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June 2023 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Predict the IMT (13.6 is the average 1981-2010 value).

2. Predict the MAX at 25 met.ie locations reporting in "yesterday's weather" each day on their website.

3. Predict the MIN at 25 met.ie locations reporting in "yesterday's weather" each day on their website.

4. Predict the PRC as percentage of normal at a grid of eleven stations.

5. Predict the SUN as percentage of normal at a grid of six locations.

6. BONUS _ Predict the maximum one-day rainfall amount (mm) at any location reporting in "yesterday's weather" on met-ie website.

(date and location not required)

Deadline 0300h on Thursday, 1st of June. Late penalties one point for every four hours after deadline, and one point for every hour after 1500h 2nd June.

M.T. Cranium _______ 14.7 _ 27.8 _ 2.5 _ 050 _ 120 ___ 23.5

NormaL ___________ 13.6 _ 27.0 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 40.0

Will post a reminder of this after table of entries: You can enter a seasonal tropical storm (incl hurricanes) forecast contest here if you wish ... predict the numbers of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes (the familiar count issued by the National hurricane center in the U.S.), and your entry goes into a contest that I host on American Weather Forum along with any others submitted here and also on Net-weather (UK forum) so it's an international contest for sure, already about two dozen entries on American Weather Forum. The official NOAA forecast (median value) is 14.5, 7.0 and 2.5 ... UK Met Office saying 20. 11, 5. My forecast is 19, 12, 4. Another expert forecast is from CSU at 13/6/2. Many but not all experts are thinking that the developing El Nino will suppress this year's outcome.

Will post a reminder for contest partly because three people already entered this June contest before I added the invitation. I also posted a summer maximum contest on UK Net-weather forum (for UK maximum value). We will probably confine our Irish contests to actual heat waves as they appear.

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M.T. Cranium

Nice going for Mr Skinner and Artane2002 (predicted MIN 2.1), sryanbruen (2.0) and several others between 1.6 and 2.6 set to score well if that holds up.

SUN must be around 200% so far. Let's say that remains true after Monday 5th... That means to reach 120% the rest of the month only needs to average 104% of normal.

Just a reminder, today is the last day to enter the multi-forum tropical contest, no late entries, deadline is 06z tomorrow. Mr Skinner has entered by PM in addition to tae laidir and JPmarn who posted forecasts.

pauldry

Hi MT

Tried to register for that tropic contest thing on phone but no luck. No computer so here's my prediction.

Atlantic Hurricane Season 21/ 11/ 8

M.T. Cranium

So noted ... did you try to register at the Am Wx site? You would need to be a member to post.

I am sure one or two Irish and UK weather people are on there under user names that don't make it apparent who they are. I am on all three forums which keeps me busy.

M.T. Cranium

After the first week ...

IMT was 14.6 which is 1.8 above normal. East was a lot cooler than the west (Shannon 16.4, Casement 13.1).

MAX 25.7 MIN 2.1

PRC zero

SUN 237.5% of normal. That already guarantees an outcome of 125% if the rest of the month is merely average.

No customers yet for the Max 24h rain store, but I forgot to post that Artane2002 sent me a PM during the week to say his 200% was a typo for 20%.

Joe Public

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120692068#Comment_120692068

Re. Artane2002 do you mean 20mm rather than 20% ?

M.T. Cranium

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120692924#Comment_120692924

Oh yes, quite hot here and the effects are showing, I meant to say 20 mm instead of 200 mm (not 20% and 200%). Well in fact Artane2002 meant to say that. I got the PM quite a while ago, and didn't post the change, also I noticed that 25.7 at Shannon went unreported in the thread (or I didn't spot it), at first I was going with MAX of 25.3 for June on 1st at Shannon in first week report, then I checked and found a 25.7 a few days ago. Looks likely to be exceeded anyway.

As I said to Artane2002 in our exchange of messages, now you've more or less guaranteed an absolute drencher some place later in the month. I don't know if 200 mm is very likely but 100 mm can fall in a heavy storm quite easily. I have seen 200 mm in a rain gauge after an all-night thunderstorm.

Tae laidir

PRC moved off Zero.

Valentia 2.3mm yesterday. Everywhere else dry!

M.T. Cranium

GFS shifted guidance for second half of month to quite wet, amounts of 70-80 mm showing up now on total rainfall charts, and looks very wet towards end of the run. Could change again though. Guidance is also generally warm, looks quite possible that June will have IMT in the 15s or even low 16s.

Tae laidir

Valentia still holding Bonus Ball.

