This is a good point. I remember hearing on an economist podcast an excellent remark that dictatorships often look very secure until about 5 minutes before they collapse. The stalemate situation could be similar. Or it might go on and on. Who knows...
If you think lefties support a totalitarian right wing country like Russia then you've been drinking the far right coolaid my friend.
Port on fire in Mordor
Depends on what analyst you're listening to. If it's Michael Clarke then he's been reasonably good so far. Although nobody has a crystal ball and its not clear but to a handful of people what's actually happening on the ground as a whole.
If its Sean Bell then good luck. The guy is as much a military analyst as I am. A through and through idiot who has been calling for Ukraine to sue for peace since the start of the war. Even as Russia was flattening Severodonetsk. If Ukr had taken his advice they wouldn't have reclaimed Kherson nor Kharkiv.
There was a Washington post article released either today or yesterday where US Intelligence officials are saying its unlikely that this Ukraine counter offensive will achieve the gold medal of piercing all the way to Melitopol. Just to get ahead of the misery merchants on the thread.
And while I'd actually agree that it seems unlikely that Ukraine will reach the sea of Azov by this time 8 weeks there really isn't anything new in the article that isn't widely known for months now.
The hope is there'll be a breakthrough somewhere by October but it's looking increasingly unlikely.
By what metric are you basing this on? Ukraine are on the offensive and currently(going by Oryx) destroying Russian armor and equipment at a rate 3x to what they're losing. That's absolutely miraculous considering the defenders advantage. And an absolute disaster for Russia. Russian artillery and counter battery is being absolutely genocided daily.Russia even fired one of their most respected generals for saying as much. They fully lost 2 of their most effective anti armor helis yesterday alone. And continue to lose 1 a week.
The Ukr forces that have crossed the Dnipro continue to creep forwards towards the only good main supply line in the south by Oleshky. And Russia seem unable to dislodge them. Almost certainly because they simply don't have the reserves to do it. Another potentially catastrophic sign for Russia. And now as of a couple of days ago Ukraine has put their 82nd brigade into the mix. So we'll see soon enough why they've chosen to do this.
All that implies that a breakthrough is much MORE likely now than it was 2 months ago. Unless the mud season starts tomorrow. They may not make massive gains in this counter offensive noone here knows. But I just can't agree that the signs are terrible as of today.
Yes, the bridge can be defended from rocket attacks with a combination of air defence systems. Which needs to be taken off the front lines, so Ukraine wins in any case if it continues sending cheap drones and rockets towards the bridge. But the bridge was damaged twice already, and not by rockets -- once by a truck bomb, and another time by drone boats. Next time it could be mined by Ukrainian sappers brought by a submarine.
It is hard to determine if it is a failure or success unless you know what the Russian strength is. There is a lot of uncertainty about what they have. But they are losing battles so they can't have a huge amount left.
I haven't bothered following the daily in's and out's of the war but the reason i ask the question is because the analyst on sky sounded pretty much as saying the window was closing rapidly for success and i remember a few months back hearing a lot of experts saying this offensive was Ukraine's last chance to regain what's rightfully theirs.
You are right though, there where many very naive predictions and a lot of bravado that was never realistic.
I'd reckon that Kerch Bridge is living on borrowed time. What's likely saving it at the moment are the dire threats & retaliation the Russian administration rush out any time it has been damaged to date. Russia however went ahead and blew the Kakhovka Dam and is constantly reckless around the Zaporizhia nuclear plant. Ukraine will sooner or later be able to target it. Even if the west limits the range or defines use of supplies, they can/ will develop their own. I'm no expert on air defence systems, can you defend an 18 kilometre narrow bridge?
Honestly, stalemate doesn't suit Putin. The economic ravages of the war on Russia are compounding. The stories of mobilised beginning to return to Russia (and causing chaos as they do), will increase as whomever survive start to return. They need to be replaced and it's not as if we're seeing volunteers lining the streets. Winter MAY be a geographical advantage to defenders rather than attackers in Ukraine, but that's very different to the battle Putin and Russia are facing, in which time will be working actively against them.
The recently announced 12.5% interest rate from the Russian central bank is fairly brutal on a country that can barely feed itself outside its major cities. And there are no signs of day to day life for those in Russia to improve.
I'd say the plan originally was to get to Mariupol. Now I think they'd be happy or settle with Tokmak, which itself would force Russia to withdraw further south. Create a new grey zone.
The fcuk up is with the west in delaying supplying UAF with what they needed. Gave Russia ample time to mine the fcuk out of everything.
Apparently 5 more on there way
As things stand currently, the counteroffensive certainly looks to have failed. There were broad territorial expectations before it began and the UAF are now rapidly running out of time to meet them. By the time winter kicks in, we'll be back to 6/7 months of stalemate, which will suit Putin.
Total failure no.
Crushing success some naive cheerleaders were predicting when it started? Obviously not.
If we're still here a year from now (very possible if Putin is still in power) then I think it will be deemed a failure and calls will get louder for negotiated settlement in exchange for NATO membership or whatever.
