A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

I was concerned about Europe freezing due to the research from the Economist which is probably one of the most respected journals in the world and a link was provided to that claim, it was not my claim. As you may remember the projections were based on 3 scenario's depending on mild, average or severe temperatures in Europe.

Thankfully we had the second warmest winter ever on record this year and the 600 billion of energy subsidies that governments forked out for prior to Winter will of saved many lives.

Unfortunately the Economist claims that 68,000 people in Europe still died due to high energy prices. If you believe them or not get in touch with them and explain to them why they are wrong not me.

Eurozone CPI for May

I read Ray Dalios book on the changing world order, pretty much what you said is exactly how he invests and makes hedges money. His hedge fund made a computer programme that takes into account pretty much all of what you said. All the leading indicators according to him is that we are in the middle of an inflection point and the next 10-15 years looks like there will be greater geopolitical and domestic conflicts due to these widening wealth gaps and the middle class becoming the poor class. He says in all cases going back to the Ming denisty in China even major change was preceded by major conflict either internally or externally.

Anyway hees at this since this 80s so obviously way ahead of his time

“inflation also makes debt management easier by reducing interest rates on loans or mortgages and encouraging people to spend their cash; “

Really!!!!!

I have heard it all now….Don’t think there is much to say about this quote unless it was written as satire and I totally missed the point. If I am reading this as it reads and you haven’t deleted part of the quote in error or genuinely omitted something about wage increases off the back of inflation then my 10 year old kid has a better understanding of the topic than you.

It looks like UK & Ireland are in the same boat. Now i understand why Finland take so much interest in the Euribor rate.

No wonder some people are concerned.

There's no problem with making that sort assumption (rational actors with all information/or "homo economicus" as I think it is called) as such (IMO).

I do kind of think that economics has been guilty of obscuring the assumptions it makes by using a load of very complex maths and ideas from physics and then people think it is somehow similar to these 2 fields...it isn't.

It is dealing with humans and human societies at the end of day, they are very, very complicated and unpredictible things vs the cleaner and less messy "world" mathematicians and physicists inhabit.

It is very hard (impossible?) for them to do proper controlled experiments, and also very hard to develop over-arching models without big simpilifications.

Yes. I don't know much about economics, but I think those may be actually the older ideas (!) (rather than the modern). The newer stuff, like behavioural economics or using computer simulations ("agent based" models), has been trying to add more of the real human complexity and grey areas as best they can. Regardless, agree it isn't really a "science" in the way physics or the like is.

Take me for example after 10 pints of porter you'd be amazed how irrational and even more stupid thinking I can be

New Zealand enters recession as 5.5% interest rates start to take effect. Australian and Canadian central banks also restarted hiking last week after a few months pause.

And what is the significance of this or why is this news?

How has your post got anything to do with the TLRO maturing…

my point was that this isn’t anything new because as soon as it was drawn down by banks they knew when and how much needed to be repaid.