All this western analysis of what happened in the last 36hrs and indeed over the last 8 years in Ukraine is pointless, we all know that the war was a fools errand and an ego trip by Putin. Its not until regular russians start realising it and pushing back will change happen. Whether it even registers with them what happened yesterday remains to be seen.
Last paragraph of the above piece sums up things nicely
"Moreover, Mr Prigozhin has also punctured Mr Putin’s rationale for war. In a video posted on June 23rd he rubbished Russian claims that Ukraine had bombed the Donbas region for eight years and that Ukraine and nato intended to attack Russia. The war, he said, was in fact launched for the benefit of Russia’s “oligarchic elite”. That might prompt unsettling questions among Russia’s rank-and-file. “Who,” asks John Foreman, British defence attaché in Moscow until recently, “would want to fight on for a Russian regime which has shown such weakness, declaring a mutiny and then rowing back within the day?"
I think time will show Prigozhins move will be the catalsyt that was needed cause change in Russia.
Feel sorry for the people of Belarus, they must have got a taste of freedom. Now their president has even more backup
I'd love to know if these guys have any idea what a laughing stock they've become.
US intelligence now claiming they had wind of this several days ago and a catalyst was an order from Shoigu etc for units of Wagner to change their contracts to MOD.
Whatever the Russian civilian population will be rattled by all this.
Hopefully , with everybody eyes firmly on Russia (reporters/vlogers /Russian commanders Fsb etc)over the last 48 hrs , has enabled the Ukrainians to make some bold unreported moves .
It would be great if we get some major Ukrainian breakthrough reports soon .
Sure. Sure. Prigozhin getting his freedom…
Was it a dream, or did Prigozhin really attack and kill Russians on Russian soil, and then get a star prize of an all expensive paid trip to Belarus.
We don't know what really was going on behind the scenes. Prigoz might presumably have been banking on support that never materialised. The whole thing seems incredibly illogical from an outside perspective but there was logic behind the move, it obviously didn't work out as hoped.
Bit of an Operation Valkyrie basically.
Regardless whole thing is a massive embarrassment to Putin.
Keep it above 1.6 mm and you will be fine...
Any joker with 25k lunatics behind them now knows they can march on Moscow virtually unopposed. That'll surely embolden others, maybe even the Chinese because there'll be even fewer defenders on the eastern borders. There's sod all Russian army worth a damn in Ukraine and even less in Russia.
Putin is at his weakest ever if the likes of Lukashenko can talk him into a deal. He looks like the schoolyard bully who got beaten by a little girl, after calling her every name under the sun and needed teacher to intervene. Tomorrow he'll pretend like nothing happened but everyone will know...
I don't think it's the end of it. I think Prigozhin is buying time. In their culture the better you lie, the smarter you are. It is something to be proud of.
But there is no civil war.
Can't trust any of the sources and any reliable history is going to need plenty of time and a change of regime that allows open access to records. Even then it'll have gaps. There was a window of opportunity for Western historical researchers when the USSR fell but Putin made things difficult again.
Either it was a coke and vodka fueled “look at me” or he was promised support that didn’t materialize.
Obviously there maybe be another option.
ya nothing raises moral in a flea bitten army than hearing your country is in civil war. how wouldn't it favour Ukraine? try harder skin
Incorrect. It is not a disaster.
In the very worst case:
Yes its not the beginning of the end of the war we were all hoping for. But it required no input from Ukraine at all and honestly if I were a betting man I would bet we haven't seen the tail end of this bizarre day play out yet.
So, anyone want to take a guess at the next thing to happen? I'm going to go with Putin fighting Prigozhin in a cage match to decide which of them leads the parade at Moscow Pride 2023.
It doesn't it's a disaster for Ukraine. If this rumbled on the days or weeks they could have made their move as the counter offensive looks to be not going as expected. Now all the focus is back on the war.
He absolutely did not end the day in a stronger position. His government had to come to terms with Prigozhin's demands. They say you don't negotiate with terrorists, and Wagner were that for Putin this last day and yet he did negotiate with them. He now has a good picture of what happens if an internal enemy marches toward Moscow and it isn't that the people rally around Putin. They bring the rebels drinks and snacks. Putin now has to be very worried that if his power is directly challenged again, he will be totally isolated.
But will soldiers on the frontline now see there is no point downing arms as it will get you nowhere?
I don’t see how any of this works in Ukraines favour.
ya no amount of propaganda can fix putins position now he's a lesser carnivore now in a hungry jungle
Well that was the nuttiest 24hrs I've witnessed in my lifetime. If the writers on cornation Street came up with that they'd crumple it up and throw it in the bin for being too ridiculous.
Any wagernites or Russian defectors must feel very let down tonight. They've been left right in the shìt and will now always be looking over their shoulder for retribution. This will have done untold damage to the war effort on the frontline
That’s why the entire thing doesn’t make sense. Up to Wagner walking toward Moscow, I could understand it. But then?! Surreal.
I mean Prigozhin knows very well how it works in Russia. What could they possibly offer to him that made him stop. What guarantees did it get that he wouldn’t be killed? He is leaving his soldiers hanging dry as well. Very bizarre. Trying to make sense of it is like trying to fit a 10” ball in a 5” square hole.
To be it feels like he's weakened. We definitely seen glimpses there is adversity lying in the general population and some of his army outside of Wagner.
I wouldn't feel to safe if I was him.
That seems a very good analysis. It's hard not to imagine that Putin hasn't been hugely damaged by all this - there are literally no positives for him.
Say what you want about Putin he started the day looking like he was about to lose power and ended it in a stronger position with the pretender banished to Belarus.
He's like that one turd that won't flush.
The Master of the Kremlin had to make a deal with a convict—again, in Putin’s culture, among the lowest of the low—just to avert the shock and embarrassment of an armed march into the Russian capital while other Russians are fighting on the front lines in Ukraine.
Prigozhin drew blood and then walked away from a man who never, ever lets such a personal offense go unavenged. Putin, however, may have had no choice, which is yet another sign of his precarious situation. All of the options were terrifying: Ordering the Russian military to attack armed Russian men would have been a huge risk, especially because those men (and their hatred of the bureaucrats at the Defense Ministry) have at least some support among Russia’s officers and political elites. Killing Prigrozhin outright was also a high-risk proposition: With their leader dead and the Russian military closing in, the Wagnerites might have decided to fight to the death.
This wound to Putin’s power goes deep, but how deep is difficult to gauge for now, especially since we do not know whether Shoigu or Gerasimov still have their jobs. And while the rebellion has taken Wagner off the field in Ukraine, Putin may still seek to cover this ignominious effort by escalating Russia’s brutality there. But two things appear certain. First, Putin has suffered a huge political blow, and he has survived by making deals both with Prigozhin and his own colleagues in the Kremlin that are, by any definition, a humiliation. And second, Yevgeny Prigozhin has changed the Russian political environment surrounding Putin’s war in Ukraine.
The end of a piece in The Atlantic by Tom Nichols
nah the fsb aren't all that it's a myth pushed by popular culture. russia has been reduced to a few blisters of local powers.
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