I would not be too sure about that TBH. Looks at what happened the former YU after Tito's death. The same fate could be store for Russia with the republics. Just because Putin was able to hold it all together, there's no guarantee that whoever succeeds him will be able do the same. I'm pretty sure that the Silovicki, Oligarchs' and Prigozhin's are not all bosom buddies. It will be interesting to see who emerges as replacement Putin candidates. There could even be one or two unknowns.
Is Putin grooming any successors? It seems like Putin is particularly terrified of death. It's a pretty universal fear, but Putin's looks to be especially heightened. He hid out during Covid, he's cancelling big celebrations so as to avoid being out in public too much, broke the length filter on the iKEA website.... seems like it's something he's doing his utmost to avoid, and not only that, but it seems to me like he doesn't want to entertain the concept of its inevitability. Thus, a true successor is not on the horizon, hype man Medvedev notwithstanding. If he's done anything to bring a successor along, it's to introduce rivals to the throne on the Russian political scene, but I think that's been more to protect his own temporal power by setting them bickering and acting subordinately. I really don't think he wants to imagine a Russia without him, and wouldn't particularly care about that future if he cannot be at the helm.
Putin was a nobody who suddenly became president of Russia. This does not happen unless the FSB wants it to happen. He is a useful fanatic. His replacement will be chosen in the same way.
...
Scholz does a U-turn
Sounds like an ammo dump.
What if a few of the regions planned a coordinated effort to fight for independance at the same time - would be strengthened if Chechens was one of them. I wonder then how Putin would manage that - as he would have frontline do control apart from the UKr one
A Russian protest. Simmering.
I notice that Zelensky was saying in another interview that the counter-offensive will begin shortly. In the past week alone that's the President and the head of the army and the head of the intelligence agencies who have all indicated as much.
This seems to run counter to previous Ukrainian offensives when they were extremely tight-lipped.
They could just be trying to reassure their Western allies but I think there must be a strategic reason for it too. I just can't see what it might be. Does anyone have any theories?
It’s definitely intentional anyway. Impossible to know. Maybe just to keep the Russians consistently stressed and on alert to drain them. Maybe they don’t have the capacity to carry out a counteroffensive so just a misinformation campaign (although I doubt this is the case). Also, constantly talking about a counteroffensive means that if Russia receives good intelligence on the time it might be hard for them to separate that from the endless misinformation.
Probably to **** with people freaked out by their incursions. He indeed previously indicated 'this wasn't cinema' that you wouldn't be told when the attack would premiere etc. just that it would happen.
He could be totally accurate though: they're ready when they want to, it's a matter of picking the time and manner.
We now have thoughts on social media of forces from Ukraine attacking Russia itself, Transnistria, the occupied areas of Ukraine and who knows where. It's unknown unknowns that are not known.
Thoughts are it's what the Russians did amassing on the Belarussian Ukraine border and sitting there before this invasion. It's to encourage the population in the areas in the expected regions to move and leave before battle commences.
morale. the Russians are listening to the talk and they don't want to be there. no relief no equipment. the only thing keeping them in place is the fear of their own side shooting them . when they are getting hit hard in front they will start to take their chances. the ukrainians will be hoping for mass surrenders. they need prisoner exchanges to get kids and captured troops back
Test their willingness to negotiate? In fairness you really couldn't be more wrong.
The constant threat of what's comming is wearing down the Russians, imagine sitting in a trench day after day, night after night, every little sound is "is this it?" that's how you destroy morale. When it comes they won't even know it's comming until it's too late. This is how you win battles (and wars). The Ukrainians really know what they're doing.
No wonder some army recruiters were so eager to sign any half decent or indecent man with two legs.
The mercenary groups were buying Russian soldiers without any say from said soldiers.
Story above how men from Crimea ended up in Bahkmut.
And the needles were crooked....one plain, two purl!!! See? I know my needles ( I think?? )
I'm not surprised..
Its not for nothing ethnic Russians are not popular in the Republic's. The Kremlin has been screwing them over for donkeys years, and of course there's resentment, And not helped by the mobilization imbalance which stuck out like a sore thumb. Basically Ok to feed the country hicks to the Bakhmut meat grinder, while the Muscovites and St. Petersburg residents are getting off, if not exactly Scot free, then definitely at a reduced rate of mobilizations, and more than likely, selected destinations. I mentioned in an earlier post that I think that any kind of revolt will originate in the Republics.
That's SOP for Russia, it would be the same methods used in any of the republics. Once they are actually picked up, its anyone's guess what happens to them after that. In Putin's mafia /terrorist state, there's no such thing as normal human behaviour or decency.
I always thought they looked a bit crochety ;-)
Yieks.
US military equipment from our preposition stock in Kuwait was scheduled for Ukraine, but the contractor etc. responsible for maintain the equipment, completely fucked up, almost none of it is mission ready and needs rework.
The evil beauty of their plan is that it also has the benefit of reducing the likelihood of a revolt in the Republics for the simple reason that they are missing so many of their able bodied young men.
The tweet comment gives the ending away but still worth a watch.
The sheer lack of self-awareness is just... *chef's kiss
Maybe if enough Russians retweet they will get the point eventually?
Can we have a collection here to buy her a pair of ear muffs so she can study? A euro each should do it.
Might be partially why they ensured men of fighting age are getting killed faster. Sure it annoys the people there more but hurts their ability to revolt.
Yes, aside from reducing the nr's of fighting men available for revolution, it also try's to instill a sense of fear in the local population. This is not going to work too well in the Republic's !!! Like Dagestan, Chechnya, North Caucasus, etc. the clan system is alive and well, and very much so, computer age notwithstanding. These deaths and the reasons for them will not be forgotten for a very long time, or forgiven either, (if ever.) Any kind of breakthrough by Ukraine ( especially with these Russian Freedom fighters causing havoc on the border ) could effectively break the security logjam that's keeping the population subdued. Even one Republic refusing to hand over its men to Putin, could trigger a domino effect. Which is why Putin is fighting tooth and nail to prevent it happening.
So they will all have to be individually inspected and a report made on each one. Things like breech block misalignment, is for sure a pretty serious item. But I wonder what's involved in correcting the alignment? Big or small job? Fluid changes? Generally, they're not major surgery, even for automatic transmission's. There will be for sure, a large Nr of veh's / equipment etc only needing minor attention. Sure its a set back, but its not an insurmountable one, and better they find out now than if / when they are needed for their planned purpose. Magic Moran will know a lot more about the effects of this.
It's getting right back to Stalin and his purges:
Imagine locking up your best scientists on trumped-up treason charges. (Of course Clare Daly would say I have no evidence that the charges are trumped-up!)
Russia is really going down the drain.
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