Oh it's always about the power and following the money concentrated in a few hands. But the US has control of private outfits like Blackwater. The very idea they'd run a potential coup/march for fairness towards Washington and then be all pardoned and never mind, with their leader in exile in Mexico with more cash mere hours later is beyond fantastical.
The missile strike by the Russian MoD on Wagner was clearly created by Wagner as a pretext to start the coup. As demonstrated by US intelligence, this insurgency was in the planning for weeks.
And, hey, the sister of the head of Blackwater was a cabinet officer in the government prior to Biden's! Extra goodies for the plot!
Honestly, who knows? They made some vague statement about gaining ground in the east but also that they had gained a village a week ago but were only announcing it now. I saw rumours that they had crossed the Dniepr in Kherson but haven't seen any evidence of that or heard anything more about it since.
Realistically it all happened so quickly - from start to finish in 24 hours that it's unlikely to have had any short-term effects on the front-lines that the UAF could take advantage of. Hopefully it has sewn long-term problems though that will manifest themselves in time.
With all the chaos yesterday, was Ukraine able to take advantage to make some more gains?
anyways...
Formal request for F-16 training was received by the US from the Dane's with regards to training Ukrainian F-16 pilots, during the week.
Assuming that were to be attempted (and we're really stretching the limits of possibility at that), Ukraine has had over a year to heavily fortify that whole flank virtually uncontested and plan. You don't even read anything about Russia firing long range weapons at those positions. Think of how little progress Russia made in its Winter offensive from the east, and then extrapolate that to a line where Ukrainian defences are extremely well established at this point and we can rightly conclude the much larger headache would be Prigozhin's.
Put it this way and outside a Russian context, imagine this:
The US has her own private military contractor force, Blackwater. What happened over the last few days would be like the head of Blackwater in the middle of I dunno the war in Afghanistan goes on social media bitching about Biden and the US military leadership. Then he gets his men to go marching towards Washington with his private army, on the way shooting down a couple of US helicopters and a plane, takes a major US logistics base with tanks, while Washington can’t seem to stop him and barricades the city putting trucks up as roadblocks. Biden then goes on national TV calling for severe punishments for the traitorous mutineers of Blackwater.
Then the Mexican PM calls the head of Blackwater and negotiates a peace and full pardon for him and Blackwater, while hinting at getting a few of the US generals sacked. And then quietly goes back to base. And Biden pardons them all.
And all this happens in a day.
If a Hollywood hack came up with that script he'd be laughed at. But that's what happened in Russia.
There are a number of indicators why this wasn't some PR stunt or false flag
a) his speech about lies to invade Ukraine. That's very blunt and anti Kremlin line
b) shooting down Russian helicopters etc
c) Russian media weren't prepared, no Kremlin PR spin immediately on TV. They were caught off guard too
d) civil unrest in towns enroute eg rostov. This gives fire to a cause.
e) the missile strike on Wagner group. It seems to be confirmed that it was Russian MoD that did it.
On the contrary, Prigozhin would be a very welcome guest in Kyiv. So welcome, they wouldn't let him leave.
Of course, he'd be on his own because his murderous mercenaries will be far away, dying from "friendly fire"
It also makes zero sense.
You might as well say "Ukraine hammering Moscow with dozens of Storm Shadows would be a headache for Putin".
It's not going to happen.
He went from publicly and directly calling it a mutiny, treason, an attack on Russia and the perpetrators would be dealt with severely, to pardons for all and exile for Prig within a matter of hours.
Why? He had no choice. He "panicked".
It seems 25,000 armed men can drive largely unhindered into the heart of Russia and capture the largest town in his "SMO". only it was in Russia... And putin was made painfully aware of this. As were any others looking in and thinking about their own private armies. Now Wagner would have likely lost if they got too close to Moscow. Unless they had the tacit support of Russia's airforce they would have been picked off on the outskirts. And even if they took Moscow what could they have done with it? However that putin couldn't rally enough internal Russian forces and had to call for the police and a handful of the Chechens speaks volumes about what's left in the kitty.
He now also faces a wider world problem. Wagner is in effect now dissolved. So how does he prosecute his interests and conflicts in Africa for example? Wagner was Russia's overseas force, in Africa, Syria and so on. It was Russia, but not really, never mind. It had some deniability and had a leader that was very close to the centre and putin himself. That's now kaput. The Wagner troops involved in this drive are pardoned, those who weren't involved can get contracts with the regular Russian army. A large percentage were involved so it seems though pardoned can't go into the regular army, so that's another loss of experienced fighting men.
Prig got his deal and no doubt a bag of cash for him and his men. Putin got a scare and a world looking on in disbelief and a weakened overall force and the loss of his overseas contractor army.
Yesterday, these storm Z convicts made a video backing Wagner, looks like theres gonna be a lot of payback from the regime
Prigozin going for Kyiv from the North would be a massive headache for Ukraine.
Where's the evidence that you're not a re-reg Putin-bot?
Putin made a show of himself yesterday. Good luck trying to defend him. The fact that he needed Luka to step in shows he more than panicked (or at least 1 of his doubles did).
