Following on from
this thread
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After Mehole's farce in Galway, Varadkar straight out to the media desperately trying to show he's listening to the people's wishes about not joining NATO. That doesn't mean he still can't giving tax payers money to the weapons companies so we can "defend" ourselves at home and meet our "moral obligations" abroad. #anabundanceofweapons
New Poll and all I can say is WTF
I think SF are losing the anti immigrant vote to the right (Aontu and Independents) and losing votes to the left over their shifting positions on PESCO and PFP, the SCC and their climate policies in light of the nature restoration bill.
SF have voted in favour of the hate speech bill in the Dáil but against it in the Seanad, the ambiguity there might be having an effect.
They’ve also been largely silent on the neutrality debate and on the RTE scandal.
Both Mary Lou and Eoin O’Broin have been missing from the airwaves for a while now, EOB understandably as he’s recovering from a stroke but why is Mary Lou so silent?
Then you have the controversy over the IRA commemoration in Armagh.
Red C are also saying that SF seen a big increase in May on the back of the NI Local Election results and have now returned back to earth.
Lastly, I think FG in particular have stopped continuously attacking SF and have focused on the economy and tax cuts instead and that seems to be working.
SF are going to have a very delicate balance to strike on immigration. Their newer working class base is very much against it, but their more ideological left-wing base is for it. I don't know how they're going to square that circle medium-term.
They'll either lose the working class votes to INDs/Aontu/any new right wing/populist party that springs up, or they'll lose their ideological left votes to PBP/SocDems.
Anyone see Jimmy 3 dots ??
Where is Mary Lou?
I didn’t know that Eoin O’Broin suffered a stroke, I do wish Him a speedy and full recovery. As for Mary Lou, yes, her silence is deafening.
As for the RTÉ shenanigans? I’m guessing here but this poll was conducted prior to the proverbial hitting the fan, so I would guess this poll is ‘RTÉ free’.
Saying that, the RTÉ debacle & how the government handle the fallout will have an enormous effect on the next poll, such is the disgust out there to this misuse of taxpayers money.
I think SF are losing the anti immigrant vote to the right (Aontu and Independents)
They'll either lose the working class votes to INDs/Aontu/any new right wing/populist party that springs up
I see no sign that this is happening or good reason to believe it will...
Yep this poll would’ve been conducted just before the RTE story hit but SF have been silent on the issue so far.
No sign? They’ve fallen substantially in the polls over the past few months, peaked at 37% in October to now 29%…
A good reason? A lot of their working class base are anti immigrant and believed SF would curb immigration but are only realising of late that SF are even more pro immigration than the government.
You don't see the electoral conflict between a support base in working class areas that are regularly having well attended anti-migrant protests / are consistently polling as being very against more immigrants being moved into their areas, and SF party members vocally talking about welcoming more migrants?
They're two diametrically opposed viewpoints.
They’ve fallen substantially in the polls over the past few months
Where is the evidence that that vote is moving in a significant way to Aontu or Independents?
You don't see the electoral conflict between a support base in working class areas that are regularly having well attended anti-migrant protests
Most of these protests in 'working class' areas are in Dublin but I am not aware of any 'immigration-skeptic' independents in those areas who would have the faintest hope of winning a seat. There are independents in rural constituencies who have made critical noises about immigration policy, and most of those are likely to hold their seats, but their position on immigration is only a small part of their appeal and I see no prospect of a breakthrough for others whose primary focus is immigration.
There are protests all-around the country, they're regularly in the news.
There don't need to be specific anti-immigration candidates running against SF candidates for it to become an issue for the party. If a SF candidate in a working class area espouses a pro-immigration position it will cost them votes - even if theres no anti-immigration candidate to vote for, it will cause people who care about the issue (ie a large % of working class people according to polls) to just not vote for the SF candidate.
Voters staying at home and not voting is already a big problem in working class areas for SF, anything that increases this is hugely problematic.
Sinn Fein have recognised this.
Mary-Lou's recent contributions where she called for protests against the government not against immigrants and played the "more consultation required" card were clear attempts to play to the gallery on this issue.
