Russia may also have advised on their red lines too ... and if they think the 'severe punishment' is on a par with the 'killer blow' some people wish Ukraine to deliver. Well, why wait?
sorry link doesn't appear for some reason
@odyssey06 Russia is nuclear and WMD armed and if it thinks it is danger of suffering a 'killer blow' from Ukraine or NATO may resort to their use.
The west has had high level meetings with the Russians and they warned them that if they use certain weapons they will be severely punished. What those punishments are we don't know but Russia will lose the war for sure if they use those weapons.
Really interesting if true
Of course it's capable of change. Russia is blessed with a massive wealth of resources that should make it one of the wealthiest nations on earth, instead power and wealth is hoarded by a selfish few. They just need leadership no different than any other nation on earth. Russians seem to be painted by some on here as a type of monster, ive seen the word orc used to describe them for instance but this is pure hogwash and nonsensical.
Hard to believe that Uke has ,to some extent , the same strategy/philosophy re conducting a war/battle. I thought that Uke with much, much, much less soldiers and equipment were able to shu The Russians out of Kiev and work them ALLthe way back to the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. And Uke is , IMO, deeply aware that it must use what it has very sparingly and economically .
I wonder what would the Americans do DIFFERENTLY if it was in Ukrain’s shoes with the same manpower and equipment or for that matter France, Germany Spain, etc.?
Poland is spending far more on advanced and proven precision systems like F35, Himars than on artillery systems, and its unclear what ammunition is going to be purchased for the K9s, most probably guided and/or extended range shells.
The point being that NATO does not share the same philosophy that Russia, and to a lesser extent Ukraine, do, which is that you get massive amounts of shells and you destroy vast areas in the hopes of hitting something of military value. GMLRS rockets, together with superior ISR, has been able to seriously hamper Russian logistics, and if Ukraine had a NATO airforce their logistics would be completely destroyed.
In a hypothetical war between Russia and Poland, Poland would not make and fire 50,000 shells or whatever it is the Russians do, because they wouldnt need to.
So I disagree that the failure to produce enough shells is due to slow European decision making. Its because European armies simply dont expect to expend such vast amounts of unguided shells in future conflicts. Maybe they should, and thats a separate argument in a way, certainly they have relied on US stockpiles a bit too much, but they just dont want or need vast amounts of unguided shells, any more than they dont want or need millions of bayonettes!
A good analogy would be if Australia made a promise to provide winter gear to Ukraine. They would struggle to fulfill any pledges because they just dont need winter gear themselves, and when the wars over its not simply a case of pressing a button to stop the production line.
If you still dont believe me, think about this - if you were Mateusz Morawiecki would you rather use those billions of Zloti to set up a huge factory in Poland to make dumb munitions, employing thousands of Polish people and giving you defense autonomy, or would you rather give it to US, Korean and German manufacturers?
Merkava tanks maybe on the way (or used as backfill to allow other tanks to be sent to Ukraine)
I think there are two possibilities why they hold back certain weapons: first, out of fear of provoking a nuclear state (which you acknowledge), and second because Russia bogged down in a long war may be better than Russia swiftly defeated and regrouping for the next attack.
I suspect both factors play their role.
You disagree on the second point - fine. History may one day clear up the debate. For now we know only that the US could offer much more military help than it chooses to.
It reveals nothing - "they're hardly going to state the real reasons in a press conference". So there you go.
Just that you viewed the press conference through the prism of an already held opinion.
You were unable to support your claims with direct reference to the press conference. Which proves my point. I didn't dodge your question, I was sticking to the main point.
And besides, if they were about to give some new weapons -> they'd hardly give any hints of that in a press conference. Catch 22.
As for your question, you have expressed a wish to Russia to be 'destroyed' and rebuilt like Japan and Germany after WWII. Your posts seem to ignore the geopolitical reality that Russia is nuclear and WMD armed and if it thinks it is danger of suffering a 'killer blow' from Ukraine or NATO may resort to their use.
On top of that, I can imagine a whole host of reasons why certain weapons are held back -> fears of advanced systems falling into Russian hands, shortage of equipment, need to keep reserve for other threats, complexity of training, logistics, supply.
I don't think it reflects some conspiracy / agenda to deliberately draw out the war. If I'm to be convinced of that, need a lot more.
So I will take the comments at face value.
They just said hundreds of short range anti aircraft missiles.
Would the absolute same go for any other announcement from any country supplying arms/equipment to UKr. Does it not make perfect sense if only for the element of surprise. Such countries could also say that they will supply B52 bombers- only to be used within the Ukr - but never supply them. Done just to put the ‘shirt ‘ up the Russians. Sure is not Putin already doing it with his nuclear arms - we don’t know how many he has , where they are and would they even fire , how well are they maintained. He was all Shock and Awe at the start of the Special Mission Operation . He threatened any county that was even thinking about helping Ukr
Neither the media report
Nor the official joint statement by Denmark, the Netherlands, the UK and the USA give specific details
The Denmark, the Netherlands, and the UK defence ministries and the United States Department of Defense today announced that they are partnering together to deliver high priority air defence equipment to Ukraine, addressing its most urgent air defence requirements as Russia continues its brazen missile and drone attacks against Ukrainian cities.
