A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

How long before a well paid tech employee caves and signs on the dole? Also, next year corporate tax goes to 15% so no more windfall tax.

Interesting times.

Caves? Why wouldn't they sign on and get what they are entitled to claim?

The bumper corporation tax early this year was already flagged as a once off, but I'm sure this thread will be hopping with the usual, when the YOY figure drops by a massive % early next year (despite it being flagged a year in advance)

Looks like producer prices falling in most places now. They will start printing soon enough to get inflation up to 2% or something.

Global economy is slowing down quickly. Consumers are spending more on essentials like food, mortgage, bills, fuel and putting off non essential purchases.

So factories sell less, have to sell cheaper and probably make less profit in doing so. Then consumers get hit with further interest rate hikes and have even less to spend and on it goes.

Like you say factories have to keep making and selling but what can you do if customers don't have the cash to buy or need what you make. Then again as you say the people with the spare cash hold off, because they think a new car for example will be a lot cheaper next year, so they wait to pick up a bargain.

Like those crazy PPI rises in Germany last year where it took a while to pass on to the consumer, you would think the same thing will happen just in reverse.

Maybe i'm wrong who knows.

Maybe so. I worked in tech in my 20s and was made redundant and was reluctant to go on the dole. I generally tried to pay my own way and I guess it was a pride thing. I assumed I was not the only one like that but maybe I'm wrong.

When is what starting ?

Good to know.

edit: I see it now.. No news on numbers yet it seems.

Summer is always quieter, lets see what it is like come September when people are back from holidays

one word : China

About time they got something correct.

10 years ago the focus was all banking regulation reform and as a result we ended up with an increase in shadow banking. Take for example CRE banks were forced to hold more capital and as a result did little lending to CRE. Instead funds provided the loans and banks lent to the funds but had much lower exposure because there were also investors providing funding.

The systemic risk was way lower as the lending was in a confined unit and the risk to bank was substantially lower due to the reduced lending exposure. But what happened was that the overall size of the funds markets grew to such a size that it has systemic risks because the investors who were traditionally high net worth clients got replaced with insurance/investment investors and if there investment turned sour then they could be in trouble which indirectly would impact banks that have also lent to them. (I.e. the bank’s overall exposure = loan to funds + loan to investors)

The only jurisdiction that has anything in place to deal with this risk is the BOE as they introduced ring-fencing legislation that prevented retail banks from lending to the shadow banking sector. (I.e the ring fenced banks are protected from any problems in the shadow banking sector)