Fair few reports of UAF definitely building momentum and reports of Russians throwing elite units into the mix to hold the defence lines. But progress is definitely more visual now.
Something interesting for a dull monday morning, just "rumors" but not out of the question.
It was quoted by Ukrainian officials that they had only committed between 25-30% of their newly formed forces to the counter offensive.
They were probing looking for a weakness, with the hope, once found they could commit the rest. Obviously it didn't quite turn out that way, but they committed more and have been able to breach and make ground on both southern fronts. The vast minefields seemed to have caused the most trouble, one would expect the other lines of defensive will not be as hard. Once the Russian's are on the back foot, they won't have the time to mine the area as extensively as before.
Per the Daily Telegraph:
The Ukranian battalions, who recently joined the counter offensive, trained by British special forces are now seemingly having an impact in the south. They have top notch western weaponry and were trained extensively in breaching the heavily fortified defenses that the Russian have
Now rather than rolling their eyes at the official propaganda, Russian Internet commentators are finally calling out the official bs.
Some argue that all wars boil down to economics. If one side can finance more they will win eventually.
And the collapse of oil prices in the 80s.
Yes, financially, the war in Afghanistan was bankrupting Russia. It played an important part in the Kremlins decision to pull out of Afghanistan. Imagine what the war in Ukraine is doing to their finances now?
It’s also worth noting that the Soviet Union of 1983 had the veneer of being terrifying, but the structures behind that image were already on their way to collapse, thanked in no small way by their war in Afghanistan.
It could be, the Russians were obviously trying to save themselves, met the car, stopped it and forced the occupants out, warning them not to raise the alarm, or else, and kept the child as insurance. These bastards are capable of anything.
Yeah, people keep forgetting Russia today is a decaying hollowed out husk of the Soviet Union.
Soviet Union of 1983 -terrifying
Russian federation 2023 - paper tiger
I'd also point out that the paper tiger is made from substandard Chinese paper.
Sorry, just a little something that bugs me here, it wasn't the "Russians" at Kursk, it was the Soviets, which were the Ukrainians, the Kazaks, the Azeris, the Georgians....etc etc, and the Russians, one of the main soviet commanders was even Polish. ;)
Doesn't really matter what is said by literally any Russian when it comes to Russia. They will chop, change, distort or plain manufacture the narrative to suit themselves. There's a lot of truth in the saying " If you want the truth from Russia, listen to what they say, and then believe the opposite" .
If the Russians are going the way they did at Kursk (ww2) they will have a mobile defence sowing mines in the path of the advance with up to 5 main lines of defence. Also a reserve to throw in after the offfensive stalls or is fed in when a collapse may happen.
Education system in Russia is A1 for sheep.
Putin has been making this argument for a year and a half. I really don't think that a frank statement by Romney is going to be the thing that really gets that argument across in Russia.
Obviously, the USA wants a closer relationship with Ukraine, but the crucial thing is that the Ukrainian people themselves want a closer relationship with the US and the West, or at the very least to choose their own destiny. We can see this in how hard they're fighting to push Russia out.
All Ukraine has to do is to strangle Russian Logistics, and after that, let nature take its course. There are increasing complaints from Russian commanders on the front lines ( and possibly from the artillery battalions' well behind the front line's too) about the shortages of basically every thing, but ammunition being the most important. The Ukrainians are hammering them where it really hurts. No point in sending in reinforcement's into the defensive positions, and not supplying them with the weapon's and ammunition they will need
They have their own domestic politics to worry about. It's an entirely reasonable thing to say.
I'd see it as being the opposite. Its obviously aimed at an American audience, pointing out benefits which are close to every American heart's IE: cash V obvious benefits American lives' etc . And as for the Russian's they've being pushing US involvement since day one, and one of their winning strategies is that with Trumps re-election ( ??? ) this support will dwindle away, or best case, stop completely. But this interview paints a completely different picture to what they want to hear, instead of a drop in support, instead there's an active support for continued, if not actually an increase of involvement by US Ukraine. Not good news for Putin.
Just back from a 2 week technology free holiday, that was so refreshing :)
Good to see things moving along nicely. I'd say we could see some serious movement within the next few weeks.
The USA may like to see a weakened Russia but they should not say it in public because it feeds the idea that the west is out to destroy Russia and "NATO" is in a war against Russia. This will only increase support for the war among Russians. One of Putin's strongest arguments is that the west is out to get them.
Unless I missed something, I heard Romney say that it is the USA's interest to see Russia weakened, which is true. Russian propaganda needs little feeding at this stage with or without that statement. When you're claiming your enemy are gay demons, drug addicts and Nazis, a frank statement by Mitt Romney is positively anodyne. I don't think any country gets involved with foreign countries out of pure altruism. There is always the motivation of advancing interests beyond their borders.
Well even a stopped clock is right twice a day.
Hubris.
I'm wondering did they take the child as protection?
Could be that they stole it then realised there was a child inside so abandoned it.
I know it sounds mad but it happened to a Roma football player and his wife.
Could also be as simple as the child being from a house just out of short and was being nosey.
The car seems to have broken down, and maybe not far from where they stole it. Then the other military vehicle pulls up, and they don't waste time piling into it. I wonder if the 2nd vehicle occupants are telling them that a force are coming after them to rescue the child? They're in such a hurry they even leave a weapon behind, you can see it at the rear wheel of the vehicle.
From what I've read and seen, seems like success could be as simply as "can Ukraine attack Russia's logistics lines running East-West across the south and into Crimea. Cos at that stage Russia only has the sea at its back and nowhere else to go, effectively giving Ukraine free reign to indiscriminately pound the enemy, even during the seasonal lull.
I think success and failure depends on what happens next. If the lines don't move much more before next summer Russia could consider it a success.
If the rate of progress increases over the next 2 months and Ukraine find themselves on the outskirts of Tokmak after moving the line up 15/20km they would consider that a success and might look to next summer when they could finish off the job.
What an idiot feeding into Russian propaganda
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