable in that area of the pitch having played for SA 7s for years.

SA have a significant amount of flexibility in their back line which allows them consider these things but regardless, an injury to Libbok or DDA would be very disruptive to their game.

I hope we take them to a dark place in terms of fitness and look to keep the ball moving an in play as much as possible in the second half similar to how we took on France. Someone like Fickou is world class but was absolutely gasping for air in those closing stages.

I can see us getting very frustrated with the game on Saturday though. I fully expect SA to slow things right down and look to kill the clock as much as possible. The ball in play in the second half of the second test against the Lions was 14 minutes which is incredibly low.

I'm surprised that WR have given this game to Ben O'Keeffe given the controversy around the officiating in the first two Lions tests. No matter, if we win it will be because we inflicted our game plan on them and vice versa if they do so.

Buer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121131607#Comment_121131607

I'm not nearly as worried about their front five subs as I would have been if Marx and Koch were there. That would have given them Mbonambi and Koch coming into the game with 30 minutes left and a much steadier, more experienced platform.

Nche is a good player but not at that level as a scrummager. Nyakane is past his best. Leinster handled him without issue for Racing. Fourie is a great player in the loose and will give them an injection of energy but he's small for a hooker and isn't going to be giving them much ballast in the scrum. I suspect they're happy to go 7/1 and have two locks coming on to mitigate against the diminished power up front.

It's a far cry from 2019 final when they had a front five bench of Marx, Kitshoff, Koch, Snyman and Mostert.

Sanjuro

Has this team ever played 6-2? If not, now is not the time to start experimenting.

Jacovs

Has anyone even mentioned Duane Vermeulen not being in the 23 match day squad?

Far as I know he is fit to play. Suppose the 7-1 split didnt have space for him, if Kwagga is needed in the back line and the 8th man has to play a full 80 minutes then idk if Duane would be able at this stage.

Shehal

What I suspect is the case is I think Etzebeth is not fully ready. The way the Springboks have talked about his injury situation is they have made it believable he's fit to play but have also painted the situation in a way that if he ends up being ruled out it wont come as a surprise or come across as cynical to the average viewer. I suspect Rassie and Nianbar are going to look at Pollard in training to see how he is fitness wise in order to see if he's ready to feature in a game of this magnitude, if he is they'll go for him and if not I think they'll go for Le Roux on the bench with Kleyn coming in for Etzebeth in the SR.

Akrasia

Is there a chance Beirne starts at 6 with POM on the bench

We're gonna need something in reserve for the 2nd half

Having Beirne starting at 6 in a 3 lock pack gives us size without sacrificing much mobility and POM coming on at 50 mins adds leadership and improves our breakdown and lineout for the final third

Ireland don't have to change our game style, but we are vulnerable if the SA pack win the collisions and take away our ability to win quick ball at the ruck. Usually we can neutralise that over the 80 mins by being more mobile and fitter, but with the bomb squad, SA can finish even stronger than their starting 15 putting huge pressure on us to build a lead early or be forced to defend a lead against a fresher and bigger pack in the final 20 minutes

Buer

I wouldn't be shocked if we played Beirne at 6 but with POM moving across and VDF on the bench. Which isn't a criticism of VDF but I don't think we can go into this game without POM as a jumping option.

I'd also prefer VDF injecting pace and massive linespeed from the bench in the final 25 minutes as well as an open field carrying threat if the game does present an open field opportunity.

If Conan doesn't make it, I'd be happy to go with a bench of Kelleher/Sheehan, Kilcoyne, Bealham, McCarthy, VDF, Murray, Crowley, Henshaw.

I can see the attraction of having Conan in there instead of Henshaw for a 6/2 but I think it's such a big risk to do that with our lack of flexibility compared to SA. We also have a couple of backs who are relatively injury prone; Lowe, JGP, Sexton and Ringrose all spent chunks of the season out injured. I'd hate to see the reshuffle required if Ringrose went down. Sexton would see more traffic down his channel than ever seen before and be asked to play the 80 (which he might well do anyway).

