It will go mad for the next 18 months due to simple supply and demand. By 2025 we will know for certain what 2026 holds regarding derogation going or not looking likely it will go. Only then we may start to see some sort of a correction to the market but we’ve been waiting for a correction in land, housing and other property prices for years now and no end in sight. This might be the new norm.
Anyhow we won’t be taking on any extra land beef side will be reduced in line with 220 for the next 2 years and phased out completely by 2026 I’d say.
Everyone is entitled to rent land.
No sector of farming in Ireland is entitled to land over the other.
Farming in Ireland has farmers with toes in multiple agricultural commodities and sectors. The dairy vs tillage and livestock vs tillage and livestock vs dairy is being promoted by the specialist commodity speakers in our agricultural media and teagasc and little minded people with a narrow view of the world.
None of us are greedy. But a certain amount is able to sustain a person. And some think they need more than the next person to survive. And then look for artificial market interference to help their status and standing in the farming community. (Bragging rights). But being artificial from the harsh world of commerce usually leads to a crashing fall.
Overdrive for about 12-18 months. Crash in rental coming sooner than we think. The cost of rental land + SFP is eating too much margin out of most system.
With some of the horror stories out there on land rental it's only a matter of time until we see landlords looking for a security deposit and a years rent up front
Give me your opinion first
The land market will not go into overdrive. This is a myth peddelled by auctioneers. An acre of land at a milk price of 40c/L gives you a turnover per acre in milk production of 2400 euro maximum. Anybody bidding more than 400/ acre will probably struggle to pay it. If we see a milk price of 30c/L it's 1800/ acre in milk output.
The sums do not stack up. A replacement is probably averaging at 200-250/ cow across the average dairy herd. 500 kgs if ration at 200 euro. Culls and calves will add 2-300/ acre onto sales
Land rental prices will reduce over time. It may pay you to pay 400/ acres if you have decent capital allowances to use up, but IMO at 300/ acre (especially as SFP is mostly being paid to the land owner) even at 40c/L you will be a busy fool.
Trying to maintain production by land rental is not the answer
What is your opinion of a tillage farmer owning 200 acres and renting 1000 acres?
Greedy?
When qoutas went there was no mention from ifa or anyone else of land rental markets dairymen pushed land up by about 100 acre at the time i know it seems small in context of now but it was enough to push sheep and beef men of land as i said before i had the chance to rent land but i choose not but i honestly can see why a smaller farm did to stay viable but i think it was a wrong move alot of investments were done on farm ont the basis of rented or leased land which even without nitrates derogation was risky buisness
the farmers you talk about who benefited are the ones being paid to do nothing with their land drawing payments and schemes with a hand full of cattle and more power to them for utilizing it to the best they can for least work, nitrates affects all farmers the land market will go into overdrive next year taking land from every sector to maintain the dairy which I’m sure you’re aware.
He has a point. Michael Martin should have refused to meet them. Ministers are appointed by the President at the behest of the Toiseach of the day. If they do not want to meet the appointed Minister let them take the issue to the Toiseach.
TBH IFA are behind the curve on everything for the last 2-3 years. This will not be renegotiated. Ya farm payment being 3-4 weeks later is a PITH but it was well flagged since early in the year TBF.
IFA did f@@kall for smaller beef farmers over the years....... there only interest seems to be larger commercial farmers. It has left them as a lobby group without a voting base.
The nitrates issue effect 6k farmers( and some if them minimally) the rest of the farming community is virtually unaffected. I go so far as to say that many farmers have benefited from some of McConalogue changes to SFP. For a lot of farmers it is levelling the pitch so as to speak.
Im a genuine farmer my name is not john
Will u be able to take a break from stirring the pot here john for your weekly slot with your buddy matt cooper
There's always a fool or a chancery or both who will leap at these things
Just read they met with the minister but they would not meet with him couple of days ago.Rte has stated 80 were at last protest in dublin
Its beyond me the places ifa protest horse on jockey its not even a village. Its even worse than the sheep protest in roscommon town last year one spring morning id say the locals didnt even notice there was a protest
https://www.irishtimes.com/environment/2023/09/11/tanaiste-meets-protesting-farmers-after-they-refuse-to-engage-with-minister-for-agriculture/
Yourself and Antonio have made great points here today and I think an awful lot of people need to take note of what they will mean to there own business and how they will need to adjust going forward. Obviously its each to there own but these changes will have wide-ranging consequences
In all seriousness how could any dairy farm that size i qouted make that money
Cultured lad aren't you..........
Now now ted your just being greedy .....give the beef and sheep men a chance so you don't look like a greedy ex dairy farmer........ this what you want isn't it .......or am I mistaken 😌😌
Why is anyone taking this lad seriously? Take his input for what it is, A source of entertainment. He’s knocking some craic out of it, everyone else may as well do the same.
MOD:
daiymann 5, you've been given a lot of lattitude, or rope. That's coming to an end. Debate the issues and quit personalising your comments.
Either take this discussion seriously and show others respect or your ability to participate will be stopped.
There are a few fellows on here who never heard of Moses. He was a lad a few thousand years ago, running around a hill with two big stones. And one had on it not to covet your neighbors goods.
If you have only ten acres of bog go away and do the best you can with it. Don't be looking over the ditch moaning all your life that some fellow has thousands of acres of great land.
There is an election coming up, don't fight with eachother. Fight for eachother
There would be nothing stopping them from requiring you to submit details of all your land farmed if they wanted to. I wouldn't count on it as a long term strategy
Take a few deep breaths before you type your next smart-alec comment. There's real people behind every user-name here.
If you feel you have to insult people, go to the mart or the co-op store and do it face-to-face.
Already have a job with a multinational farming with the parents couldn’t justify 3 of us at home full time
How do the department know what area your farming and your n stocking rate, if you don't submit a bps/maps I reckon its not even recorded and reported to the EU, Irish water where ment to have the issue re sewage going into waterways sorted long ago under eu directives but they haven't, why havent they been brought to court and fined millions of euro for breaches by the commission?
Likewise as the primetime investigates on illegal quarries and the esb letting huge amounts of oil leak into waterways little to nothing has been done about it, why are farmers expected to adhere strictly to EU law when the rest of the country including semi-state bodies don't?
You should lease yours go get a job for yourself
With all your land uve no worries mate.Over 2000 acres owned ur some boy
Yes. It is an EU directive which sets an objective that the State is obliged to reach. The State has discretion in how it implements the directive.
However, there is an explicit requirement in that directive that if there are nitrates in the water, then the limit of 170kg/ha must be enforced unless the State gets a derogation. Ireland currently has a derogation.
The (incorrect) assumption by some is that the department punish for breaches by cutting BPS payments so if a farmer has no BPS then there is nothing that they could do.
On a larger scale, if farmers were foregoing BPS and ignoring the 170kg limit, then the EU would take Ireland to court to force it to correct it. So it would be cracked down on sooner or later.
I didn't think the nitrates were linked to BPS, but was a national thing we must adhere to