The initiative will deliver hundreds of short and medium range air defence missiles and associated systems required to protect Ukraine’s critical national infrastructure and further ensure the success of counter-offensive operations in coming months. Delivery of the equipment has already begun and should be complete within several weeks.
The initiative was announced ahead of the June 15, 2023 meeting of the U.S.-led Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) in Brussels, Belgium. The UDCG brings together some 50 nations providing a variety of military support to Ukraine.
This war has been going on since 2014, when russian proxies were in a "civil war" in Ukraine.
It can go on a lot longer still, until US/NATO give Ukraine enough to end it - they are still dragging their feet and giving the bare minimum of arms to Ukraine.
It wont end this summer with the Crimea beach party, and I'd be surprised if it ended by christmas 23 either.
All I said is that America's long haul claim shows they are not likely i.e. not willing to give Ukraine what it needs to deliver a killer blow in the near term. you dodging my question shows you have no valid counter argument and so presumably agree. They're hardly going to state the real reasons in a press conference. It's still a revealing remark
Fair enough. I'd also like to see the current Russian regime and its enablers destroyed and brought to justice and a more enlightened Russia emerge, as happened with Germany and Japan post WW2.
Any idea what kind of missiles? They have shoulder launched and vehicle mounted starstreak and stingers already.
Sky News reports that the west is giving short range anti aircraft missiles. No doubt this is to counter the Russian helicopters. Better late than never...
maybe it was free demo demonstration. ;)
You couldn't rule it out. Like when James Cleverly announced that the UK had finally decided to supply Storm Shadows. Less than 24 hours later, while everyone was wondering how long it would take to train, modify aircraft etc, the Ukrainians were already hitting Russian targets with Storm Shadows. Clearly the decision had been made many months before the announcement.
The start of the Robotyne push has been a little disappointing for sure but I'm starting to see whispers that they've made progress into Novopokrovka (Northweast of Robotyne).
Yes, we kinda gathered that from your various postings over the full course of this thread.
Question that has been raised though, is Russian society capable of change or condemned to support autocracy and the strong man mentality forever.
Part of me still wonders if NATO have been cheeky feckers here and had actaully started all of this secretly the guts of a year ago. Maybe even have some fully trained Ukrainian F16 pilots, and their F16s suddenly start to appear in Ukriane in a couple of weeks, all while the Russians are led to believe that nothing had started yet.
I base all of that on little more than a gut feeling, but would be a rather nice surprise (or horrific shock if you're Russian) to see F16s as part of this offensive.
They might ask another, even more awkward, question:
"where did the money go and who has it?"
This is ultimately the reason why Putin started this war.
Poland and other Eastern Bloc states have done very well out of the EU and their living standards and wealth have increased incredibly over the last 20 years. In another 10-20 years, these Eastern bloc states will be on par with the older Western EU states in terms of living standards, wages, wealth and so on.
Ukraine looked and this and went, "Why cant we get a part of this pie?"
Well, Putin and Russia are the answer to that. You cannot let countries like Ukraine and Belarus into the Western fold and get rich, democratic, liberal and wealthy.
Why?
Because every day Russian may then ask uncomfortable questions about their own country when they see Ukraine and Belarus doing well.
The average Russian 'should' have one of the best living standards of anyone in the world. The country is massive, has unreal natural resources, they are a clever, intelligent bunch in many areas, so why do so many live in poverty?
There is something uniquely Russian that holds them back imo.
Best news of the day.
I am sure behind-the-scenes work is being carried out on those F-16s.
The one thing they have in common with Russia is a pretty virulent form of nationalism (that frequently manifests as xenophobia).
Plus a political class that finds it expedient to whip up anti-Western sentiment occasionally, even though their economy is wholly integrated into the western world's - to their great benefit.
I don't want to see Russia "destroyed". Anyone wanting such a thing in a country with a nuclear arsenal isn't thinking logically. I'd like to see Putin and his cronies removed and put on trial in the Hague and Ukraine's borders returned but the Russian people in general i want to see prosper and be free from the mafia state.
They don't necessarily have to reach the coast. Anything from 20km from the coast should be good enough, as then all their road and rail supplies East-West come under artillery fire.
If they can, and it's a big if, knock the Kerch Bridge out of action for a long period of time, it might be game over for anything West of the Ukrainians.
Poor guys. they will be in for a surprise once they learn what kind of monster they are cheering up to.
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