Confirmed by BBC, though in all honesty these drone attacks in Moscow seem mostly to be failures, rarely avoiding being shot down. Moscow air defences probably best in the country? There need to be more successful hits to have a real impact. Maybe go for easier targets or choose less protected cities
Hopefully training has started and hopefully they get a meaningful number like 30 of them.
More good news and a another step closer to F-16s in Ukrainian hands.
Tis but one part of this war, it will be a long time before anyone knows for certain. My feeling is that it has been quite successful, a serious number of Russians killed and their equipment destroyed (how many K-52s have been downed?), the Russian supplies routes such as the Chongar and Kerch bridges have been hit and supplies disrupted. The many probing attacks have also stretched the Russians and wore down there counter battery abilities. The UAF are moving forward which is the main thing.
Slower progress than hoped but not a failure
Seems to be gaining momentum at the moment
Define failure?
Is the Russian army still in Ukraine?
Yes.
Is that failure?
Are the Russians losing ground?
Is it fair to say the counter offensive has been a failure thus far? Seems to be the vibe the expert on Sky News has being putting out all week.
Reports of another incident at an exhibition centre in moskow overnight.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66541027
A few of the channels that I watch had Ukraine using two tanks in part of the assault on Urozhaine, it's a cagey careful strategy, assault gain ground, remove equipment as the inevitable Russian artillery assault rains down, identify the artillery positions, Hiimars them and start again.
Without doubt, Ukraine have been looking to do two things, stretch Russian logistics, up and down the front and destroy their supply chain. If they can completely cut the Kerch bridge Russia will be in some bind. As with Virgil Russia have been throwing ridiculous resources to hold tiny villages, presumably if Ukraine gain some more ground all the way to the sea will be within Himars range. If that happens nothing will be safe for Russia.
Last winter Russia did all the attacking and through the mud season after winter until they finally captured Bakhmut. But they still have artillery superiority. Now it seems like Ukraine does and this winter the gap might grow. They could have a huge advantage.
With that in mind maybe Ukraine Will actually keep attacking into the winter and make further gains?
Took them bloody long enough! The US gives the green light to Denmark & the Netherlands to send F-16s to Ukraine as soon as pilot training is complete: https://www.reuters.com/world/us-approves-sending-f-16s-ukraine-denmark-netherlands-2023-08-17/
The most compelling counter pointIve heard is that if they dont make progress they can go back to their supporting nations and say "see we need more". I dont necessarily subscribe to same, but at the very least there is a silver lining.
Another point is that this is a war, and in a war youve got to fight. And if youve got to fight, youve got to fight somewhere. So we hope that Ukraine fight on favourable terms and that this all leading to something. But even if the front line doesnt move substantially before the winter, theres nothing else Ukraine can do. They cant just pack up their stuff and go home. Unlike the Russians, they have to fight.
My own theory and from reading is that Ukraine realise that Russian reserve forces have become critically low. And they don't have the reserves to maintain the southern front as it is and that a push now with their heavy brigades could potentially break through the lines.
UAF aren't stupid. They haven't been throwing their soldiers and armor into the fire for Robotyne and Urozhaine. Two tiny insignificant villages. Russia know full well that defending Urozhaine and then tactically retreating to a better line of defense, minimizing their losses and maximising Ukraines is the standard procedure and best practise. But they don't. We've seen Russians holding on to Urozhaine well beyond what was logically sound until they were forced to abandon the place on foot. At which point dozens of them were clustered out of existence. Every day we hear about Russians counter attacking like madmen on these small settlements. Burning through their reserves.
Now why is this? Russia aren't as stupid as we'd all like to believe either. Why aren't they simply holding their positions and retreating when it becomes too hot? I think the reason they're doing this is twofold.
You see many pundits decrying the lack of progress on the front and if Ukraine were to continue taking territory at their current rate it'll be over a year worth of slogging and I doubt they have that much men and material to maintain that tempo. But they know this and still they persist. I don't believe its fair to measure this thing linearly. It's a snowball. The beginning is the toughest part. Whether the snowball gains enough momentum remains to be seen.
They probably have up until October with decent weather as will probably change then. I say it's more mother nature has the Ukrainians on the stop watch as they know when that comes in could delay them until next year. The Russians know this as well, if they can hold Ukraine till then they will just build tons more trenches and lay millions of more mines over the months then as a lot of the front will be semi static then with more artillery juels and probably more smaller engagements. So I say Ukraine like Russia will try and throw all they can now over the next 6 to 7 wks. I say that's why your probably seeing now more of the heavy armoured Ukrainian battalions attacking now.
Oh i agree, this is totally different from last year, but just making a breakthrough to the little pyramids would be a win at this stage
The Kharkiv offensive last year totally took the Russians by surprise, that not happening now, but seeing as going forward has been so slow for a long time its just seems things could be happening right now
Reports show that after capturing Urozhaine, Ukrainian's didn't stop and continued the attack south, which if true sounds good
Most likely was a propaganda stunt. The cameras were in position for the arrival of the van as well, and that's not something pre-advertised, quite the opposite in fact when they are picking up some one.
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