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Potential Drought conditions?

squarecircles

Are we technically heading towards some form of a drought , the next 10 days look bone dry, and we havent had any rain in well over a week.

latest charts now seem to suggest the dry spell will continue after the 10 day period, particulary in the west of the country.

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ednwireland

Certainly up here in the NW all our efforts are to get rid of water not to keep it so not surprising we run out after a couple of weeks of dry weather.

Thelonious Monk

https://m.independent.ie/farming/news/ireland-facing-an-agricultural-drought-by-the-end-of-the-week/a157796051.html

and we're off

Birdnuts

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120675239#Comment_120675239

You can throw in the ongoing failure to reign in water pollution from various sources

John.Icy

Is it not common knowledge how poor our water infrastructure is? It's definitely not a secret I would have thought.

Our water network is old and we lose nearly 40% of our water daily through leaks (2022 figure), and that's the figure after huge investment into the network in recent years already. In terms of storage/reservoir capacity, I'm not overly familiar but from recent years, I'm assuming it's not super and any prolonged dry weather leaves us on the verge of issues. They are further investing billions into the system to reduce leakage to 25% by 2030, we're late to the game but they are starting the process of investing in it.

Add prolonged dry weather AND our poor infrastructure together and it's why we are so quick to hear of hosepipe bans etc. There seems to be a lot of surprise every year at how drinking water/domestic water works and why it is so precarious here most of the time. You don't drink untreated rain water nor untreated water from rivers, so it matters not a jot what falls from the sky. If we can't treat it all then it's not available for domestic supply.

It also wasn't a wet winter. Drier than normal at all Met Eireann stations. Exceptionally dry for many in February (from mid-January on basically). March was very wet, but you'd imagine a lot of that rain was absorbed by drying land and not as much run off to be collected in rivers etc. as the March total might suggest. I can't find history of the soil moisture deficits on the Met Eireann site to track them over winter into Spring to see how they were going. Did we ever reach actual soil saturation (-10mm)? And if we did, for how long? I'm also not able to follow the water levels websites to see how this has been the last few months. Either way, we really have not heard a lot from Irish Water lately so I'm guessing there's not a huge issue. As my previous post highlighted, different kind of droughts. I'm sure it's feasible to have climatological and agricultural drought without automatically running into hydrological drought.

A lot of Ireland really is not that wet, at least where a large % of the people are. Outside of the Med, throw a dart at a map of Europe and Dublin and some other eastern coastal areas probably get less or similar to them. We just don't get the sun and warmth that makes wetter climates more palatable elsewhere. Somewhere like Albania or Montenegro gets far more rain than the East (or the West!), but you'd chose their summer every time if you like sun and heat. Yes the West/NW/SW is wetter by a decent chunk than the rest of the country, but as far as I'm aware we have no bountiful surplus of water. Lots of money still to be invested and we really need to improve reservoir capacity and get leak loss down to 15% or less. Dublin and the East are going to be bailed out in the coming times by the Shannon too as we won't be able to fulfil our own water needs due to the booming population.

Echo the sentiments on rapidly improving rainwater harvesting to assist throughout the year and remove the reliance on potable water for everything. Peoples plants for example would only LOVE if they had lovely rainwater all year water instead of treated drinkable water. We've a lot of work to do, especially if we are heading into territory where long dry spells are going to be more common.

pauldry

A lot of dying grass beginning to appear now. 50mm SMD in Sligo id reckon. Think it was 90mm one year so that's the lowest I ever remember or is it when it gets to 70mm that's it. What was it in 1976? That's the brown year. And 2018 too.

[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120652809#Comment_120652809

I think it's pretty clear, though, that the weather in your small corner of Ireland has been different to others, and very different to where I am. I first posted about exceptionally dry soil in my area (Cork City) over a week ago and we haven't had a drop since then and not expecting any more for another 10 days at least. The land is as dry as I've ever seen it this early in the year. I can't recall proper frontal rain here for about a month, as all the heavy showers at the start of last month and even the fronts seem to fizzle out or skirt around us.

