Anyone know what's up with Lukashenko? I heard he flew out of the country but also that Putin rang him today (along with the other CSTO leaders). That story has really fallen by the wayside today with everything that is going on.
Big convoys of Russian military BTR's and mil trucks were seen en route there 6 hrs ago. It's likely they have the manpower. The real question is their loyalty to Shoigu and co, which is where Prigozhin's real beef is.
Reports of load of RU forces have switched sides.
Could Prigozhin be backed by some disgruntled people within in the military as well as outside actors. Either way whatever the case, this will only embolden others to try if Prigozhin is not made an example of.
From the Russian press just now:
Putin signed a law allowing detention for 30 days for violating martial law.
This is what they are really afraid of, the whole thing spilling over into civil unrest and anti-government protests.
As mentioned I'll be amazed if Prigozhin lasts more than 48 hours.
Kadyrov publicly backing Putin but I reckon if Wagner looks like it will succeed they'd join them. This could be their last chance to free their regions from Moscow rule.
Rumours Wagner is emptying prisons to sign up more soldiers and that' many regular Russian units are joining them. There's **** all between Wagner and Moscow and they've all the air defence they need. If ten's of thousands of Wagner soldiers enter Moscow would you bet against them?
If Putin flea's it will probably fall. The best thing for Ukraine is if Putin is forced to pull his army from Ukraine to save himself. The worst thing to happen would be Wagner taking over easily. You never know if he'd end or continue the war but my money is he'll end and be happy with being president.
Also, I suspect, martial law coming soon
You'd imagine Putin would have specifically ordered enough troops and equipment be kept in reserve to quell any sort of internal revolt that might happen. Not saying those orders were followed or well-executed, though.
Chechnya and Georgia would probably need popular uprisings for anything to happen as both are ruled by Moscow friendly regimes.
I think China entering the fray is a real long shot. They don't like to take rash actions and wouldn't want to get into potential nuclear brinksmanship with whoever the hell ends up in charge of the Russian nuclear arsenal.
It's very interesting that Prigozhin is criticising the invasion of Ukraine and saying it was a mistake. That's good news from Ukraine's point of view and greatly increases the chances of the war ending quickly if Putin is toppled.
See my post just above.
Prigozhin surely has an end game in mind. Remove the generals and install himself as the power behind Putin or does he have backers in the "russian government" who are keeping in the background until they see how things play out.
Hard to believe the owner of a PMC can take control of Russia but it's been a rollercoaster coaster of a weekend and it's only a little after lunchtime Saturday.
I need clarification on this - is he saying that it was a mistake to invade Ukraine, or is he saying that the execution of the invasion was mistaken?
Looks like maybe some kind of blockade being prepared in central St. Petersburg. (At the crossing with the police van)
Maybe they are expecting the worst there too?
Well yeah, if Kadyrov goes head to had with Wagner they'll be weaker and the potential for an insurgency rises. If there's a collapse of military control in Russia I can't see Georgia not taking back what's theirs even with a slightly friendly to Russia government. Same with China, if Russia collapses they'll need China for economic growth they'll not be in a position to contest.
All diplomatic bets are off should Russia collapse.
The former it would appear.
The Wagner head, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has accused Moscow’s leadership of lying to the public about the justifications for invading Ukraine, in the latest sign of conflict between Vladimir Putin’s government and one of his most important allies.
In an explosive 30-minute video posted on his Telegram channel, Prigozhin dismissed Moscow’s claims that Kyiv was planning to launch an offensive on the Russian-controlled territories in eastern Ukraine in February 2022.
“There was nothing extraordinary happening on the eve of February 24,” Prigozhin said.
“The ministry of defence is trying to deceive the public and the president and spin the story that there was insane levels of aggression from the Ukrainian side and that they were going to attack us together with the whole Nato block,” the Wagner head said.
Shortly after Russia attacked Ukraine, Putin claimed Moscow’s invasion had thwarted Ukraine’s own plans for “a massive attack on the Donbas, and then on the Crimea”.
Prigozhin also said Russia’s leadership could have avoided the war by negotiating with Ukraine’s president, Volodomyr Zelenskiy.
“When Zelenskiy became president, he was ready for agreements. All that needed to be done was to get off Mount Olympus and negotiate with him,” he said.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/23/wagner-chief-accuses-moscow-of-lying-to-public-about-ukraine-yevgeny-prigozhin
My understanding was that he said the reasons given for invading Ukraine were lies
Chechen's en-route to Rostov apparently
China is the one to watch. They'll be like a dog sniffing around this weakness from Russia.
The big annual "Scarlet Sails" festival starts in St. Petersburg today. Could be related to that. Putin, Medvedev and other senior politicians were due to attend.
I would say everything is set up to overthrow Putin and he knows it. The war has been a complete disaster with ordinary Russians suffering massively. This wasn't planned overnight. Ultimately can see the Russian army folding with many joining the Wagner group.
Ah alright.
This is about to kick off
He's gonna need a bigger carrot than that. Anyone part of Wagner from Rostov to Moscow will see that Putin is on the back foot.
The former in fact, which is very significant : he says there was no justification for attacking Ukraine on February 24th last year.
To fight or to join the wagner? Thats the question
Should the US or Nato takeout Wagner on Russian soil.
Storm-Z, the convict force, have joined Prighozin. Also the 22nd Special Forces Brigade, and there's been an unconfirmed report that Wagner have entered the prisons in Rostov and are recruiting.
A lot comes down to how many forces Russia actually has in Russia that can react in time, it took them a long time to deal with the Russian legion invasions and that was 1-2k not 25k.
Maybe the US/NATO have gotten to Prighozin and he's got the green light to take Putin out?
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