The DUP refusing to let Sinn Fein have First Minister means a December Assembly Election. Will the numbers change in a fresh Election?
What parties seats are vulnerable or who might make gains in any constituencies ??
Well, yeah, but "largest party" doesn't necessarily mean much in a multi-party system. Ireland is not the UK. Being the largest party doesn't deliver you government.
SF is indeed the largest party in Ireland, but that's on the basis of securing 24.5% of the vote in the most recent general election in the south, and 30.9% of the vote in this year's local elections in the north. They are opposed by two out of three voters in the north, and by three out of four voters in the south. Which means their route to government lies through coalition. And SF's coalition-buildings skills remain to be tested.
I think there's more to it than that.
If you look at the raw vote figures, as opposed to percentages, an interesting picture emerges.
Increase in total vote compared to 2019:
Unionist parties: 5,256
Nationalist parties: 54,815
Other parties: 25,458
Independents: 5,057
No doubt if you analysed the independents you could assign their votes to the unionist/nationalist/other columns, but on the figures it's clear this isn't going to change the overall picture. The total unionist vote is static; unionist parties are just squabbling among themselves as to how to divide it. But the DUP is doing OK in that squabble; their share of the unionist first preference vote is up from 58.3% in 2019 to 60.5% today. So far as the DUP is concerned, the unionist vote is slightly less fragmented today than it was in 2019.
He was born in co. Down and lives in London
I'm sure once he gets a taste of the D4 lifestyle, his head will be turned from living up north where its colder, poorer and distinctly more insular. :)
In all seriousness, I think he lives near where he was born.
Plenty of us do that, even when offered the prospect of living someone ostensibly nicer.
The two posters in that thread who hadn't heard of him have been roundly corrected, as i'm sure you well know, so stop projecting that nonsense.
I and i'm sure many here couldn't give a rat's arse where someone chooses to live within these islands, many Irish people live in the UK and vice versa with British people in the South. The only people who think we've grown apart are those in the North who want to foster the idea that we are different, we're not.
If you think you're that different to us why would you even engage and post here? Do you think that your experience here re-enforces your belief that we're alien to you or is it more a case of endeavouring to justify it by creating a 'you and us' divide?
According to the chart the Alliance vote is in decline since before 2020., Unionism since before 2016.
Not sure how long is needed to see a trend.
Yes. No one seems at all serious about a Ui. As you say not even a plan on the back of a cigarette packet has been produced.
just seen this (and many like it) comment on the thread about paddy Keilty taking over your chat show “Well you could be right on that one! So much for the differing parts of the island being on some sort of mindset towards a united Ireland.” Few seem to have even heard of this household name in our OWC
paddy of course is born and reared in the Uk and I see he has insisted he will be continuing to live in the Uk he loves, and just travelling in to your country to record the show. This might help some of you comprehend how far away a Ui is when a GAA loving young Irish catholic won’t even move to roi when offered a massive contract. We have grown apart but should work on a really good neighbourly friendship
I think people are getting carried away. Yes there has been a great increase in catholic percentage population. But given everything, including brexit fiasco, surely republicans are depressed.
total voting for parties supporting United ireland in 1998 = 39.5%
so where are we after all the sf surges and all the pr hype. Yes you guessed it :
total voting for parties supporting United ireland in 2023 = 39.5%
i.e. lower percentage of Catholics vote for United ireland parties today than 25 years ago.
Carlsberg comes to mind
Turnout was at 54% vs 2019 GE at 62% I think it's too early to make these assumptions for local elections which tend to be reactionary punishment votes for bigger parties, even in NI.
Hah, it's what you inferred - that demographics/ breeding more nationalists is the changing dynamic. The phrase of course originated across the water: https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/close_one%27s_eyes_and_think_of_England and was particularly in use I think after WW1 and WW2 when menfolk were depleted.
Interesting analysis of the Alliance vote and where the middle ground vote is going.
Why Alliance’s best days may be behind them, and why this should worry unionism:
In 2019, the middle-ground bloc gained 21.15% of the vote in the European election, and 17.25% in the Westminster election. Both figures are higher than last Thursday’s local election figure. The graph, below, shows the bloc performances.
The beginning of the Alliance surge was at the expense of the other two blocs. Now the nationalist bloc increase is at the expense of both unionist and middle-ground blocs. The smoothed middle-ground bloc share is declining at its steepest rate since before the Belfast Agreement. This suggests that, yes, demographic change is increasing nationalism at the expense of unionism, but it also suggests that SF is winning over new voters who see that party (and its united Ireland agenda) – rather than Alliance or Greens – as the harbinger of a better, more tolerant Northern Ireland. This is a new dynamic in NI elections, but it corroborates the University of Liverpool opinion poll findings in 2022: 11% of 18-34 year-olds supported Alliance, compared to 19% of 35-59 year-olds and 17% of 60+ voters. It suggests that SF are being supremely successful at portraying themselves as a blank canvas for young voters to project their hopes on. Relentless positivity and on-message coherence is paying off big-time for SF candidates.
Why was the 2023 Local Election the Most Seismic NI Election Ever, and How Might Identity Politics Evolve? – Slugger O'Toole (sluggerotoole.com)
It's very easy to get elected. 462 of those who stood got a seat, only 345 failed. Given the untold riches available to politicians, it surprises me how few go in for it.
The fraction of a vote only applies to a surplus in the first instance.
If a candidate gets 1.5 quotas, then the 0.5 quota is distributed to the second choice candidate for all votes cast for that candidate as one third of a vote. Once that transfer occurs, that fraction of a vote carries on.