We had record rainfall this autumn and a relatively dry winter and spring (the washout that was March aside) but that doesn't have much bearing on the current indications that we are headed for a drought. Met Eireann already mentioning it in forecasts.

Ireland is a small country but the weather can be exceptionally localised. I would say we'll be in drought conditions fairly soon in my area at least. The verges are already brown and the grass is yellowing, and this easterly sucks the moisture even more.

WheelieKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120652440#Comment_120652440

No you aren't the only one but thankfully the majority thought it was a bad idea.

[Deleted User]

Its great. 25 days now since a drop of rain here in North East Kildare. Have a paddling pool out for kids so when i empty it i use it to water grass and flowers. Not wasting a drop.

I cant remember a spell like this. The good thing is it isnt too hot either. Just perfect really.

pauldry

It is. Its like the annual Yellowgrass festival now.

Sometimes it's May sometimes it's June or July. That Atlantic conveyor seems quieter than normal these past few months. If El Nino doesn't awaken it later on in the year I'll be quite surprised but we may have to endure or enjoy quite a lot of dry weather before that considering what happened the High. Originally it was supposed to slip West and bring very cool weather for weeks but its lodged itself there and there's nothing to move it yet. Jet almost non existent this side of the world.

[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120671191#Comment_120671191

Can you recall the last time we had a decent spill of rain in Cork? I haven't looked at the data but the verges are already brown and the grass is starting to turn. This deluge to drought pattern we are locked into is bonkers.

pauldry

Looked at Sligo 10 day forecast and it's over 20c the next 10 days. However a few models have Sunday cool while others have it 23c.

We often get weather like this about 6 weeks earlier like in 2020 but this year its later so could get very hot later in the season.

Reckless Abandonment

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120671408#Comment_120671408

Talking to alot of gardeners they really at looking at different plants which handle the dry spels ..(never thought I'd hear that in Ireland) sorry to go off topic but this spring was amazing for plant growth :) some over night rain in the next week or so would add icing to the cake, thunder storm would be the cheery too

[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120671386#Comment_120671386

I guess every little helps though right? 3 weeks worth of water not coming from the main is still a really tidy backup to have :)

It's just typical Ireland that 3-4 weeks of no rain and you're staring down the barrel of a hosepipe ban after months of deluges through winter and early spring.

Reckless Abandonment

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120671191#Comment_120671191

I used to have about 2 weeks of rain water in tank's (I do use a good bit in the garden) the last few years I've ran out on occasions, so this year I upgraded tanks to about 3 weeks of water for this year. and im out as of 3 days ago...I honestly don't remember have many issues over the previous 10 years.

[Deleted User]

How many times do we have to go through periods of drought before someone decides to start collecting some of extensive rainfall we get most of the year and use it for irrigation etc?

.Donegal.

It’s still early days but what’s different about this year compared to last year is how extensive the drought “could” be across Ireland with the current SMD and forecasted precipitation over the next while. Below is last years summer rainfall , there were large regional differences and SMD.

Last June rainfall was above average in most places but below average in the East. Dublin airport 65% of normal with 43.6mm while Newport Mayo had 148mm.

July had below average rainfall everywhere but Finner and Malin head had in excess of 80% the LTA. They both recorded 22 rain days while Oak park Carlow had 6. Shannon had the lowest monthly total with 20.77mm.

August once again below average rainfall everywhere but Newport Mayo recorded 104.1mm 79% of its LTA while Roche’s point recorded 14mm only 14% of its LTA. Knock and Malin head recorded 19 rain days.

I wasn’t in Ireland during August last year but I don’t remember seeing any dead/yellow grass in June or July up here. Now I’m noticing some already.

The SMD are very close across the country in comparison to last year.