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121132483#Comment_121132483

The Water breaks work against us a little bit right now in terms stretching their fitness

Without them fitness becomes critical , now however teams get a breather after ~20 minutes in each half.

I totally get the logic for day-time KO's in direct sun when it's 30+ degrees , but a 9pm KO in Paris this weekend it's only going to be 14/15 degrees - No need for Water breaks.

sydthebeat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121132704#Comment_121132704

Have water breaks been confirmed for ROUND 3?

they seem to be announced round by round

Jacovs

Games seem to take quite long these days, the water break adding to that. Could be an hour before first half ends, 2 hours for the full game.

Not a big difference from before, but noticeable.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121132712#Comment_121132712

I don't actually know - I had thought that it was a blanket agreement for the whole competition.

If it's variable based on the weather conditions then that's good.

2smiggy

when is the irish team announcement ?

Cookiemunster

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121132750#Comment_121132750

It's variable. It was announced before R1 and again before R2.

The forecast for France shows much lower temps this week with temps in the South of France only reaching the mid 20s and max temp in Paris on Saturday only hitting 20. I'd be surprised if we see any more water breaks.

phog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121132551#Comment_121132551

Is there a chance Beirne starts at 6 with POM on the bench

There's no chance that POM isn't in the starting 15, he's too important to our lineout.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121132919#Comment_121132919

Agreed - I really don't think we are going to see any major surprises or changes in the Irish team.

We should not be changing our plans to react to SA - We need to play our game , it should be enough if delivered to our best ability.

We'll have a 5-3 split on the bench and they only considerations will be around a few of the bench.

Do Conan and Sheehan make the bench?

Crowley vs. Byrne?

Baird vs McCarthy ?

lbj666

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121132190#Comment_121132190

Ya I'm just hypothesising, 5/3 we have to.. there isn't a choice in the matter.

standardg60

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121132818#Comment_121132818

There was no water break in the Australia Fiji game. Remember one of the players asking Andrew brace and he said 'no unfortunately '

pickarooney

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121132507#Comment_121132507

I think the team is as it will be on Saturday, the bench won't make a huge difference, there will be no major injuries and it will come down to who plays smartest on the day.

jammiedodgers

This week is dragging so much. Really can't wait for this game!

Lucy8080

Well, they've named their team early and we have the advantage of seeing how they set up to nullify Russel/Scotland attack. Every little helps.

Jacovs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121133115#Comment_121133115

You are going to need it.

(just a bit of friendly banter)

ionadnapóca

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121133005#Comment_121133005

Agree. No chance of 6-2 and no need. Even if SA had 8 forwards on the bench.

That's why I think Baird is nailed on for 20. jersey. No need for Conan or Sheehan at their stage of match sharpness

I think the only Qs for Farrell/POC is Henderson v McCarthy for 19.

I'm guessing Crowley will bench as 10/15 cover.

I think this game is personal to this squad. It has the feeling of that Ireland v Argentina game in 2003. But bigger!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1rp_JiCfVI

molloyjh

Have SA gone with they 7-1 split to directly counter our quick ruck speed and our fitness? Have players a mash rucks with abandon for 45 mins to be replaced with someone who can smash rucks with abandon for 35, and do that across the pack. If so it’s a testament to where we are that they feel the need to do something so radical to try and bottle us up.

If we can get into our rhythm early and get a score or two then it will be interesting to see how that impacts the game. Is this a SA side capable of chasing a game if they need to? Sure the starting XV are excellent, but that bench isn’t one that I would think could add the impact needed to turn things if they are behind.

In a way I’d really would love to see us stick to our guns with a 5-3 bench and just select our best XV. Send them a message that they can worry about our game, we won’t worry about theirs. But there’s real merit in Hendo to start, Beirne to 6, POM to 7 with McCarthy and VDF on the bench. We’ve seen VDF bring a lot of pace off the bench already in the last few weeks so they may already have been planning for something like that.

pickarooney

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121133178#Comment_121133178

Surely it'll be a scrum-half at 21 if we go with a 5-3?