"What is your overall impression or forecast on how things will go, looking at all the available data and reports of the offensive so far."
Looks like Ukraine did make a bit of progress on territory without committing the bulk of their armour and have now got a better fix on how the moskovytes are going to try defend the territory they have occupied. There were a couple of days when there was a spike in reported casualties of the moskovytes from the Ukrainian side followed by a drop in more recent days but a continued good level of moskovyte artillery destruction and there may be a pause in the offensive to some extent so the best way forward can be calculated. Too early to make any sort of forecast in my opinion but with more moderne weapons being sent to Ukraine looking to continue indefinitely I think its just a mater of how laong the moskovytes can hang on before they are forced to surrender, are turned to fertiliser or putin is forced out of power and someone willing to cut the moskovyte losses and negotiate their withdrawal comes into power.
B1 heading to the Black Sea today.
Yes and perhaps that it how this will develop further. Ukrainian tactics may be to make the current moves, take the losses and whatever gains until it becomes very obvious that others need to step in. And that is how this war will develop and escalate.
Presumably NATO/ Allies thinking is how to defeat Russia with slow and progressive escalation, whilst not frightening the horses and having the situation blow up to a wider destructive level.
Poland has already said they would go to Ukraines aid if it looked like Russia were going to win,
They may well need some extra support at some stage, think why have they only been given limited weapons such as the HiMars, while other countries are snapping them up in Large numbers Ukraine still only has a handful,they wanted at least 300 modern Western tanks,the biggest number they are getting 100+ is older leopard 1 tanks and just over 100 IFVs and some Mobile artillery, yes they received a few months of Nato training but they are expected to fight like Nato with Combined Arms Operations without the resources, weapons,and vehicles to Carry out effective combined arms with their hands tied behind their backs and with their shoe laces tied together,
You can't fight like Nato when your not part of Nato
From the videos earlier.
Honest question. If Ukraine had modern NATO fighter jets how would they use them to their advantage? Could they take out Russia's various anti-aircraft equipment such as BUKs and S-300/400s from a safe distance? Then when they're all gone they could just fly over all sorts of artillery, radar, command posts, tanks etc and take them out at will, thereby easing the way for ground forces? Is it all as simple as that?
Really going after the Russian Army leadership.
As an aside, have the GLSDB's been delivered yet? There was a lot of talk about them back in March, when it was announced that Ukraine was going to get them, but little else since.
We just don't know do we: what is happening really at the front lines, behind the front lines, what is being said by back channels and so on. Ukraine may be leaning heavily on the US at the moment but remember too there are other adjacent states with irons in this fire - Poland, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania and Finland. Some or all may well step in yet if things start going south as you say, they'd do this unilaterally or as a group outside of NATO presumably.
I think the current Ukrainian Army can only do so much.
Without Western Jets, they are fighting with one hand tied behind their backs. They might be able to land a good few jabs but a knockout blow seems unlikely.
Perhaps this is now dawning on policymakers and the Ukrainians themselves.
Expediting the delivery and training of Western fighter Jets should be the 1st priority of this war. With this, they may establish some air superiority in the conflict zones, making the job of the Army much easier.
Otherwise, its just a war of attrition, which just ends in stalemate imo.
Looks like Russia lost the 5x 152mm mobile artillery in a single field and potentially 2 tanks also
Casualties (this "orc" business is childish) vary depending on munition type and target but historically survival rates tend to be between 50-80% of a destroyed vehicle. That doesn't mean "uninjured", though.
Good video here:
Interesting, they seem to be targeting their mobile artillery.
Hmm. I've been an extremely positive commentator on this thread for over a year now. I'm following the war through many channels, good and bad, to try to filter out the nonsense and doing as much OSINT research as only one can in a country many miles from a war to which I have zero connection with.
We simply do not really know what's going on nor will we, in any detail. Let's leave that to historians. However, for the first time I'm starting to feel doubt creeping in as to Ukraines ability to win. The US has never actually stated that they want Ukraine to win. Which is a very big psychological wall. They want them in a position to give the Russians a good beating, with the attrition of Russian forces a huge advantage for the US, at a fraction of the cost. But win outright? I'm not so sure now.
