Citing an Ukrainian outlet there is nothing to see here there is no threat,
When there's a clear and obvious threat,but remember before the invasion last year the Ukrainians themselves downplayed the idea of a Russian invasion and went to the point of blaming the US for ramping it up ,
Then came the invasion that wasn't going to happen
So they flooded the northern front with 100k mobiks and soldier's after Ukraines kharkiv breakthrough. Makes sense. Won't be easy making any gains there and could in fact be Russia who makes gain's over the next year.
Just to highlight the importance of not overreacting to catchy negative headlines:
“It wasn’t yesterday that 100,000 appeared. This number has existed for a long time, it can be a little more, a little less.”
Despite its size, the group is not well prepared and motivated, Cherevatyi stressed.
“Yes, it’s large and it’s necessary to take into account its size,” he said.
“However, this number is not an indicator of a threat or cause for fear.”
There may certainly be an element of that, but there is also a massive strategic edge to making the Kerch bridge unreliable to the Russians. Beyond attacks on the bridge, this is probably the safest route for them to supply their forces in Southern Ukraine. Right up to the Sea of Azov, their “land bridge” is within range for attack. Events like the past days might throw an already threadbare Russian logistics system into chaos.
Yeah, but isn't Russia the largest grain exporter? They'll just sell at a discount, and suddenly the rest of the world likes them again.
I assume the force of the explosion would be trapped by the water and go upwards.
Exactly. The bridge is a good hit from PR point of view but changes little in the bigger picture.
Here's a sober assessment of how the counteroffensive is going from someone who actually knows what they're talking about. I think it's fair to say he sounds neither overly upbeat nor hopeless:
I think they hit the bridge for the propaganda victory and to take away from the lack of gains from the faultering counteroffensive,they will get some uplift from it ,but the questions about the counter offensive will be still be asked next weeks and months down the line ,the other day it's was big video about how they took an island on the dniper which only had 10 Russians on it ,
If the AFU are putting some thought into this, it might be a combination of ability (when it’s even possible for them to strike the bridge) and timing for when it will likely cause the most pain.
You’ve also got to be selective with attack methods. As soon as you use for example a truck-bomb or an air strike, the Russians will introduce countermeasures to prevent that type of attack. You want to save your attack vector options for when you need them. My guess is that this is the reason these attacks are not more frequent.
However, if Ukraine reach the Sea of Azov then all bets are off. I’d expect regular attacks on the bridge at that stage.
Very little grain and oilseed transited overland out of Ukraine until the war. Its gone up by an order of magnitude since so its having an outsize disruption on bordering countries. Western Europe has more overland logistics on top so its not competing as well with their product, but its undercutting domestic markets in Romania, Hungary etc. I don't have much time for their complaints, but they're not without merit.
Poland too after they were flooded with cheap grain meant for other market's,they also want to transport the grains by trucks and trains to other European countries, which would have the same knock on effects on local markets
Weren't Romanian farmers protesting last year about Ukrainian grain undercutting them?
Yer nearly right. It will suit a lot of processors, not producers
Are Carburetors really sanctioned technology? I tend to think of things like microchips, circuit boards etc. rather than early 20th tech when I hear of sanctions!
The Bosporus strait is closed due to the Montreux conventions I believe. So Turkiye are the only ones who can do any escorting anyway.
We know about Russia,but it's the international community standing back and doing nothing about it,
Grain prices will increase across the world including in the US and EU which will suit alot of producers of grains
That would be the best course of action, that useless body the UN might actually be of some service if it can show up the utter hypocrisy of Russia. Maybe we could even send a navy ship under a UN mandate, though doubtless poor Claire and Mick would have a heart attack at the prospect.
Well when millions start to starve and grain prices go through the roof people will be forced to see that russia caused it
The part looks to be a diaphragm cover of a carburetor.
The US said that they won't be getting involved in protecting grain shipments from Ukraine ,
As I previously there doesn't seem to be any great will from the international community to get involved in protecting Ukrainian grain shipments...
Those parts could have been in a store in Iran for 20 years for god sake
Edit... Post above explains
A three year investigation by conflict armament research found fake Tillitson parts in Russian drones.
Tillotson told CAR that the fuel pump cover and HE Series carburettor were fake, indicated by an inconsistent font, letter placement and indentation.
The County Kerry-based firm also pointed to added features, missing pins and a stamp with an unusual orientation.
That doesn't really matter once they're sticking "MADE IN IRELAND" across their parts.
Tilloston one of the oldest carburetor makers in the world based in USA they have a small operation in Ireland.
Correct. Countries like Iran and Russia are experts at getting components/materials through third parties (and third countries)
So e.g. a Chinese manufacturer could have legally ordered these parts from this Irish company. Fully compliant. After that, and much further down the chain, the parts could have been transferred to Iran.
It's challenging to police. Post-fact, they can check part numbers and then report that sale to the authorities in order to start tracing the flow.
The part in question is a carburetor manufactured in Tralee by a US-owned company. Carburetors like this are used for example in lawn mowers, power tools and anything with a small engine. They have a retail value of maybe €20. My guess would be that these were not delivered to Iran directly but to a third country. It's simply not possible for the manufacturer to know where such innocuous components are ultimately used. The outrage and disappointment with "Ireland" on social media shows just what a poor source of information Twitter is.
Company is based in Tralee, County Kerry. Will be difficult to trace how that part got onto that suicide drone, but not a good look for them at all. Their Google reviews are already being targeted by Ukrainians and photos of the damage the drone did are being uploaded onto their Google page. They've just gone on holidays for two weeks, could see that break being cut short for management...
That's why Putin is so desperate to get something out of the grain deal.
I'd agree with that, but its so painstakingly obvious, why has it not been hit before now? Whatever is going on, there is some method or justification Ukraine's methodology.
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