Soil moisture deficits (SMDs) across all soil types currently range from 35 to 45mm over northern parts of the country and 45 to 60mm elsewhere. All soils are trafficable with some restriction to growth. With dry, warm and largely sunny conditions over the coming week, SMDs will generally increase by 15 to 20mm, likely ranging from 50 to 70mm, generally, and potentially over 70mm in the parts of the southeast. Growth will thus become increasingly restricted and ground conditions will become hard and dusty.

The ecm precipitation chart has zero/negligible rainfall over the next 10 days. If that transpires we’ll be hearing a lot more about it.

DownByTheGarden

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120668651#Comment_120668651

P:oint being that you pay more for electricity with the smart plans. Even before the war. Meters are not good for anybodies pocket.

pauldry

Grass feeling a bit of the stress on South facing stretches now here in Sligo

Will be interesting to see these 2 pictures 1 week from now.

Thelonious Monk

Is it just because we have awful water infrastructure and a lack of reservoirs etc. that what seems to be one of the wettest places on Earth starts talking about drought after a few weeks with no rain? Or is it because there are so many farm animals reliant on grass? Just seems amazing to me that after so much rain over winter and in March we're already fretting.

Should we not be investing in infrastructure given this could become more common with the climate changing?

Tomaldo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120654372#Comment_120654372

Electricity still has to be paid for, peak time or not. My late father would have more of a problem with my sisters if they left the immersion on or had lights on in a room they weren't using, than if they came home pregnant. Taps running needlessly weren't a problem.

pauldry

Here's a little known fact. Yesterday I was looking up how long since Donegals Finner had rain and it was 20 days. 21 now. However even more astonished when I discovered for that station

RAINFALL

October Above normal

November Below normal

December Below normal

January Below normal

February Below normal

March Below normal

April Below normal

May Below normal

June none yet.

What's going on in Donegal?

The last rain is actually May 20th just like here but 5mm there and 10mm here.

JanuarySnowstor

Grass is getting very yellow here now. I'd say by this time next week we'll be into serious drought conditions...with growth already restricted

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120666596#Comment_120666596

With so much rain from early September to beginning of May the ground isn't too bad but it is starting to dry out at this stage. If we are still chasing raindrop charts in 2 weeks time then things may begin to come more serious.

[Deleted User]

This really is amazing at this stage. This is a lot more unexpected and rare for us compared to the "cold snap" we had earlier on this year.

Now 3 weeks without a drop of rain in NE Kildare.

Long may it last. Its great. Shocked i havent heard calls for a hose ban yet. LOL.

pauldry

It's the convection from days of heat. Hopefully the coast escapes for us sea swimmers.

Gonzo

Enjoy the lovely weather while it is here. It has to be said we are doing remarkably well compared to the UK. I am kinda surprised to see how intense the cooling affect of the North Sea has been on the UK mainland with chilly temperatures not just along the east coast, but it gets right into central and western England including eastern parts of Wales. London is cold as well which is a real surprise. Currently the majority of England and Wales is just 12C. We have seen this sort of setups before in May where the west is warmer but not to this extreme level of difference.

Eastern half of Ireland has not done great with temperatures in recent times due to the onshore winds but at least it's been mostly sunny and while it's a bit on the cool side, it's still several degrees warmer than the majority of the UK mainland. This weekend will see a recovery in the temperatures for the eastern half of Ireland where temperatures of 20 to 21 or possibly 22C are likely to occur away from coastal areas, so the cooling affect will get reduced alot as the high positions itself over us more.

We have at least another week of this sort of setup to come however I do believe we will see a flip around around the middle of June where eastern Ireland as well as England and Wales will warm up considerably compared to current values. We should also turn more unsettled into the second half of the month although I don't see a return to the deluge pattern of March and April any time soon. By mid June any rain that does fall will be well needed by then.

Just looking at the GFS 6z and it's starting to show some showery conditions for the north-west this weekend and the early part of next week which is something I wasn't expecting.