I suspect Ukraines initial losses are much worse than we think they are in this initial push. The Russians are sneaky buggers. Fanatical lunatics capable of the most inhumane actions. Sure, single strand Cold War tactics won't cut it on the modern battlefield, but sometimes pure brutish force and numbers can, and I fear this will be the hill that Ukraine may fall on.
Unless Ukraine has some outside the box/left field tactics or inventive attacks up their sleeves, while interpreting the NATO supplied intelligence correctly, I am beginning to think that this offensive is a stretch too far, especially without Air Support or enemy aircraft denial.
My worry is that, if things begin to go south for this offensive, an action may be taken by Ukraine, painted to look like a Russian attack or atrocity, on a Nato country or facility, to drag Nato into the theatre out of pure desperation by Ukraine.
Anyone else feeling this.
What is your overall impression or forecast on how things will go, looking at all the available data and reports of the offensive so far.
Russia don't seem to be too alarmed. In fact, there is a certain smugness amongst Russian leadership. Almost as if they have the confidence of an ace up their sleeves that Ukraine are merrily walking into. Maybe they're just delusional.
Maybe not.
Even the US and UK intelligence community are keeping their heads down.
Also:
@Baba Yaga
also why are people making a big deal out of Ukraine losing a dozen or so tanks/apcs? in the grand scheme of things its really not much..
It's not, and depending on where the hits occurred, the vehicles could be recovered, repaired and sent back into action. It may, however, also raise questions about how Ukraine will do against Russia's main line of defences if this is the kind of hits they're taking on the approach. As ever, we can only really wait and see, and hope that Ukrainian tactics outfox the Russians as they had been able to do last Autumn.
I would have expected he would have been seen especially once the counter offensive began,he's the chief of staff it makes zero sense he would be locked away in some bunker yet Zelensky completed a multi country world tour and still no public appearance anywhere yes he could have been planning but so would alot of people too , from Ukrainans to Nato ,
Considering it was brought up again by someone else today but yet here we are someone brings something up and claims propaganda but yet can't any the question themselves.....
Nobody has an actual answer to the question where is he ?
It could be something simple he's sick , injured or he's stepped aside or being replaced it doesn't need to be clouded in secrecy If anything it draws attention to it ,
He's previously met troops on the front lines,and in hospitals ,he's done interviews with media ,to absolutely silence .
But again I didn't bring it up
like you say theyre a wee bit busy...in my job at times id have 3/4 seperate 2way radio channels on the go as well as 3 seperate phones plus a landline all on the go for hours,i can only imagine the different communications coming into them around the clock,7days a week for the last while,kind of doubt they want to be fluting around making videos for the masses...
That's where the Nato forward enhanced group are based both at Lielvārde airbase and and camp Ādaži which is undergoing expansion as part of lativas modernisation program
Why would he need to be seen? Budanov hasn't been seen in about 2 weeks either other than some cryptic videos being posted... do you think they should be on the Zelensky world tour also?
It's almost like the heads of defence and intelligence have something more pressing to worry about.
How many orcs would be killed in such a strike? I saw too many fleeing.
Kermit sure loves the Rooskies in this conflict. The banal, po faced chat feigning concern really wore thin last year and yet he's still at it.
burn mazzafakas, burn
There is. I am visiting Latvia this week and saw large enough amount of tanks being carried from Estonia to Latvia and opposite. Also heard from the locals about a huge NATO military base being build right now on the border with LT somewhere not too far from border with BY.
HIMARS destroy 2 more Mstas
So Kermit, why didn't you post the actual link to the source of your information and instead just posted text and a picture?
Was it because you copied it from a Russian sympathiser Twitter account?
who in the best Russian disinformation tradition selectively cut and paste parts of overall articles from Western Media. The very next paragraph which they chose not to include:
The 37th’s reconnaissance push would eventually help other Ukrainian brigades liberate four villages in Donetsk, one of the counteroffensive’s key starting points, securing an early triumph for Kyiv during the most widely anticipated operation of the war.
Here is the complete WP article for anyone who would prefer to read all the information.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/13/ukraine-counteroffensive-kryvyi-rih-donetsk/
...
250 of them over the next few days .
Operation Air Defender 2023
Yeah read the same.
It seems it's linked to this:
Isn't there a load of planes over germany today (or soon) as part of some NATO drills?
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