I hear you but my own gripe with Mary Lou is her silence on the RTÉ debacle. I listen to radio 1 mostly ( one of the joys of having a rubbish radio in my van 😁 ) & I haven’t heard a word from Her on this. Must say Catherine Murphy has been interviewed a fair bit.
SF made their views clear when O Reilly showed up at the Ireland for All protest, now she had the woolly hat pulled down but an eagle eyed member of the public got a pic of her.
I still think they will steamroll over everyone else in the GE when it happens but will probably lose votes on the immigration issue because they hate being asked what their position is on it.
I‘ve had a feeling something’s been wrong for a while.
The pressure must be getting to them, many people have huge expectations on them not just to form the next government but to deliver on housing.
It’s not a great sign that two of their most important figures are struggling with health issues already, if this tweet was from Joe Biden everybody would be saying he’s not fit for office…
What a year for Simon Coveney:
Best friend Paul Hyde, ABP Deputy Chairman (I wonder how he got that job) pleaded guilty to criminal charges today
Brother, Rory Coveney on RTE exec board since 2011 (I wonder how he got that job) has been advisor to RTE's Dee Forbes throughout her now disgraced term
FG: the party of law and order, ROFL!
https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/6b22e-minister-mcentee-obtains-high-court-order-requiring-the-retention-of-data-for-state-security/
Seems like state overreach to me, I hope during question time in the dail some of the opposition tds ask questions and look for an explanation as to why this is necessary.
Like section 10 of the planned hate speech law, this move come across as guilty until proven Innocent .
I too took notice of that poll at the weekend and SF's decline.
I don't know to what extent their immigration policies are hurting them in working class areas but I know they are extremely vulnerable on it.
When was the last time you all met a stereotypical working class republican who was pro-immigration to the extent of the party leaders? I never have. These are the grassroot SF voters.
I think they are in real spot of bother.
Hogan threatened bully boy tactics to force us to pay for water. As we all know it failed. Now I read this yesterday:
UÉ still turn in a profit. Be very hard to believe anything our dictating politicians tell us.
UE is state owned. The profit is driven from water fees for companies. The profit will then be reinvested into the water system which is badly in need of repair.
With my limited knowledge this is a positive, we have companies paying for water system upgrades
He said that the surplus/profit generated by Uisce Éireann, together with necessary Government support in capital contributions of €454 million, was invested to fund critical infrastructure projects and enabled the successful delivery of a €1.06 million capital investment programme in 2022.
The bulk of the utility’s revenues is its annual subvention from government which increased from €893 million to €961 million last year.
It is making a profit because the state paid it nearly a billion. The subvention only came about when they got rid of domestic water charges. If there was still domestic water charges, there would be no subvention or it would be lower.
SF are in a spot of bother? I am no SF voter but let's look at the facts.
In 2010, FF and FG had 129 seats. SF had 4.
10 years later FF and FG got 73 seats. SF had 37.
They are now polling higher than any other party and I could see SF having more seats than FF+FG combined in 2025.
That's a spot of bother?
Sindo/Ireland Thinks poll June 30-July 1st
Sinn Fein 31 (-1)
Fine Gael 19 (-1)
Fianna Fail 19 (nc)
Independents/Others 13 (+1)
Social Democrats 6 (nc)
Solidarity-PBP 4 (+2)
Aontu 3 (nc)
Green Party 3 (nc)
Labour 2 (-1)
Sample 1.076, moe 3%
Wow, Bacik is in dire trouble going on these figures. Serves them right for the way they treated their core supporters since gilmore’s shenanigans.
Traitors to the Labour movement the lot of them.
EDIT: I heard on The Week in Politics that the percentages in this poll are the lowest ever for both FG & Labour.
I’m not qualified to say about FG but in Labour’s case, I’d say that they are heading the same way as the PD’s - oblivion. To say AONTÚ are higher than Labour says it all.
I thought Sinn Fein losing votes in the last poll was a timing factor because RTE wasn't out there. What's the excuse this week?
What do labour stand for anyway? i mean whatsdiffeeent about them vs the current govt.
The current government is in government and has ministerial portfolios. Labour has not and is jealous. Labour is even more Right wing than FG as had been demonstrated by the Water Tax and the medical cards issues. Labour betrayed its voters and its voters stopped voting for Labour.
Regards...jmcc
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