Will this return of showers and rain for the NW verify for the weekend and beyond? I'm not so sure i'm buying this just now. Will wait and see what the 12z brings along with the other models.

squarecircles

Fine spell continuing for the first week of June

By Meteorologists Rebecca Cantwell and Evelyn Cusack, Monday 29th May, 2023.

The current fine spell is set to continue over the June Holiday Weekend and right through the first week in June. The Azores anticyclone (high pressure system) is shifted from its normal position around the Azores (and hence its name) up to the north of Ireland producing an Easterly airflow over Ireland. This is called a blocking high Pressure system as it literally blocks out the rainbelts in the Atlantic and diverts away the Jet stream and low pressure systems to the north and to the south and in fact over the Azores the Azores High has been replaced this week by a Low Pressure system and rain . Over Southern Europe daytime heavy showers and thunderstorms will occur from Portugal over to Greece, while we enjoy fine, dry weather. See the Atlantic chart below showing the Azores High shifted to the north of Ireland and the precipitation forecast over Mediterranean countries.

So lovely, fine, sunny weather in store for Bloom and for all the myriad events around the country for the June Weekend but also for the start of the Leaving cert and best wishes to all the students from Met Éireann.

Sea temperatures are nearly 16°C off Kerry but only 12°C in the Northeast Sea-surface-temperature so an east to northeast airflow makes it feel fresh anywhere along the north and east coast with air temperatures here typically of 15 to 18°C. But apart from these coastal areas and mountains mountains-forecast it will be warm with maximum values reaching 21 to 24°C countrywide and as high as 25 degrees in in parts of the west.

Safety on the Water: Please take great care if out on or near water. Avoid swimming in potentially treacherous locations like flooded quarries. Swim at designated, lifeguarded waterways and beaches, between the flags, where possible. Stay within your depth. Always wear a personal flotation device/lifejacket when boating or angling and ensure that it has correctly fitting straps. Contact the Coastguard if you see somebody in trouble or think they are in trouble on the water or along the coast Dial 112/999 https://watersafety.ie/open-water-swimming/

Visit EPA Beaches.ie to view bathing water quality and get the Met Éireann weather forecast for over 200 beaches around Ireland.

UV: The UV index is 7. Seek shade during peak sunshine hours of 12-3pm, this is when UV is at its highest and people are at greatest risk of sunstroke and sunburn. Cover up with a hat and long sleeved T-shirt. Skin cancer is the most common type of cancer in Ireland and to help prevent it don’t burn. https://www.met.ie/uv-index Remain hydrated. Carry plenty of water on journeys in case of delays due to increased numbers visiting coastal and rural areas.

Fire: There is a Fire Danger Notice – Condition Orange in operation until the 6th June (likely to be extended). Ground conditions are quite dry so please do not ignite naked flames in any woodland or grassland areas. Never barbecue in parks, wildland areas or any site in close proximity to vegetation, trees etc. Most wildfires in Ireland are a result of human activities and are therefore avoidable. Fire-danger-notices

Please do enjoy the fine weather but stay safe. Met Éireann now has a daily audio weather forecast available as a podcast, recorded by our weather forecasters. Search Weather Forecast from Met Éireann on your podcast player – it’s available now on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher and more. Or listen on Audioboom if the player is not available. For your local 10-day forecast www.met.ie or App

pauldry

Looking to see when we get next rain and June 7th a shower. June 10th maybe some light rain. So in general the next 10 days dry.

squarecircles

Reading comments on the netweather forum from english folk, theyre buried in pig muck, its bemusing, theyre getting a dose of what we get in ireland most summers, god love them.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120665201#Comment_120665201

Absolute is actual total <0.2mm.

Partial is an average of <0.2mm over a longer period. So there could be the odd day greater than 0.2mm but if the whole period averages under that then it's a partial drought, if it were absolute it would be over if it goes over that mark.