A Russian protest. Simmering.
What if a few of the regions planned a coordinated effort to fight for independance at the same time - would be strengthened if Chechens was one of them. I wonder then how Putin would manage that - as he would have frontline do control apart from the UKr one
Sounds like an ammo dump.
Scholz does a U-turn
...
Putin was a nobody who suddenly became president of Russia. This does not happen unless the FSB wants it to happen. He is a useful fanatic. His replacement will be chosen in the same way.
Is Putin grooming any successors? It seems like Putin is particularly terrified of death. It's a pretty universal fear, but Putin's looks to be especially heightened. He hid out during Covid, he's cancelling big celebrations so as to avoid being out in public too much, broke the length filter on the iKEA website.... seems like it's something he's doing his utmost to avoid, and not only that, but it seems to me like he doesn't want to entertain the concept of its inevitability. Thus, a true successor is not on the horizon, hype man Medvedev notwithstanding. If he's done anything to bring a successor along, it's to introduce rivals to the throne on the Russian political scene, but I think that's been more to protect his own temporal power by setting them bickering and acting subordinately. I really don't think he wants to imagine a Russia without him, and wouldn't particularly care about that future if he cannot be at the helm.
I would not be too sure about that TBH. Looks at what happened the former YU after Tito's death. The same fate could be store for Russia with the republics. Just because Putin was able to hold it all together, there's no guarantee that whoever succeeds him will be able do the same. I'm pretty sure that the Silovicki, Oligarchs' and Prigozhin's are not all bosom buddies. It will be interesting to see who emerges as replacement Putin candidates. There could even be one or two unknowns.
Nuclear weapons tend to set a countries boundaries in stone and previous dissent (chechnya) became an internal war of attrition so its hard to see the regions break away especially as they contain the resources that let the oligarchs engorge themselves.
Yes it is a good thread. Basically, unless its Putin approved, there's no opposition allowed. Any notions of democracy or genuine opposition are strangled at birth.
I don't get the civil war argument. Who's going to fight against/for the current regime? When Putin goes, he will just be replaced - whether it's by a coup or an "election" remains to be seen.
Probably not in terms on boots on the ground, but external factors will definitely shape the changes that will come about after the departure of Putin. And if it means a civil war a new Russia emerges which is capable of reforming itself, all well and good. But that's the question,,who will fight in this civil war?? Prigozhin and his equals? Most likely, I'd say, and that does not bode well for change in Russia. Could Khodorkovsky make a comeback, and if so, would he be good for Russia? For some reason, at least on Twitter anyway, Navalny is taking a lot of flak, where its coming from is another question though.
Sounds to me like it is a deliberate move to ware down the moskovytes with nervous tension before the actual major moves of the counteroffensive are put into action. I don't think it is designed to test their willingness to negotiate but the willingness of moskovyte troops on the ground to run away to save their own lives rather than being turned into fertiliser serving putin.
Maybe it’s more to do with timing.
I don't know why they're so busy talking this offensive up before it even starts. It's almost like they're trying to test the Russian willingness to negotiate. Surely it'd be better to let the action do the talking
Good thread on the Russian opposition.
My view is a bit more pessimistic. In the late 1910s and early 1920s, the Russians went through the process of revolution and overthrowing the Tzar, but in the end it just ended up that they had a Tsar by a different name. Despite the dream of a socialist egalitarian Russia, they still had one guy living in obscene luxury relative to the ordinary person and his 'court' being the most well off. In their next revolution, their people hoped to cast off the shackles of authoritarianism once again, but it just brought about chaos, being poorly implemented with too many forces of corruption getting their piece and dooming the project to failure, such that it once again gave rise to an appetite for the old order in the form of Putin.
