Also, I suspect, martial law coming soon
Kadyrov publicly backing Putin but I reckon if Wagner looks like it will succeed they'd join them. This could be their last chance to free their regions from Moscow rule.
Rumours Wagner is emptying prisons to sign up more soldiers and that' many regular Russian units are joining them. There's **** all between Wagner and Moscow and they've all the air defence they need. If ten's of thousands of Wagner soldiers enter Moscow would you bet against them?
If Putin flea's it will probably fall. The best thing for Ukraine is if Putin is forced to pull his army from Ukraine to save himself. The worst thing to happen would be Wagner taking over easily. You never know if he'd end or continue the war but my money is he'll end and be happy with being president.
As mentioned I'll be amazed if Prigozhin lasts more than 48 hours.
From the Russian press just now:
Putin signed a law allowing detention for 30 days for violating martial law.
This is what they are really afraid of, the whole thing spilling over into civil unrest and anti-government protests.
Could Prigozhin be backed by some disgruntled people within in the military as well as outside actors. Either way whatever the case, this will only embolden others to try if Prigozhin is not made an example of.
Reports of load of RU forces have switched sides.
Big convoys of Russian military BTR's and mil trucks were seen en route there 6 hrs ago. It's likely they have the manpower. The real question is their loyalty to Shoigu and co, which is where Prigozhin's real beef is.
Anyone know what's up with Lukashenko? I heard he flew out of the country but also that Putin rang him today (along with the other CSTO leaders). That story has really fallen by the wayside today with everything that is going on.
I heard Zelensky's gonna be addressing a special sitting at the UN later, calling for emergency supplies of popcorn.
Would Moscow even have much to defend itself? All the big weaponry is down south. Their military parade was a shambles with 1 tank and the Airforce doesn't seem to be too interested in stopping the convoy.
Single glazing shares down / popcorn shares up.
I'd hate to be a Russian soldier in Ukraine in general but today seems like a particularly bad day.
Chechnya, Georgia, republics in general are all up for grabs if this keeps going. I've said it before but is not outside the realm of possibility of China taking control of lands they still claim to "protect the Chinese population" there.
Clearly the situation would still be a diplomatic and military mess even if Putin's regime is toppled, but the chances of the war with Ukraine ending soon would be much, much higher. We always wondered if some dramatic event might happen that could bring about a quick end to the war.
https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1672548069584371712?s=20
Rybar claiming Wagner are now at Yelets (still in Lipetsk oblast):
from the Guardian:
Flights from Moscow have reportedly sold out as the Wagner mercenary group approach.
Der Spiegel has reported that tickets for direct connections from Moscow to Tbilisi, Astana and Istanbul are no longer available.
Google Maps is showing road closures on the M4 south of Moscow, the route the Wagner rebels are taking.
What ever the outcome of this Coup, the Russian army and Wagner will never be the same. It will be in a much worse state (if that was even possible)
Ukraine must be licking their lips
If true… that’s fully mental, that would mean total chaos
Yep they're on the way alright.
Massive pinch of salt again, but if true, this is some warped Spartacus ****
Presumably because they haven't been instructed on what the message is yet.
Overall, this is good news for Ukraine. Anything that might mean a change of regime (or serious weakening of it) would undoubtedly speed up the end of the war. I think there was a growing realisation in Russia that the war was already lost and that Ukraine could not be defeated.
I won't be surprised if he bolts for somewhere the regime in Myanmar.
I don't believe the general public support the government by choice.
Just like in Belgorod..
Apparently, allegedly, pinch of salt, but a Wagner column of several hundred vehicles has reached Lipetsk, which is 6 hours drive from Moscow
It won't. We're getting pretty ahead of ourselves, here. Even if it were a possibility, Putin's not going to put himself within that kind of geographical proximity to his NATO enemies. He'd be petrified of CIA assets coming to kill him, and only needing to traverse a small amount of territory to do it.
In fairness too, the war in Ukraine has been an effective stalemate for the last six months or so : intense fighting around Bakhmut, but not much happening politically or diplomatically. There hasn't been a huge amount of news to discuss on a daily basis.
I was posting last night ! I am now officially requesting NightMaster privileges.
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