Ukrainian LLVT destroyed 7 KAMAZ 5350 "Mustang" trucks along with ammunition of Russian invaders near the settlement of Novofedorivka, Zaporizhia region. 🔥 (+ another helicopter, reported today)
I don't think this was all part of an elaborate plan to get Belarus into the war by Prigozhin taking over there. I think if the Defense minister is still in place, then it's more likely Prigozhin was set up with false promises. The Defense Minister is the real winner here if you think about it ,he has gotten rid of his enemy and has one over on Putin at the same time. Which is funny because Putin likes playing people off each other, but may have been outplayed at his own game!
If you strike at the King, you must kill him.
Prigozhin was fighting a propaganda war against Russia's military leaders, particularly Shoigu and Gerasimov, for months. He was asking his "good friend" Putin to replace them but, instead, a decree was issued to induct the Wagner soldiers into the defence forces by the end of June. That would mean the end of the Wagner Group and Prigozhin suddenly understood that Putin had deserted him. Prigozhin decided to strike first and he held the incalculable advantage of surprise.
Why did he stop 150 miles from Moscow? Not because "Russian blood would be spilt". Prigozhin is a blood-thirsty monster.
My guess is that he stopped because
The deal he got looks like a nothing-burger. Putin has not confirmed it publicly so he is free to do whatever he can now to restore his authority. Shoigu and Gerasimov are keeping a low profile today, like their boss, but they are not gone. "All charges are dropped" - brilliant! And we'll wipe the penalty points on your licence, Yevgeny!. Prigozhin is in the hands of Lukashenko and we know what Lukashenko does to those to try to topple the leader. Dead man walking.
What comms system did Prigozhin use when negotiating this deal with Lukashanko? Were the Americans/Chinese/British eavesdropping? If they were, they will have learned much about Russia's bottom line for a deal in Ukraine.
In the end, it looks like a 21st. Century peasants' revolt where the King buys time with vague promises to the serfs until he can muster his army and string up their leaders. The King survives but - the good news- he has to cut back on foreign adventures.
He cut a deal with a rebel who attacked his army and shot down his airforce. These were acts of war. Putin backed down. He has absolutely shat the bed. Do you really need to see the sheets as evidence?
I really wonder now was it some Russian tactic. Cause panic and discord so it seems and then have prigozhin be shipped off to Belarus and probably let's be real here he could end up been in total control of Belarus when their president dies. This could of been what has been laid out. Have him as their leader then Belarus fully come into Russia proper. This might actually be worse case for Ukraine. With him there if this war drags on into next year you might see Wagner troops on the border of Ukraine or just a different name that he has set up and Ukraine hs to worry about attacks again from there. With him going to Belarus it is probably giving Ukraine a headache of what might be to come.
Disillusioned soldier's let them travel unchecked through much of the route to Russia.
What were the Wagner grunts rallying behind? One man's personal agenda or a genuine belief that a regime change was at hand? Or just doing what they're boss tells them? Will they really be subsumed into the already disillusioned ranks? The army certainly need the numbers but I can't see how the majority of them seeing their lot improving thanks to the deal Prigorzhin cut. Will they take much convincing to rally again?
Lots of questions. I can't see it all just going back to happy families either way.
Where's the evidence Putin panicked? Evidence now please not heresay.
...
The Fighterbomber Telegram channel, which has close ties to Russia's military aviation community, claims that "Millerovo military airfield is still under complete control of Wagner PMC, as is Rostov airfield and the PKP VKS [(Russian Aerospace Forces' forward command post)]."
Prigozhin certainly won't be on gardening leave would not be surprised in the least if he back attacking Ukraine with some sort of group .
The whole thing is truly bizarre. I'm sure we'll have rumours now of it being a false flag operation so Putin can show the country: it's either me or anarchy.
Who knows what the hell the truth is.
But when people yesterday were saying Putin is gone and fled to Kazakhstan I did say: let's not get too excited yet, give it a day or two. And was proved right. Things can change very quickly in the era of instant news
Guardian even suggesting Prigozhin may regroup with fighters in Belarus and attempt to attack Kyiv, that this story may not be over....
They have been a laughing stock for years
We don't really know that 25,000 armed men couldn't pull it off because Putin evidently panicked and negotiated with them, or rather their leader Prigozhin. Had that negotiation not taken place, god knows what the situation would have been.
Whatever the terms of the negotiations were, I should think they were ones which made heavy promises about Prigozhin's security, otherwise he's hardly going to agree to move to Belarus - a place where he could be picked up at any moment by Russian security forces.
Regular Russians are powerless. If 25,000 heavily armed men couldn’t pull it off they certainly can’t. It will take a 1917 type eastern front mutiny. Russian soldiers themselves will have to down tools and refuse to continue the war. Something that is very much a possibility and maybe the events of yesterday is a significant step on the road to that eventuality. Wagner have shown that it can be done. Let’s face it conditions are not going to improve for Russian soldiers and if anything will get worse. The Russian army itself now has to do the meatgrinding.
Good to see Putin is stil, in some kind of control... the World is a bit safer compared to 24h ago
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