Point being that a desire to be ruled by basically a dictator seems deeply embedded in Russian culture and isn't something that would be rolled back in a generation because it's the product of centuries of conditioning. And I think that Russia is welcome to run itself how it likes, but not to try and export that to other nations who don't want it. They cannot handle the idea that Ukraine is going through a sea change of thought and lose influence there, but that is precisely what is happening, and they're failing to learn an old lesson that you cannot bomb a people into loving you.
:-D :-D she's a dose....Russian's have even admitted 2016 interference
Nice uplifting quote from Gen D. Patraeus.
"I think that this counteroffensive is going to be very impressive.
My sense is that they will achieve combined arms effects in other words, they will successfully carry out combined arms operations where you have engineers that are breaching the obstacles and diffusing the minefields and so forth; armour following right on through protected by infantry against anti-tank missiles; air defence keeping the Russians aircraft off them; electronic warfare jamming their radio networks; logistics right up behind them; artillery and mortars right out in front of them.
And most important of all … is that as the lead elements inevitably culminate after 72-96 hours, physically that’s about as far as you can go, and they’ll have taken losses … you have follow-on units that will push right on through and capitalise on the progress and maintain the momentum and I think that can get the entire Russian defence in that area moving, then I think you have other opportunities that will open up on the flanks as well."
First step on gaining independence would be joining NATO, then free from the Russian military threat, gradually begin the unwinding of the Russian "System".( ie Corruption.) Zelensky is currently making good progress in this regard. Georgia is not in NATO, and Putin still has his hooks deeply embedded in it, as recent events have shown. Something like the Marshall plan would work I think, but for it to be successful, Russia would have to be dismantled completely, and a new start made. And that's the problem. maybe if the military were out of the picture, it could work,but getting the mafia out would be pretty big job too.
A well fed demented homeless person judging by the look of him! Not starving himself is the bould Mick, a champagne socialist who prefers to spend his time in McDonalds :)
Whistler has not been the same since he got bit.
In the Russian context there must be the proverbial thousands of steps to be taken in Ru , as currently constituted, to go from where it is today to becoming a functioning democracy. . I do not know how Georgia , Latvia, Moldova, et al, managed it. I assume the fact that they ‘ broke away’ from the USSR that they wanted to take a different constitutional path . BUT Russia, I cannot see how it is going to change from the current setup given that the Olegarcs are such a big part of the setup, the level of corruption and any opposition - official or otherwise a- is immediately managed/put down
PS anyone know why the ‘POLITICS thread is no longer available to post on?
Finland and Sweden have applied to join NATO JUST IN CASE. If anyone require me to fill in the ‘proverbial dots’ then please request same. Am keeping this short as I have been pulled up on Boards sometimes as being longwinded
We need people like u who are good at mattamatics otherwise we could be going all over the place
That man wasnt born, he was knitted
Did she forget the threats of nuking us all ? And lower arm tattoos is not a great look on a politician. Probably says you fool in Chinese. 😝
A demented homeless person purporting to be the MEP for Ireland entered the chamber.
Clare Daly doing God's work upholding Irish democracy for you all 😁
They stay quiet or else. "Else" being in the best case scenario, just a fine. Depends on how avaricious the police are as to how much, but for an ordinary Russian, that could still be hefty enough, but its still the best result. Worse would be jail time, and again that would depend on the length of the sentence. Worst possible scenario? Ukraine, front lines. Back in the early days when there were mass protests on the streets until they were choked by the mass arrests by the police, and non too gently at that. So to get around the arrests, there were women only protesting and what did the police do? The served conscription papers on their Husbands, Fathers or brothers. So these protests stopped too.
The big disappoint I found personally was the Nr of Russians living outside Russia. The first round of mobilization's saw up to or possibly exceeding 1 million Russians leaving, and there has been a steady exodus since ( but Putin has recently made a new law, cutting off this avenue of escape. Its now a criminal offence) Currently, there's 17 million Russians living abroad ( not counting the recent million) So while I believe that there is an anti-Putin movement in existence, its not making much impact. It could well be that they have relatives still in Russia and are fearful of what might happen to them.
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