The counting procedure I would envisage is as follows.
The main requirement is that the paper ballots are accurately transferred to a computer file, with human assistance as necessary, and all candidates agree this is done in plain sight.
The key point is that the vote is checked that the paper ballot is exactly mirrored by the computer file. Once that is so, the algorithm in the program safely gives the results of the vote accurately.
Very true just I heard a bit about border polls since yesterday and I think we a long way off that being successful yet .
It is a pointless conversation to hold currently because nothing has been planned in terms if a transition period, medium or long term governance, role of the NI civil servants.
Until a plan is agreed, anyone who says they will or won't agree to a united Ireland is making a decision purely based on their own assumptions.
Still think there are a fair number of catholics who would vote to remain within the UK if it came to the crunch .SF had a good election but I think by and large took the SDLP vote with a few exceptions .I certainly have met some Catholics up there thar are doing well but would not vote to join us .Also is most of the Alliance vote not really a Unionist vote just they are more inclusive about sharing power within the union .
Ian Paisley Jnr was on saying there needs to be one unionist party. No doubt he thinks it should be the DUP?? But what will this party view on protocol, gay marriage abortion, the irish language be? The reality is people there is a split in people from unionist backgrounds. Some are staunch some aren't so there will at least need to be two unionist parties in 2023. If there is only one staunch party like the DUP who say no to everthing then moderate unionist will end up not voting for them and the tolal unionist vote will fall.
What we are seeing with nationalism is that it has all or nearly all gone moderate so there only needs one party and SF are sweeping all that vote up. Untill unionism has the capability of going into the midle this wont happen. SF is looking to be the biggest party in NI for a long time to come as nationalism is unified whilst unionism is split.
They seem to have no intention of seeking to woo anybody but Unionists going by this Unionist. He's looking for special electoral conditions for Unionist candidates bringing back memories of gerrymandering.
An Irish government has never threatened to do that downcow.
Time they got on with their white papers then. It’s not as if they haven’t been threatening it for 50 years
If you are right, the the Unionist parties need to attract those Catholics as voters. Yet they are doing nothing to make themselves attractive to catholic, or neutral , voters. This time, by their own admission, they weren't even attracting their traditional voters who stayed away from the ballot.
Perhaps ,Downcow, you could suggest what the UUP or the DUP could do to improve how Catholics see them.
What a weird post. That’s not what I said. It’s just a reality of the current demographics. Over 90s represents the highest % of Protestants and lowest % of catholics. That shrinks year on year until catholics outnumber Protestants for the first time in the 35-39 age group. So it’s the different birthrate of the previous 90+ years that caused that. Condom use would have been much lower amongst catholic families for a lot of those preceding decades and poorer people usually had bigger families back in 50/60/70s etc. I doubt there’s any real difference nowadays in birthrates/family size but those from a catholic background have a larger share of the under 40 population so it’s hard to see much push back on that going forward. The unionist base shrinks year on year and will continue to do so, that was the point of my post.
The difference being catholic support for staying in the union is primarily economics based, Protestants are more likely to want to remain due to identity, ideology and of course economics. Virtually nobody from a catholic background will be contemplating taking up arms if faced with the prospect of Irish unity.
The elephant in the room for Ulster unionism is the prospect of Scotland leaving the union, which is a very real possibility in the coming years. England and Wales might settle into a cosy relationship but it’s not hard to imagine the North being edged out of the rump union once Scotland have flown the nest.
Yes you could ramble on that is at least true. However you don't actually know the people involved and you were not there, so what every stories you decide to make up have no credibility apart from reflecting on you.
In the Seanad they do fractions of a vote to handle surplus and transfers. You could do that with a computer or you could run the program N times with different bundles of votes being transferred to get an average. Either way is messy.
Paper votes mean that observers like tallymen (and women) get to observe the whole process.
There is no need for a quick result. So speed is not an issue.
OCR is not perfect. An Post have a dead letter office to compare with previous history, not something you can do with votes.
Newry, Mourne and Down council was decided by one single vote. And a border poll would be close and the result would be at least £10Bn a year to HMG.
Some degree of denial going on that it would attempt to frame generic "politicians celebrating election" as something subversive. Mind you, the degree to which the DUP present as archaic I'm not surprised something modern like political PR showboating looks alien.
Unionism is at a crossroads of relevancy. It's transparent and plain that what the TUV and UUP lost was not to the gain of the DUP. Belligerent unionism is increasingly shouting from a slowly disintegrating base - one that's literally dying off.
But let's cry and wail about fashion choices. You'd have to drug me to vote Sinn Fein but watching unionism respond about 20 years behind the social and political curve would be funny if they still didn't possess the ability to self-sabotage their own economy and society.
Nor I, God knows what damage they could do down here if they get their knees under the table. Notice Michelle keep going on about 'Tory Austerity', Jaysus they'd bleed us dry if they got a chance.
So is this THE strategy now for nationalism up north? Tell the women to lie back and think of Stormont and let's outbreed them! I suppose it might work over a few decades.
‘Do you think the DUP should go back to stormont?’
A lot of the respected pundits Alex Kane, Alison Morris etc seem to reckon they’ll fashion a win and go back in Autumn
This election and previous had Unionists offerings make no ground and Unionist vote share is falling.
All Unionists would be offering is more of the same in a border poll while others would be offering the UI plan/White Paper.
When that happens then opinion polls will be relevant because now you are asking people to decide on guesswork about what a UI will offer.