ECMWF also points to warmth and wet final week.

pauldry

Rain today certain going to beat the whopping 2.3mm

Tae laidir

Moore Park 14.3 mm

pauldry

IMT now at Consensus value of 14.9c and only going up this week so the highest forecast of 16.6c seems it will be closest. Probably 17c West and 15c East by this time next week.

M.T. Cranium

IMT 15.5 after 12 days and likely near 16.0 after today. Oak Park at 29C 1600h, will check for max after 1800.

pauldry

28.5c in Oak Park. Wonder will that be bet? Could be.

M.T. Cranium

I am seeing 28.8 as Oak Park maximum.

pauldry

No doubt you're right MT. I just took a quick glance. Unless the last week gets quite cool this will end up as the highest June IMT on record in Ireland. If the type of weather wev had continues then a 16 to 17c June well within the realms of possibility.

Today was not as warm in Sligo and yet it was still 20c max and 14 or 15c min.

Some models show a cool end to June others as hot as now.

M.T. Cranium

I found the 28.8 report on meteociel but they aren't always final values so we'll see what's official soon. The 00z GFS run looks quite warm except for the last two or three days of June by which time IMT may be close to 16 C.

pauldry

When I searched the highest IMT values for June overall the highest I found was 15.8c but this year bar a few cold nights at the start looks much higher. Am I correct or is the highest IMT much higher than the 15.8c google and chat gpt are telling me. I think in 1989 the West had a roasting June and Knock was 16.4c that year but the overall was in the high 15s. Maybe sryan can verify.

It seems every month I'm looking up what was the hottest version of that month? !!

Jpmarn

The 28.8 degrees high at Oak Park Carlow was mentioned on the RTÉ weather bulletin after the 9 O'Clock News on TV last night.

pauldry

Yep that seems the correct one. Seems a tough one to beat too with showers bubbling up as it gets warm in most of the rest of the month. Still though any prolonged sun in the South or Midlands might do it.

appledrop

28.8 is confirmed by Met Eireann on website today.

M.T. Cranium

A small part of the answer to questions about past June mean temperatures ... I downloaded the available data for Shannon airport, 1946 to present for Junes. The top values are 17.0 in 2018, 16.0 in 1970, 15.9 in 2009, 15.8 in 1976 and 2010, and 15.7 in 1992 and 1995. Looks like a site modification around 2008 as values seem a bit boosted after then. Shannon is usually warmer than our IMT average (of which it is one of five locations, the others are Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement and Oak Park). In the past five years the differential has been in the range of 0.5 to 1.0 relative to average of all five, but only slightly warmer than Oak Park.

(Note: removing download to a more accessible location to be posted soon)

M.T. Cranium

(post moved to new thread)

pauldry

Thanks MT. It seems 2018 is hard to beat. The West and South West and parts of Ulster are very warm for June 2023 but the East is Meh.

So probably the Western half has our warmest June ever but then what? Cool unsettled July? Hope not.

1995 was the year of years. Do I read correctly 19.3c average for August 1995 in Shannon. I do remember it being 25c to 30c many many days and 18c by night.

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT on 16.1, the second week average 17.5 was 4.1 above normal.

MAX 28.8, MIN 2.1

PRC 20% of normal, the second week 40% on average.

SUN now 168% of normal with the second week near normal at 98%.

Maximum 24h rain 14.3 mm

Tae laidir

Newport Furnace 17.7mm yesterday.

pauldry

Shannon Mean at 17.8c now while Claremorris 16.9c even the freezing East at 15.2c .

Looking at MTs dataset the Highest Shannon mean of 17.0 from 2018 looks to be in danger.

Jpmarn

The accumulated rainfall at Valentia has exceeded 26mm so far today Sunday 18th.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120712927#Comment_120712927

The warmest Junes in terms of the IMT used here.

2023 16.4C (so far)

2018 16.0C

1970 15.4C

1976 15.2C

2010 15.0C

1992 14.9C

2016 14.8C

2006 14.8C

I think it's interesting to compare the mean maxima between Junes 2018 and 2023 so far as that has been the most notable aspect of 2023 to date with June 2018 being the warmest on record for most - Junes 1887 and 1940 would probably be warmer if stations had records going back to then.

2023 22.0C

2018 21.5C

So 2023 is so far running 0.5C above 2018 despite Casement being almost a degree cooler than 2018 and Mullingar a few degrees below 2018 too. This indicates just how exceptional the west have had it.

Tae laidir

Valentia outstanding at 30.2mm