That rain will take a week or so to dry up so even more delays. The later they start the more western equipment will be ready so it's not exactly a bad thing.
Summer is coming Vatniks :)
The weather is refusing to play ball
Should be over soon though
Good thread on Russian war crimes.
I'm inclined to agree that these attacks in Moscow can be attributed to Ukraine although we'll probably never know for sure. Spreading chaos and uncertainty among the public by staging audacious attacks would be consistent with the modus operandi of Kyrylo Budanov and the Ukrainian intelligence services.
It's not clear what the target was, if there was any. As I Kill You Scum! said, it could have been military. It could also have been infrastructure or even the home of an individual recognised as an enemy of Ukraine. The drones were almost certainly not deliberately targeting random civilians. Regardless, hitting any target would have had no additional strategic value. The strategic goal was already achieved by their launch. The DIY nature of the drones would also be consistent with the reluctance of Ukraine to use NATO equipment on Russian soil.
I expect episodes like these to become more frequent.
Russia still hasn't actually declared war or moved to a full mobilisation of the country. I don't think either would make a huge difference on the battlefield tbh but using a false flag as a pretext to do so could help Putin cling to power a little longer.
The war is already lost, Russia's going to be an economic and cultural wasteland and pariah state for decades and it was alredy in terminal population decline before the "special operation" began. Ekeing out a few more years of his life in his golden cage (bunker) is about as much as Putin can hope for at this stage.
Desperate men don't act rationally.
Ask yourself what Ukraine would gain by attacking civilian apartments.
Answered already.
This isn't a drone type Ukraine has used before, seemed pretty simplistic to me with very slow speed and low flight path. Looks way less effective than the Shaheds.
Answered already. This was likely a newly-designed drone, artisan-produced. Something similar to a hobby r/c plane. Most of the quadcopters used daily in Ukraine were made by lads with 3D printers, lads who in peacetime would be making r/c planes, racing drones etc. These drones will be similarly low-tech, albeit fixed wing and with a 2-stroke r/c engine. Ukraine have an official program for this, they give funding to maker-types who have ideas for low-cost weapons.
False flag attacks are used to whip up public support for military action, or as a pretext for an attack. Last I checked Russia already invaded Ukraine, already mobilized hundreds of thousands. They have no need for false flag attacks.
Ask yourself what Ukraine would gain by attacking civilian apartments. Also ask yourself why they were hit with such small payloads. This isn't a drone type Ukraine has used before, seemed pretty simplistic to me with very slow speed and low flight path. Looks way less effective than the Shaheds.
Anyway this attack completely goes against the way ukraine has attacked. Russia have no qualms about terror attacks against civilians while Ukraine has been attack military facilities strategically. We have also seen false flag events in the zaporizhzhia power plant and in Donetsk City. We are also talking about Putin who has a history of false flags.
Would not be surprised if this is a pretext to a mass mobilisation effort by russia.
Most likely the drone attack on Moscow was carried out by Ukraine, using a domestically produced drone made in an artisan workshop. This is the simplest explanation.
People have been envoking/predicting "false flags" constantly during this conflict. Have any come to pass?
If this is the case (that it was Ukraine) then it will be used again. It's unlikely that they would manufacture eight drones and then simply abandon the design. Ukraine's Western allies do not want Western weapons used to attack Russia but they have no problem with Ukrainian weapons doing so.
They most likely had military targets which they simply failed to reach. Ukraine are not stupid enough to believe that crashing drones into apartment blocks will achieve anything.
no, baba Yaga
I always wondered if Baba Yaga was sung about in Weile Weile Waile.
Paraphrase: "We didn't do it but i bet it'll happen again soon". 😘
Honestly I do think its possible the attack is Ukranian in origin. However I'd be reasonably confident that any civilian casualties would be as a result of their drones either being shot down/ GPS jammed/ or flight error. But this is war and if Moscow was worried about Muscovite civilian deaths they could stop all this nonsense by lunchtime today. Of course they won't.
It does however force Moscow to continuously redeploy their AA systems away from the frontlines. So even if all the drones are intercepted it should be a net win for Ukraine.
Do you mean Baba Vanga, the blind seer?
This is ruSSian paradise
For weeks various drones were filmed over Moscow and not the dji quad or multirotors either,
Would put it past the Russians, to go the false flag route ,if it's not a false flag it's a likely internal issue
you can say with justification that it will make the Russians more skittish too.....one thing people getting bombed and killed in another Country, but its a different kettle of fish wen it stars to happen at home. Sure, Putin will milk it propaganda wise for all its worth, but also, it will cause a lot if unease amongst rank and file Russians. All is definitely not well in the Russian paradise.
I think reports about what US intelligence believes have, by definition, no value whatsoever. It's the nature of intelligence services that there's no way of knowing if what they believe is what they say they believe.
I wonder has tendency of US and other Western countries backing them to be queasy about that kind of action inside Russia been diminished somewhat by the behaviour of Russia/Putin over past +1 year of constant escalation?
Also, If Ukraine is doing this stuff I (edit: would not be) surprised - it would always get more likely to happen as war goes on, if they can develop these capabilites themselves. It must be in military/civilian leader's minds what Russia has been inflicting on them, and that will affect decisions. I wonder what would Kyiv (or some of the other big cities) be like right now if 50 % of all this shít the Russians have been flinging at them for months was finding the target instead of so much being shot down?
Low confidence: Low confidence generally means questionable or implausible information was used, the information is too fragmented or poorly corroborated to make solid analytic inferences, or significant concerns or problems with sources existed.
ATACMS to Ukraine apparently being discussed by the US. Range 300km and easier to launch (uses HIMARS).
Not ruling anything out, but I would believe the Ukrainians are (of course) behind it.
Very smart move.
Of course Putin will milk this for propaganda, but indeed it does make the country look a hell of a lot more vulnerable.
Any proof it was a false flag? No didnt think so.
heres another from Reuters indicating the same thing: US believes Ukraine was behind it.
They have "low confidence" that a Ukrainian group was behind the incident - compared to what, ultra low confidence it was a false flag? The very fact that intelligence officials are stating that Ukraine may be behind it based on intercepted comms and not instead running with the Russian false flag angle speaks volumes.
That's what you get for taking a headline as the story when the headline says the opposite of what the article says.
In the intellegence world "low confidence" means it didn't happen. (Or more accuratly, they just don't know)
I disagree. The majority of stuff on Twitter is pure rubbish. We live in a world where people want to be seen to be in the know and yeah occasionally they are but more often than not they aren't.
its the impossible task ive been given 😁 on that what better way to enter a city?or a heavily guarded compound?most cities have a network of tunnels...some are open to rivers/the sea...
I don't. Always quick to ask for sources never quick to supply them. Or when they do, the sources at best don't really backup what they claim or at worst outright contradict it. I've had him on ignore for a while and I remember why now.
I don't know much about him.
I had to stop following that lad after he was claiming that nuclear weapons were about to be deployed at one point.
You still wonder about beliefs of this tovarisch?
most of information turned out to be true, or somewhat true. Well, a sentence - Kiev will be taken in 2 days - was pure gold that wasn't even lad who's brother's friends sisters cousin who's a taxi driver said.....
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