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Hi all, please see this major site announcement: https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058427594/boards-ie-2026

A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,666 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Germany's Q1 GDP came in worse than expected at - 0.3% which means they are now in a technical recession


    gdp.png


    The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters. — Antonio Gramsci



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 19,955 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    Theres no such thing as a technical recession. Recession means two quarters of negative growth, they are in a recession.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,390 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    True, but it's not a normal country. As a massive arms producer, a significant chunk of defence spending goes on domestically produced hardware. They are also, naturally, a major arms exporter. Haven't done the maths, but I wouldn't be surprised if it almost nets out, aka for every tax-payer dollar spent of defence, the majority will go back into the US.

    Likewise for nat debt, public debt is around 80% (the rest being intragovernmental), and of that 80% around one third of that would be foreign owned. So the majority of US debt repayments are owed to itself.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,635 ✭✭✭fliball123


    A lot of people if I remember correctly predicted that it would be 12/18 months on from when the interest rates started rising and not for nothing but the biggest country into the EU entered a recession in Q1 2023

    https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2023/0525/1385520-germany-enters-recession/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,714 ✭✭✭Deub


    Based on this post, we should only have 28 days to wait for the recession to kick off. I better enjoy the sun now while I can.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 19,955 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    What is it that I'm not getting? When do you think the constant increase of US borrowing limits becoimes an issue. What if its 1000% of GDP?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,666 ✭✭✭brickster69


    The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters. — Antonio Gramsci



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,390 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    A lot? I read the first dozen or so pages of the thread awhile back, and that's not exactly impression I got. On the plus side I'm just glad we made it through the 13 global meltdowns, 8 worldwide starvation events and 16 times the dollar collapsed in the last year.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 42,039 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    I just re-read the OP, comedy gold.

    I'm partial to your abracadabra
    I'm raptured by the joy of it all



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,779 ✭✭✭An Ri rua


    I disagree with the above. There is a growing move away from the dollar, although only a trickle, a taster, as yet.


    I convert the majority of my purchasing power out of funny money and into precious metals since the early 2000s and, wouldn't you know, I'm getting on just dandy...



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,779 ✭✭✭An Ri rua


    I would thoroughly agree that no one (in the Western domain of influence) trusts the Chinese.

    However, the myriad of countries who deal with them for commodities, buying and selling, and also those often same countries who increasingly receive capital investments from Chinese interests will interact with a common currency /trading system. For pragmatic purposes. Those same countries, often but not a guaranteed always, loathe the USA for how its interacted with them.

    Big dogs are all the same to little dogs. Time will tell.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 805 ✭✭✭Relax brah


    Two large tech employers in dublin are set to announce further redundancies next week. I work at one of them (not commenting any further on it)



  • Posts: 24,207 ✭✭✭✭ Ari Calm Vigilante


    Hope your job is saved, but overall there are big changes afoot in the sector.



  • Posts: 24,207 ✭✭✭✭ Ari Calm Vigilante


    I thought the world was unstable in my youth, I visited USSR aged 18 in 1979 for my first ever self-financed summer holiday. Everyone feared Soviet Russia, and raised an eyebrow at my travelling there, but the reality was that they looked after tourists very well, and it proved safe for teenage girls to travel to. The world was developing back then, now it’s evolving in a much more sinister way. The political unrest and power struggles have reached a more dangerous stage. It can’t bode well economically if everyone is cutting off nose to spite face.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,773 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Your cynicism is a bit excessive, I don't think it is "all the same". The dogs just can't ever be secure in their ownership of anything investing in China, no matter how nice they play with the regime.

    That is imo why the rich Chinese themselves (presumably well CCP connected) also seem to have little faith in their own system.

    They leech off the structures of the "Evil-West" like a bunch of ticks. They send their kids here for an eduction, they funnel money abroad and gorge on property and other assets, anything they are let get their claws on to have a nest or a sort of "bug out bag" [in the West] ready if the evil day dawns.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 426 ✭✭grumpyperson


    Didn't loads of Irish buy property in Bulgaria? Have you ever spoke with a Chinese person? Have you ever read anything written by a Chinese person? You seem to have some anti Chinese illness.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,773 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Must have hit a nerve. Yes (not really the same), yes, yes. You should look to yourself a bit, instead of diagnosing the "illnesses" of others posting.

    The "tick" simile was bad choice of words, too harsh and dehumanising, but relationship when it comes to elites + wealthy from China (CCP connected) personally investing in the West is parasitic and I think has low benefit for countries receiving the investments, even if it makes some people rich.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,991 ✭✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    It seems the Facebook layoffs are really about reducing the wage bill and getting rid of low performing resources. They were forced to pay high salaries when hiring during Covid and now realise they can reset with a big layoff and then a new hiring plan. Cynical enough. These big IT firms love to hire Indian resources because they work hard and have lower wage expectations. They won't be the only company to do it but the IT sector will remain very strong for many years to come. The biggest risk to the IT sector is lack of housing and rental costs.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth house?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,620 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    I'm sure that's all true but META have ploughed billions into useless AI platforms and acquiring WhatsApp etc at huge costs.

    FB itself is no longer that popular either. So there's an element of the piper having to be paid now as well.



  • Posts: 12,694 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The big question is, can there be any alternative to the up-down cycles of the capitalist system?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,768 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...capatalism wasnt actually always like this, not as turbulent anyway, this version of it is truly only a few decades old, and its a train wreck for everyone, even for those that are gaining in wealth, there are great ideas out there on how we can change it to a far better version, but that aint gonna be easy.....



  • Posts: 3,754 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The economy is simply an aggregate of humanity's hubris. So no.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,459 ✭✭✭Jizique


    Hello says 1929, and the Wall Street Crash which led to the gŕeat depression, and then the Dutch Tulip Mania pops in to say hi



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,000 ✭✭✭amacca


    Yup...that's it.


    Even if rules, regulations, failsafes, structures etc are put in place to leave the system relatively fairly and transparent they will always be eroded in some fashion over time...it will always be cyclical imo...some generations might be lucky to live in a relatively quiet, stable period directly after a reset but those periods never go know forever.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,768 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ....errr emm, hello!

    ...economic/financial crashes/crisis have actually in fact increased dramatically in frequency and severity only in the last few decades, yes serious crashes/events such as those mentioned have also occurred, but......

    ...we took a serious wrong turn with this ideology in the 70's/80's, and now we dont know what to do about, lets hope we havent opened Pandora's box here! but before this turn, it was actually doing exceptional well at significantly improving the lives of many/most....



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 426 ✭✭grumpyperson




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 19,955 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    Meta and one other ? Or two others?

    I know there was shopify recently too. Difficult to keep track.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,845 ✭✭✭quokula


    It looks like the tech layoffs are all in the rear view mirror now according to many in the industry, it was really a correction from over-excessive expansion during covid back to the norm. There will no doubt be one or two exceptions, Meta are still not in great shape due to their massive failed bet on virtual reality for example, but the sector is still strong.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,666 ✭✭✭brickster69


    The cost of wholesale lending nearly at 4%, last May the rate was 0.3%.

    euribor.jpg euribor.jpg


    The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters. — Antonio Gramsci



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,666 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Inflation in Italy YOY dropped to 7.6% - Exp 7.2% - Prev 8.2%


    The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters. — Antonio Gramsci



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