If you can read that article and still believe that the recapture of Hostomel airport was not essential for the defence of Kyiv then I would be wasting everyone’s time trying to convince you otherwise.
How many times must I repeat my original point - that the Americans, alone among the Western powers, warned Kyiv of the impending invasion? But nothing I’ve seen suggests that the Americans had a top level source in the Russian MoD, the point I have been trying to make. US advice about protecting Hostomel can be explained simply as sound military analysis - protect all your capital’s airports- and required no special knowledge of the enemy’s plans.
But if you think the Americans have a source in the Russian MoD who is telling them what what went on in the Kremlin last weekend, you are blind to the obvious befuddlement in Washington and in the Western media.
I’ll leave it there.
Neither you nor I nor anyone else knows what is going on behind the scenes with Putin, lukashenko and Wagner. The whole thing is bizarre and only time will tell what everyone's purpose is.
It's likely the US and other foreign countries have multiple sources and taps in the Kremlin. How high and how deep they go we don't know. Also, they don't necessarily need someone right beside Putin, a picture can be built from having intel from levels within the FSB, Rosgvardia, Kremlin staffers, GRU, etc. On top of that, if they had strong intel it's unlikely they would put it at risk for column inches in papers, only for very serious threats to national security.
Also to be so adamant that the invasion was coming in the face of disagreement from almost everyone in Europe and Ukraine themselves and to publish it so openly they must have been incredibly sure of their intel. Whether that is someone in the MOD or 5 photocopiers doesn't really matter.
I don't know what in that story makes anyone think the recapture of hostomel airport was so essential though. It was certainly helpful, but also somewhat inevitable because like much of the rest of the invasion it was a terribly planned op that was never likely to succeed in the long term.
Is that not Rick Stein maybe they’re opening a fish restaurant in Moscow
it’s also actually a Saab model, but I think dolly has the right context here
I think the pentagon leaks said America have high level spies in the Russian MOD and the Wagner group.
Of course. Great tune too.
How long does Prigozhin think he will last? Putin has unalived people for a lot less
I assume it's for the same or similar reasons Commodus doesn't kill Maximus even when he has him dead to rights: you don't try and make martyrs and you don't try and set the match on a rebellion. Least of all when your martyr is a 'war hero' with the adoration of your military...
Prof. M Clarke on Sky believes that Ukraine is stretching the Russians out along a very wide front before a major thrust. He also said that there was a contract on Prigozhin!
I think that the coup or whatever it was shows the pressure the Russians are under now. The sanctions, finance and military problems are having a serious effect.
New round of American military assistance has now been confirmed
How did that end up for max?
I'm knowledged on military tactics and equipment. Political machinations aren't my department. Sorry.
Not well, but Priggy has bought himself time.
There is a significant difference between 'clearing' a minefield, and 'breaching' a minefield. Clearing minefields is the stuff of very slow, methodical, dedicated work, which can go on for years after the war is over. "Breaching" merely requires the creation of a marked lane through the minefield. Generally a MCLC is used to either detonate, or blow to the side, the various mines in the suspected field, but then it needs to be proofed because the MCLC won't get them all. That's there the plough-equipped tanks come in. Rollers can be used as well, but they tend to be less effective. A plough or roller is normally good for one or two mine strikes before it needs to be replaced. These vehicles are very vulnerable, as they operate at a walking pace, tend to be fairly unmaneuverable, and cannot have the turret front towards the enemy (if they have one), in order to protect the gun from the detonations of the mines. The breach of a minefield can take anything from 20 minutes to a couple of hours, depending on resistance and size of the minefield.
It's also important to remember the point of a minefield (or any other form of obstacle, from dragon's teeth to anti-tank ditches or abatis). They are rarely used as blocking obstacles because it's just so hard to make a blocking minefield. They are more frequently used as turning, disrupting or delay obstacles (Each of those four terms has its own doctrinal definition). Just because a minefield is breached doesn't mean it hasn't done its job.
I prefer this version...
Did Professor Clarke have any opinions on how Ukraine can bypass the large minefields, which Russia appears to have laid down, when this main thrust occurs?
How effective would a MOAB be vs. a MCLC at the same job?
New Russian wonder weapon
https://twitter.com/jaharamatisek/status/1673752753087168513?s=46&t=GTNY5JeNwPhsZu-DGXAMMg
I miss bad asian animation
In theory, great. The thing is dropped out of a C-130 or C-17, though, so how would you get it there without getting shot down?
Are you saying the American intelligence services knew what was going on in Russia last Sunday (when the world thought a homicidal lunatic might get his hands on Russia's nuclear arsenal) but that they preferred their President and senior officials to look like deer caught in the headlights rather than re-assuring the American people because that would give the impression that they had better sources of information in the Kremlin?
I am saying the opposite and that one of the most important aspects of this episode is the weakness of Western intelligence in Russia. Everyone knew Prigozhin was angry and unstable but he caught everyone with their pants down last weekend and it is hard even for media close to the Biden Administration to disguise this -
I don't blame the CIA etc. for not anticipating Prigozhin's mutiny - that took everyone by surprise, especially the Russian MoD. But the element of surprise was gone by Saturday evening when Lukashenko announced the "deal". As far as I can see, no Western power seems to know what is happening in Russia even now e.g. is Putin's power secure? what becomes of Prigozhin and the Wagner mercenaries? how will it affect the war in Ukraine? I doubt if they even know whether General Gerasimov is even still alive [I assume so and expect him to re-emerge shortly, but who knows?]
All the Western media analysts, including those who are known to be linked to Western intelligence services, are just speculating with whatever crumbs of information become public. They don't even pretend to have sources in the Kremlin (and the media always boast about any high-level contacts).
I say we are back in the depths of the Cold War when Western intelligence had no high-level source in the Kremlin. Ditto with Beijing. The internet gives Americans a huge advantage in SigInt but not in Russia, it seems, nor in China (which may have turned the tables on the Americans in that area).
We are going to experience many more unpleasant surprises from Russia and China.
Great point, supposing that would only be viable in very large scale joint operations with lots of air and ground assets involved to support a bigly and immediate push.
Intelligence may have learned what Prig was planning, but like Prig, Putin, Luk, Shoigu, etc they didn't know exactly what would happen next until it happened. It was a 22 hour event, Biden wasn't going to stand up and second guess what even the Russians didn't know was going to happen next. When the deal was struck, we learnt about it quickly and it ended quickly.
It's intelligence, not clairvoyance
Or their sources cant get information out that quickly. Or are just outside the inner circle that were in the loop during this crisis.
..
He seems to say that they would keep pushing carefully until they found a weak spot in the defences. Gap in the minefields somewhere they can't be in depth everywhere.
I understand the need to probe, but they not only have to find a gap in the mines, but find a gap which isn't covered by other forms of defence, or if it is covered by other forms, then comparatively weak forms. The Russians could conceivably have essentially mined every bit of open ground which sits between their defensive positions and advancing Ukrainian forces, especially if they themselves have no imminent intention of pressing forward on that front themselves, and in order to advance, Ukraine will simply have to clear a path, which makes it trickier to make a sudden drive at a point in the Russian lines which they believe to be weak.
Remember that:
The pressure will tell and the lines will collapse. First slow, then quick.😉
If I had to guess, I'd say the first serious gains will be around Bakhmut.
Which would be fittingly ironic.
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